Look again. JO's price is still below the 9-day EMA and the 9-day EMA is still sloping down, as of Friday Oct 31st. The 9-day EMA is just a check for me. It is a fast MA; not much lag. For a long, it should be turning up and I like price to close above it and continue to close above it, otherwise I have to carefully consider getting out based on other evidence.
On the monthly chart, JO was marking down from May 2011 to Nov 2013. Then it marked up Dec 2013 to April 2013. Now it is range bound but the 12-month SMA is sloping sharply up and is currently at $33.03. For November the 12mo SMA should be about $34 and change. So the monthly chart is bullish...it has demand in the background, specifically the month of strength of February 2014.
On the weekly you can see a trading range (TR) between a high of 41.98 and low of 33.44. It dipped below the range (a spring) fro 3 or 4 weeks but then got back up into the range. There have been two upthrusts above the range, one in April and another 4 weeks ago. The spring was met with lack of supply and both upthrusts were met with lack of demand. So now, after testing demand it is heading down and testing supply and supply is drying up, the weekly volumes are decreasing. Overall the weekly chart is still bullish. It is in a TR but it has demand in the background, weeks of strength back in February. Yes it could break down out of the TR but with demand in the background, supply needs to prove itself. There has to be a sign of weakness(SOW) to turn this chart bearish. It is bullish until proven otherwise. It does not need heavy volume to move higher, demand has already proven itself.
On the daily, as you pointed out Jim, the volume and price volatility is decreasing. Price is sitting just above the 200-day SMA, 35.49-close vs 35.21. The lower channel line is just below in the high 34's. Next week's pivot is just above at 35.62. Next month's pivot is 37.72. There is a 70% chance it will get hit in November.
Thanks for explaining in a bit more detail OP. I was close to pulling the trigger when JO dropped into the low $34s this week but held off. I read a couple of articles which made me think carefully about holding long on coffee and thought maybe I'll take a leaf out of your book, and wait for a close above the 9 day EMA. Today it looks like the average is starting to turn up. Maybe today it will also close above and I look to enter.
I was reading about an upcoming rebalancing of a commodities index which may negatively impact coffee prices in January. And that there may be some unwinding of large speculative long positions going on, given the step up in price already achieved this year - (http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sugar-a-better-bet-than-coffee-or-cocoa-says-abn--7659.html). Gave me pause for thought on holding long, made me wonder if JO might be consolidating before taking a dip below the established channel, rather than upwards as I'd hoped. Today's action looks more bullish though, confirming the case for continued demand in the background, so I may get in if it closes above that EMA.
All the best.
Picked up some JO yesterday at 34.75. Good to see it moving up today; over $36 as of this writing. Good volume yesterday compared to the week of prior trading but not what I'd call a good sign of strength but the indicators all look good on JO and the front-month contract. Full Stoch 14,3,3 crossed above 20, MACD 12,26,9 histogram went positive, and RSI14 crossed 50. It's riding above an up-sloping 9-day EMA so I'll just let it ride.
Could be just technical. After the buy climax (bearish engulfing candle) there were 2 days of down with lighter volume and then stopping action on Tuesday. Wednesday it shot back up to test the 1/2 way point of the bearish engulfing. It hadn't built any cause so you knew that that move couldn't be sustained and the volume was way light given the large price increase. So the next day it broke down.
The market makers make money by making a market; they have to take the price to where they can get some action. So they test and retest prices where there was good volume. I think that is all that was happening. But that high volume off the top, the bearish engulfing on Nov 6th, would concern me if I was long SKUL.
The PM's are showing strength today; broke out of trading range (TR). Going to wait for price to come back and retest the top of the TR I think. EXK and SLW used to be my favorite miners to trade but need to re-evaluate.
Correction : Picked up JO at 35.75.
The monthly chart on this looks really good. A high flag (TR) within and above the high range of the super-strong SOS of February. Coming off the bottom of that TR now. It bounced off the sharply rising 12-month SMA. It is in the right hand side of the TR, so a sign of strength in the next couple months would portend a move out of the range, above $43.
OK Iu0027ll try again, my previous post seems to have disappeared. My buy order triggered this morning at $35, so Iu0027m back into JO today. Presuming youu0027re still in, I guess you didnu0027t bail on Monday when the 9day EMA started to turn down, due to all the other bullish indicators for JO? Iu0027m aiming to get out of JO around $41-42 when it tests the top of the range again. Are you looking for a longer term hold then? Or only if you see a sign of strength in the near future?
