I think it's significant that in all the years this stock's been around, they chose now to go on the road.
It's a good buy at half book ($3.69), there have been may buys by insiders in the past at this level and higher and it may be a good time to at least think about backing up the truck.
I found this transcript at seeking alpha:
Q2 2014 Earnings Conference Call
August 14, 2014 3:00 PM ET
Hi guys. I have a question for you maybe it’s a question that Craig can answer or you Dr. Bates. ...the stock trades half of book. Obviously there was some confidence in the company because I see some of the directors buying the stock. Frankly I’m a little surprised that the Turkish director didn’t buy any stock in the private placement...
But in any case... why do you think the company trades at half of what I think its tangible book, if I’m not mistaken? And what can the company do to perhaps close that gap? To help close the gap, obviously I’m saying?
We have no knowledge as to why ...there is that that gap or imbalance between the two. I think what we try to do is run the company and manage the company as well as we can. And I think what we’re doing now would be the proton initiatives and as that takes effect, I think the value – you’ll see the value in the future increase above what the book is, because I think there are a lot of people that have been waiting for a number of years for the proton initiative to start.
In that I think each month we get closer to that happening. Now we’re within 18 months of first treatment at our first centers. So we’re very excited about that. And we’re hopeful that people will see the value in that. And it should increase our EBITDA significantly once we’re up and running. So, I think the metrics will drive the stock up, that’s our hope.
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before the big run. He has alerted me to a bunch of stocks before they took off.
May sign 1-2 protons and 1-2 Gamma within next 8 mos. Going on the road to investors. Just needs a little more EPS. Orlando will help with that in 6 mos. or so. All multiples and comparables other than EPS are great, or will be great once the EPS is there. Been picking up shares.
BTW, there's a new book out on Amazon about how proton will "revolutionize cancer treatment". GLTA
Addressable market is 17 AMS sites plus 67 other designated cancer centers. If 50% opt Mevion and 30% of those opt AMS that's around 12 sites generating maybe $4m in operational profits each. The sales cycle is slow and it's a year or two to prepare sites and ramp the revs.
But revenues will be predictable since the customers lock in ten year contracts for the right to use the Mevion and the landlord model is scalable. Unlike a manufacturer or distributor, incremental revenue do not require a lot of additional, costly activities, marketing shipping, receiving, storage,returns, inventory write -offs and so forth. The same 10 people -- maybe a few more could handle it.
So revenues should be good quality, go to free cash flow and a good multiple should apply for eps or whatever metric you want to apply. But we won't know anything firm until a year from now. So it's a gut feeling investment for now.
When the $7M EBITDA was mentioned the reimbursement rates were a little higher. We will have to see what type the math says in the coming quarters, but by all accounts the returns are expected to trounce gamma knife...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
...in other words, it'll be $300 to find out what you have to say...lol!!
I'm adding on pullbacks. Once Orlando ramps and we see how the incremental revs go to earnings, that will have to be priced in, along with any deals they may announce for the two remaining protons.
That and going on the road to investment community, could make a big difference on PPS.
I think they have 19 sites, including Orlando. Mathematically, the first 17.5 sites are for BE and the rest are free to go to bottom line a lot more directly.The quality of revs should be good and decent multiples should follow.
The game has been going on for hours. Some fans are a little weary. Some went home. It's still tied, zero, zero. It's the bottom of the 9th. A runner has walked, took second on a balk and stolen third.
The coach looks at Mevion Orlando and says, I'm going to call a suicide steal. Can you lay down a bunt? Mevion says , "Yes, coach I think I can".
The runner sprints toward home. Mevion pivots to face the pitcher--- in an open stance. He's flawlessly laid down bunts 99% of the time-- in games and practice. But his heart is beating. The pitcher throws a curve. Mevion LOVES curves. The coaches heart is beating. Everyone's heart is beating like crazy. GLTA
I provided fairly detailed estimates of the revenues and value of the 3 proton machines in my Seeking Alpha articles. While management declined to say what their costs are those numbers are easily deduced from public SEC filings of both Mevion and AMS (and are documented in my articles). Good luck.
April 6, 2016 – Mevion Medical Systems is celebrating the first patient treated on its newest MEVION S250 proton therapy system. Today, 36-year-old Rhea Birusingh, a new mother with a brain tumor near her right eye, successfully received proton therapy at the Marjorie and Leonard Williams Center for Proton Therapy at UF Health Cancer Center - Orlando Health. Birusingh’s son Zane was born on February 18, and the opening of the first proton therapy center in Central Florida means she didn’t have to travel far from home to receive her care.
