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Last week Moody's cut Russia's debt rating to Baa2, the second lowest investment grade vailable citing the impact of sanctions. Meanwhile, compare the Russian stock markets to Brasil's. Russia has been a haven sanctuary for investors compared to Brasil thrashing in comparable time since Russia's downgrade to today. Realize the madness of this and how absolutely putrified is the sentiment in Brasil right now. And all because Dilma may win? Take a contrary view, I feel it is a good time to buy Brasil for long term investors. A Dilma win is not justification for such putrefaction. See the bigger picture.
Selling appears way overdone.
Thank you my friend. Brasil can not trade in a vaccuum. Almost all other emerging markets are widely outperforming Brasil inconsequential of its fundamentals in comparision. Developing counties like Brasil cannot distance itself from its other emerging peers to this blistering extent since those peers are influenced by the same external forces as Brasil in an increasingly connected world. This selloff is all emotional. Emotions only drive equities in the short term and then fundamentals must come into consideration. This selloff is not fundamentally driven.
I just revisited emerging market charts, about 15 of them and not just the BRICs and what I see is a divergence between their valuations and Brasil that is quite extraordinary. Given the rising tide in emerging markets and the jilted Brasil that failed to be lifted with a converse 21% crash since September with the company fundamentals of indexes remains in tact, I agree with you that emotion has very much everything to do with this current meltdown. Little to do with fundamentals. This is why I do not believe this evaporation of Brasil markets can last much longer.
Look at the volume from midteen millions in average volumes per day to now approaching 27 million. That's huge volume and 10 millions more on average for the 3 months, notably since the crash. Most of this volume is institutions accumulating positions, so we know the water is inviting even though the headlines continue to churn.
Worst news long since in and greed is also an emotion. This to say, I believe the good turn is near. Will be watching.
I'm not in a position to sell, must also continue holding. Basically, strategy is scaled buying at 41 and below, hold 41 to 49, scaled selling 49 and above..
I understand everyone is frustrated, but using certain emotional words about the market implies there is some "correct" state for the market. This in turn can put somebody in a poor emotional state for dealing w the market ie angry, emotional buying instead of calm, scaled buying. Trust me, I've done it myself so I know.
The market is what it is, it's created by human beings who are themselves emotional, you have to always be open to the possibility that it could get substantially worse before it gets better.
What about the money which flowed into the hands of Dilda regime politicians through the Petrobas scandal?
The Petrobas scandal will probably affect the election runoff on the 26th. Almost 7% of EWZ is invested in Petrobas ( a company in which many have lost confidence). EWZ will go down based on the scandal but the election outcome will probably be more business friendly. I am tempted to increase my position under 40 if it gets there. Any coments?
How in the world would anyone choose Dilda over any intelligent male economic reformist? Simple, they want there free government handouts to remain in tact!
People of Brazil - WAKE UP!!!!!!! Your economy is on the verge of collapse!!!! If you don't force change and accept some pain now, the 40 million of yas that ascended into the middle class are going to descend back into the depths of hell!!
Vote for change, get jobs, work hard, be an example unlike the USA!!!!
Good Fillabrazilla333. Maybe then this will be the final blowoff. At $54.56 year high market has priced Neves for win. At $41's in premarket, you better believe a Dilma win is priced in and should have long ago. But given the nature of the markets, with the ability to be bigger drama queens than hollywood can ever know, we will see what is left.
And for clearness, Datafohla report was out during trading yesterday which reflected weakness, so this report reaction today is a double digestion really of the same report. Digest away. I wouldn't personally be surprised if the early weakness is addressed with later day buying.
Not overcondient, at all. Maybe though I know Brazil better than the outside looking in. And maybe I am just one clued in enough to realize Brazil has been subjected to a fire sale which has bordered on the ridiculous nature at this stage since most anybody could have told you Rousseff was and remained the odds on favorite since this race began. The market is surprised by seeing its reflection in the transparent window of most likely outcomes? As I said, how ridiculous but we deal with it and I will certainly hold and not sell here. Sorry for the longs in their suffering. Just know Brasil will shine again.
I already traded BRZU (EWZ) 2 weeks ago, as posted here October 6. I made 50% approx in less than 3 days.
I am now looking at BRZU again soon. Another huge 'quick' trade to made here on new oversold metrics.
Datafolha today has 52x48 Dilma and market certainly doesn't seem to feel Dilma's "stumbles" hurt at all, that's all I need to know. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Aecio wins, but not betting the farm on it.
Beware the overconfident "I'm Brazilian, so I must know better than everybody else" attitude. The whole thing is not that complicated and FWIW, you're not the only Brazilian on this message board.
Couldn't care less about debates? Granted, the core of her base will vote for her because her assistance to the poor, a message now fear mongered to the base, but to say couldn't care less about debates is ignorant. There are a lot of fence sitters in the middle ground that may teeter one side to the other and a skilled debatesman can sway opinions. As for your slim percentage of undecided, that is categorically false. There are a large number of undecided. There is no truly decided and undecided middle ground because both groups are susceptible to be swayed.
As I stated times before, all polls not just the smaller ones like Vox, MDA and Sensus are to be taken with grain of salt. Did Datafolha or IBOPE predict the Neves surge from distant third to contender? No. Did not. Close to the vest. The election will tell but Brasil remains ridiculously oversold on the fear of the election being peddled regardless. Waiting for a return to sanity. Shorts may begin covering late week and even if not, don't care. Will hold my Brasil until investors appreciate its potential of my country as the same I do.
Dilma voters could care less about debates, and the truly undecided in this election are a slim percentage. The respected, statistically rigorous polls all show the difference within margin of error.
For a time most especially amidst the height of the emerging markets selloff, perceived hawkish comments added more skid to the moves. The focus has been noticeably lessened in recent months, atleast for most emerging markets that dimnished the impact. What irks me today is the recent dovish Fed stance to help calm investors and preserve the American bull has been pretty much all ignored in Brasil because the Real trying to retest $2.50 USD tells me so. This is higher than even the levels of the peak 2013 crisis. Tough to be a Brasil investor and that is why if I could today I would be spending the day to regain calm perspective at Sugarloaf Mountain. I will continue to hold despite my investment in my loved Brasil to date being a for sure disaster. Things can change and now odds favor the longs at these supprssed levels of heightened implied volatility near 100 and steeply entrenched pessimisms. I will go now for today and hold. Not been pleasant to watch this market.