Playing for bounce off a potential double-bottom. Doesn't a part of of your thesis include testing the prior lows on lower volume? I know there is no confirmation yet, and next couple of days might be the true tell. But, if the bottom holds I expect a powerful move to the upside 13.3-13.85 next week. That is all I need to make a handsome return on my July calls, sold some out of the money puts to finance this well. But, if July lows break then I'll prob. get out it real fast.
Boy! About every call I've made on this is off. First I buy way back in August at $5.52. Sit thru a high at $6.57,then double up at 5.73, stopped out at $7.13 before it cruises to $8 and now the 8 weekly shows buy at $6.90. And no money to buy because I put everything short using DOG three weeks ago and have to see where it will take me. As Jesse Livermore said, "it's the sitting that makes you the money." I should listen.
Microsoft announced they sold 4 million XBoxOne gaming systems last quarter. Skullcandy Astro headsets are 70% of the 200+ market. Kinda hard to believe (along with 3 million PS4's sold during the same period), that there wasn't a significant sales boost to Astro gaming. Even at 1% that's 70,000 head sets or 14 million plus in increased revenue (based on the low end of 200 bucks). There were additional tags and accessories along with other sets sold as well. I would estimate the Astro quarter to be over 20 million and 50 million year/year. That's 25% of Skullcandy's revenue. Add in additional Skullcandy gaming headsets (PLYR 1 and 2 and SLYR) and I wouldn't be surprised if gaming came in at nearly a third of their y/y sales. Gaming is a strong and profitable segment for SKUL. Air Raid was over subscribed last quarter (sold out) as well as some Crusher colors. They will hit the 70 million sales mark Q4. Ink'd, jib and 2XL as well as the Hesh and Smoking buds II series picked up steam. LOGI smoked the quarter with increased sales, expect Skullcandy to do the same. IMO
Yeah I see what you were looking at, that July 5th low at $11.99 and it did come into 12.05 (a near test) with much lighter volume than July 5th.....BUT....the volume was not shrinking as it came down (comparing to recent days).
So today it gapped under 11.99, so far down to 11.75.
The weekly chart looks better. It got under that $11.99 on what will be much lighter volume. But it has supply in the background...the week of Dec 2nd it gapped down on huge volume. It's not a buy until the selling volume drys up and then not until demand proves itself....then the buy is on a retracement.
Sounds like you're beating yourself up for making money......I'm just weeping for ya man.
In my vernacular, being "stopped out" refers to a loss......ie., a stop loss order. However, you bought at 5.52 and again at 5.73 and then you say you "stopped out" at $7.13. Well if you sold at 7.13, that's a nice gain in my book not a stop loss.
I try to remember that I don't have to have the bun with my hamburger when all I really want is the meat.
"Sitting" works if you know what your doing....most people don't....most just sit and hope.
Obviously, the bottom did not hold. If the market continues to falter then 10's might be in the cards, but would like to see an oversold bounce next week first.
Well if it's any consolation, I sold a third of mine and will be looking to get back in to the limit at some point here. Maybe even tap the margin if it gets too low. Got a question for you. Do you strictly day-trade or do you hold your positions for multiple days?
I do follow the technicals but I get a bigger picture looking at the SMA's, stochastics (slow), and least the MACD. The final decision is looking at the hourly volumn. And how you got that BUY signal is beyond me. Your buy was at a way overbought condition. Use those averages. And I use candelsticks but I want those sure things. Hammers and shooting stars. Doji's, harami's, and spinning tops are nothing but coin tosses.
You think I own a controlling interest in the company or something? LOL
I'm in it to win it and thats $35 per share price target.
I'm looking out to 2016. So no selling from me.
So if you swing trade, why the heck would you do it in a company that you have no faith in? When I first owned SKUL, the day before the catacalysmic earnings release a year ago, I was thinking this might be the turnaround. By the next morning I had lost 8k and it was then that I decided to hold for the ride. I added significantly as it went sub 5 and in the end it worked out great. (even though the big rebound is still on the horizon.) My point is this, if you swing trade in a company that you feel is truthfully on the decline, then you have no safety net. My net was to add and hold until things played out. You may think that in the short term SKUL may retract and that's plausable on a "no news basis" but for you to swing trade in a stock that you feel is about to roll-over is unecessarily risky. The safefy net is a second chance! Use it.
I'm not going anywhere. 2 things are going on here that I think need to be brought up here. 1 - There is an earnings release forthcoming (by end of February I would guess). This stock will react (depending on the call) with high volume. I'm betting we get some positive news and a few upgrades following the call. 2 - the broader market is pulling back. This stock seams to react better when the market turns down. There is a lot of money being put on the sidelines. Stocks like SKUL that have been beaten down get the attention of funds. Having said all this, we are close yo getting into the 6's before earnings. I would say that if we break 7, it is time to load the truck up. IMO
No bounce yet... Looks like the selling volume is drying up. But, another downgrade or currency issue can trigger another leg down.
OP it's really not frustrating for us. At least not for me. Frustration comes when ones expectations are not met when they are expected to. The mentality of the long investor does not expect the share price to go from cost basis directly to final target price with out making stops along the way. That would simply niave. I think most of us are quite comfortable with the stock price where it is hanging, considering we are up from the low fives. When the next few quarters of data are released, that is when there is potential for dissapointment. ...but that is not going to happen with this stock. Not now..
Yeah I can't say I'm too frustrated either OP. SKUL doing and looking a lot better now that 3/6 months ago and it's pretty much on track with my expectations. I don't think anyone expected it to keep rising above 8 without pulling back, it was pretty obvious so I wouldn't feel too smart about calling it. Once again, the next EC is the big one, if it disappoints then we could certainly head back to 6 or 5 even. Who knows? If it surprises to the upside I see it pushing through 8 to 9 and looking good to continue rising as the company improves through 2014.