One of Goldman Sachs' trading ideas for 2015 is to short copper and buy nickel. Apparently new supplies of copper are being found in Asia but nickel is expected to be in short supply in years to come. The copper/nickel idea is at the end of a MSN video entitled "goldman-stock-market-in-2015". Search for it. (yahoo won't allow posting links)
Also yesterday, Tom Obrien of TFNN had Greg Johnson, CEO of Well Green Platinum, as a guest. Greg used to be with Nova Gold. They are developing an open-pit mine in the Yukon which will yield chiefly nickel and platinum. Most Nickel and Platinum is deep so it is unusual to find it so close to the surface that it can be pit mined. Also, the mine is located near a paved highway and a port where they can ship concentrate. So there is infrastructure in place to make this a low cost producer not to mention that it is in Canada and not Russia (where there is the risk of government confiscation of mines after they start producing). In 2 years they expect to have permits in place and construction to begin in 2017.
They are one of only 26 mines out of about 1700 mines who sought venture capital that were able to obtain more than $10M. They raised 18.7M in 2014.
Checked their stock (ticker WG in Canada and WGPLF in US) and found it trades fairly thin, about 50,000 shares/day, but it is a very orderly chart. Anyway, Friday it jumped the creek, and Monday it was up 15%. I will wait for a pullback. Good interview, worth a listen. Should be able to watch it from the Tom Obrien Show archive for his 1st hour on Monday Nov 24th. (again you'll have to search for the site, easy to find)
Oh absolutely I agree, in the long term, yes indeed. Thanks for adding the needed clarification. I'm grateful you qualified your premise with the word "eventually". My fundamental bias has always been bearish on this company and that has not changed.
I think Tank is just looking to get out of a bad trade as are a boat-load of longs up in that $10 area. I'll probably be looking to get short, eventually.
One major problem with SKUL. Very little earnings. Earnings will always eventually dictate where a stock goes. If you want to pay 30 times next year's earnings for a company with no competitive advantage, you are a fool.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I don't know, but my thoughts::
The general market will probably rally into the end of the year.
WIN's monthly and weekly charts both show that July bar with a long upper shadow with high volume; a buying climax to a high of 13.30 and then a decline. I would expect a retest into the upper shadow of July. WIN has done a 61.8% retracement of the move between 7.18 and 13.30. A 61.8% retracement is normal. On the monthly, in November it tested the low of July and is thus far back above the July low and on lower volume. That is positive. The price is below the 9-month ema, that's negative, but the slope of the 12-month SMA is still upward. On the weekly and daily the sell stops are just under 9.28. If it gets back down there, have to wait and see if the smart money steps in and buys the sell stops
SKUL's daily chart has that high-volume high at $11.40 from March 7th. It may not test the tippy top of that bar but it is wanting to go for it. It may need to build more cause though.
SKUL went into a trading range in early August between about 7.50 and 8.50; a $1 range. A measured move would bring it to 8.50 + 1.00 = 9.50, which is where it is now. Also, using A=7.40, B=9.10, C=7.86, then D = 9.56 for an AB=CD. It could extend; the next level is a 1.272 extension at 10.02, but I expect (or hope) it'll retrace to about $9 and build more cause.
On Nov 20th SKUL had a nice sign of strength with a high of 9.10. So, it has demand in the background and is a bullish chart. There is of course significant historical resistance at about $12. But, with demand in the background it does not need high volume to move higher and to get bearish it would have to go into a trading range (TR) and then show a sign of weakness (SOW) in the right hand side of that TR. So as I see it you can either hold on or trade out and get back in again at about $9 and essentially pick up a 50 cent gain. I think I'd be inclined to just hold on though because it could just grind higher.
I own 500 core position shares of WIN, all will be long term holdings prior to year end. Cost average 8.10, would you hold to let it spin off into reit ?
Also my break even with SKUL is 10.15, think we will get there or should I sell and try to trade it when it comes back down (long term holding)?
Yep, FINVIZ is a neat site. A great place to begin research. The heat maps and the screener are great too.
If you go to
Yahoo Finance | Market Data | Commodities | Softs | Coffee | Futures Chain
you will see that Coffee futures are in contango. In other words the contract prices are higher as you go further into the future. That is good for a bullish outlook of coffee prices. However, considering long-term investing, when futures are in contango it causes the etf's like JO to underperform the actual futures because when the etf, especially JO which is 100% invested in the front month contract, has to roll over into the next contract they pay for the built-in higher price.
The opposite of contango is backwardation, in which the futures curve is downward sloping, or prices further in the future are less than current.
Cheers for pointing out FINVIZ - it looks like a pretty neat site. Very handy for someone like me, with no feed or experience with futures.
Could also be something to do with the CFO/CEO stock purchases declared this week?
The catalyst for this SKUL move had to be the Best Buy ER. Apparently they showed some sales growth after 10 quarters of sales declines.
Well no doubt demand was proved on the SKUL on the 1-hour stiicks. Gapped up Thursday morning. But you'd have had to be watching it closely on at most the 10-min sticks to have been able to trade it profitably. So they banged it up from Wednesday's close of 8.03 to a high of 9.05 on Thursday back up to test the 8.94 swing of May 2nd. Most of the volume was above 8.69.