Another stock I'm into is RCL, #$%$ cruise line/tr#$%$vel stock which I think looks pretty bullish. I bought in #$%$ month or so #$%$g#$%$in on the wider m#$%$rket dip #$%$nd ebol#$%$ sc#$%$re. I sold h#$%$lf #$%$bout this level #$%$ few weeks #$%$go, but held onto the other h#$%$lf #$%$s I'm hoping for #$%$ bre#$%$k out. It's been testing resist#$%$nce #$%$t $70 the l#$%$st few weeks #$%$nd retr#$%$cing, but looks strong #$%$nd keeps bouncing b#$%$ck. Tod#$%$y it's put in #$%$ new #$%$ll time high of $70.33 but dropped off below $70 #$%$g#$%$in to close #$%$t $69.82. Oh well, #$%$nother d#$%$y. Hoping this me#$%$ns it will eventu#$%$lly bre#$%$k out of the old ch#$%$nnel into new territory with higher highs to sell into. M#$%$y be worth #$%$ look. All the best.
A=9.10, B=8.12, C=8.76.
A one to one expansion puts D at 7.78 but it didn't take out the B point with greater volume; only 131k versus 206k at the B-point. So a good chance it won't make it down to 7.78 and the 50- and 200-day MA's will hold it.
Troublesome site, this is my 3rd attempt to post this message. Jim you guessed right, I did not bail on JO. I rely on the futures chart quite a bit. Futures open at 3:15am CST and close at 12:30pm CST, so that causes the JO chart to be gappy. For those who don't have a futures feed you can use the futures page at FINVIZ (no delay on futures data). The weekly pivot on the futures are a little lower at 188.80; so it will probably want to test that. JO closed today (Tues) right at the weekly pivot of 35.56. The weekly pivot support-1 level is at 34.70. The high-volume bar of Nov 3rd has a low of 34.67. So anyway good to know the landscape to judge whether or not to bail rather than just getting scared out or getting deer-in-the-headlights syndrome.
The weekly charts are attractive for the futures and JO. And yes Jim, an SOS in that chart should keep me in for at least a measured move to $53.
SKUL - On the daily SKUL broke its B-point on lighter volume, so there was a good chance it won't be able to do the entire daily AB=CD down to D=7.78. So far today it has printed a low of 7.86. The volume is light, but it could possibly still make it to 7.78. The thing is that it has supply in the background. It came off the top with heavy volume. With supply proven, it doesn't need volume to continue lower; demand is the side that has to prove itself.
On the hourly chart ( actually I use 65-min sticks), the AB=CD puts D= 7.92, which has been hit. The 1.272 extension is 7.78, same as the AB=CD on the daily chart. But it has caught a bounce on light volume so far. SKUL will be a buy on the hourly chart if it can form a trading range (TR) and then show a sign of strength in the right-hand side of the TR.
JO - The hourly chart for the coffee futures look good. A = 181.10, B = 198.00, C = 190.25. This morning coffee broke above the B-point on 5142 contracts versus 753 at the B-point. So far it has marked the 0.618 extension level. The full AB=CD puts D at 207.30, into the gap formed on Oct 20th. The hourly AB=CD for JO puts D at 37.37. But I wouldn't be surprised if JO continues to extend 1.272 at a price of 38.03. The Oct 20th gap is at 38.41 for JO.
Silver - On the hourly, silver was in a TR for the past 2 to 3 days between 16.45 and 16.08, and this morning had a sign of weakness. Then proceed lower to 15.87 which was a test of the top of the daily TR at 15.88. The intraday weakness was going against strength on the daily from Nov 14th. So now intraday it is catching a bounce back up into the hourly TR. On the daily it has resistance above. I think it has some work to do yet. EXK backed down into its gap but I'd like to see it fill the gap.
Well no doubt demand was proved on the SKUL on the 1-hour stiicks. Gapped up Thursday morning. But you'd have had to be watching it closely on at most the 10-min sticks to have been able to trade it profitably. So they banged it up from Wednesday's close of 8.03 to a high of 9.05 on Thursday back up to test the 8.94 swing of May 2nd. Most of the volume was above 8.69.
So now it is trading between 9.05 and 8.82. Is the TR accumulation or distribution? A sign of strength or weakness will tell. Judging only by the hourly chart, would have to say accumulation since there is now demand in the background. Supply will have to prove itself. On the daily it is testing the 8.94 swing but it has demand in the background. That and the high-volume high at 11.40 that wants to get retested leads me to a bullish bias. Maybe I'll pick some up on a light-volume pull back if I happen to be watching closely enough.
The catalyst for this SKUL move had to be the Best Buy ER. Apparently they showed some sales growth after 10 quarters of sales declines.