I truly think that afternoon support is indicative of the solid quarter which we are having right now. Category strength is phenomenal. Holiday numbers are solid. We are no doubt a fantastic value play. Even if we ride the coat-tails of Beats, our sales will surpass the bleak forcast. They are starting to buy the 2nd half 2014 earnings right now, which I think is prudent. Just can't understand how it fell to 5.35 in the first place. That was rediculous.
I think 2013 is a write off… but does anybody really believe that Skullcandy won't do more than $216m in sales for 2014 or make more than $0.08 a share? If only a MODERATE recovery (and the data is pointing to something much stronger), then we could see these estimates blown away. A return to $250m in revenue with some traction in gaming and the air raid (both booming categories) and that would represent 25% YOY growth, which would justify a share price back in the teens. I still reiterate my view that the bottom is in as far as sales declines. Yahoo has the earnings in March but I think they will get released early February, which is right around the corner. Important call as Q1 guidance will be in the limelight. I still expect it to be relatively weak but I think it will beat expectations and accelerate throughout the year. People are underestimating the team that Hoby has put together and underestimating Hoby himself. The recent strength in the category and with Skullcandy being the market leader in buds, really amplifies (to steal Hoby's favorite word) the possibility of a takeover, which I am still convinced will happen at some point.
Onepoint, I am looking for indicators to short Macys, M. I am late to short sears now :(. I need to understand how the price change to the volume. Where do you go to learn about the price action with volume? Another question. Why VXX does not follow S&P 500?
Stafford - Agree that December is the Key. However, if your statement about NPD data is accurate, that is good news for potential Q4 results.
My only concern is that 1 analyst has not lowered their guidance which has elevated the Rev and EPS expectations for the quarter.
They have had a hard time keeping The Air Raid in stock (Amazon and their own web site). Demand for that product must have been overwhelming.
"The market IS NOT fond of SKUL" is a good reason to buy now on this dip. By the way TheStreet is one of the worse public offerings of stock in history (basically worthless now). How can anyone listen to their OPINION?
"Skullcandy (NASDAQ:SKUL) was downgraded by TheStreet from a 'hold' rating to a 'sell' rating in a research note issued on Thursday, AnalystRatingsNetwork reports."
Market is not too fond on Skullcandy right now. We'll see if 2014 changes anything.
market data was released 3 days ago showing the headphone category grew 75% Y/Y in November, then yesterday the breakdown by vendor was released which showed a good recovery by Skullcandy. Down slightly Y/Y with higher average selling price. looks good but its December that will really tell if its bottomed. All signs point to it being a very strong December.
I track three smoothed ROC's (rate of change indicators), the 6, 12, and 24-day smoothed ROC's all bottomed yesterday and turned up today because of the stopping candle today. When all 3 turn at the same time it is very bullish. Need to see some follow thru to confirm.
Just to clear that 5.45 mid-TR line is important support. It closed today just above it at 5.46 with a stopping-action candle, a spinning top doji.
It filled the remaining open gap of Sept 6th, 5.45 to 5.48.
The last stretch above the 20sma was about 50 cents, today it got stretched below the 20 by 47 cents. Expect reversion to the mean.
5.45 is the mid-line of the trading range that began back in March. The TR is between 5.06 and 5.84 with mid-line of 5.45.
On the daily chart there is an AB=CD down. A = 6.68, B = 5.70, C = 6.10. These would give a D point of 5.12 for an AB = CD, however on this C to D leg it did not take out the B point (5.70) with greater volume which says the probability of completing the AB=CD is low. The B-point volume was 332k versus 264k on Monday the 9th.
On the weekly chart, the low-print stick was the week of 4/29 with low of 4.80 and high of 5.37. So far this week it has tested that stick with a low of 5.36 and has so far closed above it. The volume the week of 4/29 was 4.85M. The volume so far this week is 1.08M. Extrapolating to the end of this week, 1.08 x 5/3 = 1.80M. So it is coming into the low with 1.80 vs 4.85; not even close and not enough to bust lower.