So now it is trading between 9.05 and 8.82. Is the TR accumulation or distribution? A sign of strength or weakness will tell. Judging only by the hourly chart, would have to say accumulation since there is now demand in the background. Supply will have to prove itself. On the daily it is testing the 8.94 swing but it has demand in the background. That and the high-volume high at 11.40 that wants to get retested leads me to a bullish bias. Maybe I'll pick some up on a light-volume pull back if I happen to be watching closely enough.
SKUL - On the daily SKUL broke its B-point on lighter volume, so there was a good chance it won't be able to do the entire daily AB=CD down to D=7.78. So far today it has printed a low of 7.86. The volume is light, but it could possibly still make it to 7.78. The thing is that it has supply in the background. It came off the top with heavy volume. With supply proven, it doesn't need volume to continue lower; demand is the side that has to prove itself.
On the hourly chart ( actually I use 65-min sticks), the AB=CD puts D= 7.92, which has been hit. The 1.272 extension is 7.78, same as the AB=CD on the daily chart. But it has caught a bounce on light volume so far. SKUL will be a buy on the hourly chart if it can form a trading range (TR) and then show a sign of strength in the right-hand side of the TR.
JO - The hourly chart for the coffee futures look good. A = 181.10, B = 198.00, C = 190.25. This morning coffee broke above the B-point on 5142 contracts versus 753 at the B-point. So far it has marked the 0.618 extension level. The full AB=CD puts D at 207.30, into the gap formed on Oct 20th. The hourly AB=CD for JO puts D at 37.37. But I wouldn't be surprised if JO continues to extend 1.272 at a price of 38.03. The Oct 20th gap is at 38.41 for JO.
Silver - On the hourly, silver was in a TR for the past 2 to 3 days between 16.45 and 16.08, and this morning had a sign of weakness. Then proceed lower to 15.87 which was a test of the top of the daily TR at 15.88. The intraday weakness was going against strength on the daily from Nov 14th. So now intraday it is catching a bounce back up into the hourly TR. On the daily it has resistance above. I think it has some work to do yet. EXK backed down into its gap but I'd like to see it fill the gap.
Troublesome site, this is my 3rd attempt to post this message. Jim you guessed right, I did not bail on JO. I rely on the futures chart quite a bit. Futures open at 3:15am CST and close at 12:30pm CST, so that causes the JO chart to be gappy. For those who don't have a futures feed you can use the futures page at FINVIZ (no delay on futures data). The weekly pivot on the futures are a little lower at 188.80; so it will probably want to test that. JO closed today (Tues) right at the weekly pivot of 35.56. The weekly pivot support-1 level is at 34.70. The high-volume bar of Nov 3rd has a low of 34.67. So anyway good to know the landscape to judge whether or not to bail rather than just getting scared out or getting deer-in-the-headlights syndrome.
The weekly charts are attractive for the futures and JO. And yes Jim, an SOS in that chart should keep me in for at least a measured move to $53.
A=9.10, B=8.12, C=8.76.
A one to one expansion puts D at 7.78 but it didn't take out the B point with greater volume; only 131k versus 206k at the B-point. So a good chance it won't make it down to 7.78 and the 50- and 200-day MA's will hold it.
Another stock I'm into is RCL, #$%$ cruise line/tr#$%$vel stock which I think looks pretty bullish. I bought in #$%$ month or so #$%$g#$%$in on the wider m#$%$rket dip #$%$nd ebol#$%$ sc#$%$re. I sold h#$%$lf #$%$bout this level #$%$ few weeks #$%$go, but held onto the other h#$%$lf #$%$s I'm hoping for #$%$ bre#$%$k out. It's been testing resist#$%$nce #$%$t $70 the l#$%$st few weeks #$%$nd retr#$%$cing, but looks strong #$%$nd keeps bouncing b#$%$ck. Tod#$%$y it's put in #$%$ new #$%$ll time high of $70.33 but dropped off below $70 #$%$g#$%$in to close #$%$t $69.82. Oh well, #$%$nother d#$%$y. Hoping this me#$%$ns it will eventu#$%$lly bre#$%$k out of the old ch#$%$nnel into new territory with higher highs to sell into. M#$%$y be worth #$%$ look. All the best.
OK Iu0027ll try again, my previous post seems to have disappeared. My buy order triggered this morning at $35, so Iu0027m back into JO today. Presuming youu0027re still in, I guess you didnu0027t bail on Monday when the 9day EMA started to turn down, due to all the other bullish indicators for JO? Iu0027m aiming to get out of JO around $41-42 when it tests the top of the range again. Are you looking for a longer term hold then? Or only if you see a sign of strength in the near future?
Correction : Picked up JO at 35.75.
The monthly chart on this looks really good. A high flag (TR) within and above the high range of the super-strong SOS of February. Coming off the bottom of that TR now. It bounced off the sharply rising 12-month SMA. It is in the right hand side of the TR, so a sign of strength in the next couple months would portend a move out of the range, above $43.