Good point on the REAL v USD pop. I hadn't previously considered that aspect of the trade, but it certainly makes sense for that to have contributed a good portion of the rise on Monday.
I do look at the futures but only as a quick guide, not really intra day. Glad to see JO coming down again now. I'm going to wait and will have a crack if it tests $34 again.
I am an investor in SKUL and signed up to yahoo message boards today to defend my stock against your short bias. As I said, I looked at your track record over time and it is dismal. Doing the opposite of your historical recommendations is very profitable, so I'm comforted by being long SKUL when you are short.
You are resorting to lying and cheating to support your short.
For example - you say inventories are at a record. This is simply not true. Inventories were $50.8m in Q2/14, whereas they were over $55m in 2012. Inventory days are 86 in Q2/14, down from 92 in Q2/13. Inventory days reached a peak of 125 in Q1/13. So inventory levels are improving.
Another example - you say accounts receivable are at a record, but that is again simply not true. A/R was $44m in Q2/14, whereas they were over $75m in 2012. A/R days were 74 in Q2/14, down from 75 in Q2/13. They have been over 85 before.
Another example - you say provision for returns are 11% and imply that's negative. But those provisions are up from 5% in early 2013. If provisions are going up, that's a negative impact to earnings. So SKUL is outperforming earnings expectations despite an increase in provisions for returns.
Why do you make unsubstantiated claims? Aren't you reading the numbers?
To other investors in SKUL: verify everything this author has to say. His track record of picking stocks is very poor, and he will say anything to argue his point. Do your homework. Don't trust t_mcc.
I am certainly thankful you created your id today to support your company/buddies. Good job in getting Walmart to at least but up a banner. Too bad there are no high dollar products. It's just like when they got their financial planning buddy in LA to write an article on Seeking Alpha.
Thanks for your concern, but I am up 150% on my puts, soon to be 200% when this pig drops back below $7.
There is an air of desperation when a company has to support itself on message boards. Just like when they do every trick in the book to boost GAAP earnings. But if you have enough experience to read financials critically, and just follow the cash, you can see through the smoke and mirrors.
How about record inventories and A/R, provision for returns at 11% of sales; I'll explain it too you soon. They are overstating their GAAP earnings and revenues, and if they wrote off the obsolete crap the GAAP earnings for the last two years would be half.
I would encourage you to read the latest transcript. The first round of sales to Walmart don't include Crushers or Air Raid, and only include Ink'd, Jibs and Uprock. Also, when you go to the Walmart Headphones section of the website, there is a large banner that prominently displays Skullcandy. Sounds like things are going well with Walmart. Management said on their Q2/14 call that Walmart sales are going at or above their expectations.
The only thing that is a disaster is your track record. I have followed your posts and your recommendations are plain awful. You are obviously short here, are losing money, and are just trying to spread fear and misinformation. Sad.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
TMFCop Rich Duprey brought up some interesting points.
Despite attempts at fusing music, fashion, and extreme action sports into a meaningful lifestyle brand, Skullcandy is subject to the fads inherent in each, which helps explain why it's had difficulty gaining traction. As the tumbling stock price shows, its footing with investors isn't so sure either, and though it routinely gets a bounce from persistent takeover rumors, that's proved an ephemeral route as well. It doesn't possess the cachet, talent, or product of a Beats to attract a buyer that would be willing to pay a premium for its business.
Worse, the retail landscape remains a wasteland. Many of the top outlets for its products are awash in a malaise that bodes poorly for the future. One of its premier partners, apparel retailer Tilly's, said it continues to experience weak consumer trends and guided second-quarter comparables to a decline in the high single digits, while Zumiez sees them decreasing in the low single digits.
It's also expanded its distribution to larger, mass-market partners, but their outlook isn't so hot either. Target is still reeling from its data breach scandal and dropped full-year guidance to $3.60-$3.90 per share from $3.85-$4.15 per share, RadioShack may be going out of business as it struggles to contain costs amid a dramatic falloff in business, and #$%$ Sporting Goods sharply scaled back its comps guidance from a 3%-4% increase to just 1%-3% as gun buyers no longer feel the threat of further restrictions. In short, Skullcandy is going to face continuing difficulties making sales because its partners are suffering as well.
