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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Why the big swings up and down?

    by kauiakid Nov 13, 2014 2:38 PM

    Could be just technical. After the buy climax (bearish engulfing candle) there were 2 days of down with lighter volume and then stopping action on Tuesday. Wednesday it shot back up to test the 1/2 way point of the bearish engulfing. It hadn't built any cause so you knew that that move couldn't be sustained and the volume was way light given the large price increase. So the next day it broke down.

    The market makers make money by making a market; they have to take the price to where they can get some action. So they test and retest prices where there was good volume. I think that is all that was happening. But that high volume off the top, the bearish engulfing on Nov 6th, would concern me if I was long SKUL.

  • Picked up some JO yesterday at 34.75. Good to see it moving up today; over $36 as of this writing. Good volume yesterday compared to the week of prior trading but not what I'd call a good sign of strength but the indicators all look good on JO and the front-month contract. Full Stoch 14,3,3 crossed above 20, MACD 12,26,9 histogram went positive, and RSI14 crossed 50. It's riding above an up-sloping 9-day EMA so I'll just let it ride.

  • Reply to

    OT: Garbage Stock & other picks

    by onepoint272 Sep 1, 2014 8:16 PM

    Thanks for explaining in a bit more detail OP. I was close to pulling the trigger when JO dropped into the low $34s this week but held off. I read a couple of articles which made me think carefully about holding long on coffee and thought maybe I'll take a leaf out of your book, and wait for a close above the 9 day EMA. Today it looks like the average is starting to turn up. Maybe today it will also close above and I look to enter.

    I was reading about an upcoming rebalancing of a commodities index which may negatively impact coffee prices in January. And that there may be some unwinding of large speculative long positions going on, given the step up in price already achieved this year - (http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sugar-a-better-bet-than-coffee-or-cocoa-says-abn--7659.html). Gave me pause for thought on holding long, made me wonder if JO might be consolidating before taking a dip below the established channel, rather than upwards as I'd hoped. Today's action looks more bullish though, confirming the case for continued demand in the background, so I may get in if it closes above that EMA.

    All the best.

  • Reply to

    Getting ready to give it a go again

    by goldenseth Sep 13, 2014 4:17 PM

    Been a quick and predicted ride for this short term trade. Moving on now!

  • Finally, this thing is recovering- well done mngmt-

  • Reply to

    OT: Garbage Stock & other picks

    by onepoint272 Sep 1, 2014 8:16 PM

    Look again. JO's price is still below the 9-day EMA and the 9-day EMA is still sloping down, as of Friday Oct 31st. The 9-day EMA is just a check for me. It is a fast MA; not much lag. For a long, it should be turning up and I like price to close above it and continue to close above it, otherwise I have to carefully consider getting out based on other evidence.

    On the monthly chart, JO was marking down from May 2011 to Nov 2013. Then it marked up Dec 2013 to April 2013. Now it is range bound but the 12-month SMA is sloping sharply up and is currently at $33.03. For November the 12mo SMA should be about $34 and change. So the monthly chart is bullish...it has demand in the background, specifically the month of strength of February 2014.

    On the weekly you can see a trading range (TR) between a high of 41.98 and low of 33.44. It dipped below the range (a spring) fro 3 or 4 weeks but then got back up into the range. There have been two upthrusts above the range, one in April and another 4 weeks ago. The spring was met with lack of supply and both upthrusts were met with lack of demand. So now, after testing demand it is heading down and testing supply and supply is drying up, the weekly volumes are decreasing. Overall the weekly chart is still bullish. It is in a TR but it has demand in the background, weeks of strength back in February. Yes it could break down out of the TR but with demand in the background, supply needs to prove itself. There has to be a sign of weakness(SOW) to turn this chart bearish. It is bullish until proven otherwise. It does not need heavy volume to move higher, demand has already proven itself.

    On the daily, as you pointed out Jim, the volume and price volatility is decreasing. Price is sitting just above the 200-day SMA, 35.49-close vs 35.21. The lower channel line is just below in the high 34's. Next week's pivot is just above at 35.62. Next month's pivot is 37.72. There is a 70% chance it will get hit in November.

SKUL
10.02-0.22(-2.15%)Jan 30 4:00 PMEST

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