The turnaround growth story is one that's trotted out by its ardent bulls, both product users and investors (many of whom are undoubtedly one and the same), and it's still in the very early innings of the makeover, but the company has yet to prove it's actually working. Skullcandy may be flat from the start of 2014, but if trends continue as they have been, this may end up looking like one of the high points of the year.
I don't believe that SG&A really fell by a million. At least half of it can be explained by legacy executive salary and bonuses from Andrus, Alden, & cohorts falling off of the books. A little more drop is from the accounting change to recognize bonuses by sales, not quarterly. Then they can bury it in the only cash flow positive quarter, the fourth. The party in Rio for the World Cup could arguably be amortized. A reasonable individual should not believe that SG&A did or will drop with any significance.
It is by no means a proven fact that these guys are brilliant marketers. It is not proven that the same marketing model to sell trendy outdoor sporting rags (clothing) to rich kids will crossover to mainstream consumer electronics.
I call it the spaghetti against the refrigerator model. They throw away money at it and see what sticks. How many of you know of Andre Iguodala? Who needs him when you have Kevin Durant, unless you just want to go the Warriors games. They could have gone into shell for a year, wait for the channels to unstuff, and done the same. Party on boys, on other people's money.
The fact that they hired a real consumer electronics guy from Sony says much about the success of their endeavors. Party on Wayne. Party on Garth.
Go to Walmart, put in Skullcandy - Dept Electronics. After ten weeks, only 6 products between $10 and $35. No Crusher, no Air Raid (would cannibalize Beats), no refurbed Navigators as women's line. Why are they spending $27 million a year in "demand creation expenses" to sell disposable earbuds?
Today's pop in coffee may have been related to the rise in the Brazilian REAL vs the USD. Coffee is demand inelastic so it is all about supply and Brazil is far and away the largest coffee producer. So, a higher REAL takes more USD's to buy same quantity of coffee produced with REAL capital. Could be, I guess.
Today could have been stopping action: a clear rejection of lower prices and it held the high of the range.
JO's relative volume on the pop looks better than the future. The futures traded fewer contracts than the down days of last Thursday and Friday. Dunno for sure but could be worth a shot on an intraday retracment. Problem is JO opens at 8:30 central and the futures open at 3am. [Don't know if you watch the futures, but coffee opens at 3am central and closes at 12:30pm.] By the time JO opens any retracement could done. And I'm not sure I want to chase price since it is going against a strong downtrend of the past week or so. May have to wait.
Thank you sir, always good to get your OPinion.
I almost jumped back in Friday (I also exited a long trade on 1st August) but held off. Shame I missed out on today's rise but If it drops back to that level, I'm thinking anything around $34 would be a decent entry to go long again.
So for stopping action you're looking for what? Reducing volume on the way down to support and then a bounce off of one of those levels?
Sorry for the off topic folks but not much happening with SKUL at the minute anyway ;)
I exited a long position in JO after that reversal bar on Aug 1st. So, just watching it now.
JO and the futures closed the week at low end of the range and Friday closed below midrange. Also, coffee futures closed under the demand bar of July 3st, so I'm still waiting.
But you may be on to something. Looking at a volume-weighted profile for a 2-year- to 5-year-long weekly chart shows the point of control (POC) at $34 and change for JO. The POC for the futures on a 5-yr-long weekly is down at $137.40 per 100#. However the profile is thick at about $178; just below Friday's close of $181. So it will take some effort to get much under that level.
On a 6-mo-long daily, JO has a POC at $34.85. For the same period, the future's POC is a bit lower at $173.74; which is near the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA on JO is at $33.77.
The 61.8% retracement level between 30.54 and 40.25 is 34.25. Next week's pivot support-1 level is at 33.75.
So a price in the area of 33.77, 34.25, and 33.75 look like a potential entry to me. Now we'll see if it can show stopping action.
You still in your coffee trade? I have been watching JO and am considering a small long position soon. Over the last few months there looked to be some resistance around $34-35, which I'm thinking may become support if it can hold and close above say $34.50 today. I may be way off the mark! What are your current thoughts on JO if you have a spare minute?
I have to disagree based on price and the number of headphone options offered by SKUL (BEATS $100 plus vs. Skull which is more affordable), and just like BEATS, I can see someone scooping up SKUL. I also think that Skull is doing a better job of advertising its product.
competition already getting to them? BEATS by apple should give SKUL a very hard time, PE here over 300? I would not touch this at $7.