Rbea Birusingh"I am incredibly grateful and excited that I can receive this treatment, by an expert team of professionals, right here in Central Florida where I live," said Birusingh. "As a mother of a newborn baby, this allows me the opportunity to be treated without leaving my family and to treat this tumor effectively so that I get to savor these precious moments with my son."
I believe that, for competitive reasons, they don't want to give out the EBITDA number.
Sorry it was mmparsely , not treeandsky who posted this:
"Now, I'd like to figure out what the Rate of Return will be on the new machines compared to the Gamma Knife. E. Bates SR made a statement on the conference call at around the 17:30 minute mark; he said Revenues will be about 7 million annually in EBITDA from the one-room PBRT's which is about a 36% return per year, per machine."
Now that was posted on this board on 8-19-2010 so take it with a grain of salt for what it's worth.
by zoomlik • Jan 28, 2015 10:48 PM Flag
treeandsky's comment about a year ago
The company [AMS] has stated on their conf calls multiple times they expect 6.5 million in ebitda for each proton treatment room. They have three mevion machines that they contracted to purchase prior to fda approval and received a significant discount to current. I believe that discount in the aggregate may equal or be larger than their market cap. The ebitda on those three machines will approach 20 million.
Exactly what I'd like to know. I looked at some past posts here. Someone reposted a message here from treeandsky and he quoted something he heard in a CC a few years back that it was upwards of $7M. I noticed treandsky at seekingalpha too, so I was going to ask treeandsky for some more analysis.
They seem to be able to pay off a Mevion in 4 years and over the next ten ,AVERAGE $4M a year clear over the entire life of the equipment. (But in SEC filing they quoted that they got a lot less for for first three.)
In any case there appears no earthly reason that this will not trade at BV or more shortly.
Ams has 3 proton machines under contract from Mevion. Does anyone have a sense on the potential ebitda from these units per year? Am trying to project out future cash flow and get a better sense on what the company could be worth. I think the first beam to Orlando will be very successful and am hopeful they get the next two partnered this year. Beyond that if they could purchase and then partner out a couple more beams in the next 24 months what are the shares potentially worth?
Hey, mattr, If this goes as I think it will, there will be a two week period in the not too distant future when the eight year wait will be completely rewarded. Been there before!!
If If I were ever to go see it, I'll try to take my larger brained brother, who is a nuclear health physicist. I'm in So Fl. He's at a MA hospital.
The impairment of Mevion was for accounting purposes. The investment may be diluted but still has upside from here.
BTW, Google article:
New mom first patient to undergo proton therapy at Orlando Health
Hold onto your shares guys and gals. Orlando is a 6 year milestone and represents an inflection point for ASHS , if I'm reading this right.
Short term, AMS needs to follow with no fluke-positive -EPS to hopefully, rapidly get to BV.
If I'm to believe comments on past CCs, Orlando adds scale to AHSH and pushes EPS past $3+ BV. Nice upside.
Mevion is still a new Tech but pretty well proven, so lets hope it goes exactly as planned over next 2Q's.
I bought twice at market today 2000 shares. Done for now.
Hi guys, I don't post much but I started buying this stock when it dropped to the $1 range around 8 years ago and have continued to accumulate a significant amount of shares as well. Just wanted to say that I definitely agree with everything both of you have said and I am also very excited about what the next few years holds for AMS. Add me to the list of people who are happy to pick up more shares at these prices!
I was in AMS because of the dividend #$%$ a share. Then the stock market crash and promises stacked up. I have spoken to Dr. Bates on many occasions, from him I received no promises, but a feeling of light at the end of the tunnel. I have accumulated over the past year of now over 17k shares. Although still down in the long run, I am so excited and plan to visit the Orlando site again, in the near future. And don't forget, AMS has a 1% ownership in Mevion. Investyourbuck
Ten years. What a ride. Here's what I see as a fresh observer now.
IMO, AMS has arrived at a point where a significant change in the progress of the company will unfold.
A lot of patience will still be required before this translates into a big ramp in top and bottom lines and the company really coming to scale. Two or three years. There may soon be some hiring of new people.
To me it seems management and Dr. Bates has always been attentive to shareholder value. Especially through difficult times. But the next several years will be a lot more fruitful in that regard. The whole zeitgeist has changed.
Despite volatility in reimbursements, the company cut costs and has achieved sustainability with Gamma Knife. They can now start to meet pent up demand for proton.
It appears they can do that in a way that creates high quality revenues that go largely to cash flow and EPS. There are 10 year contracts, so no customer churn in this business.
The low hanging fruit in the proton market consists of these current, long established customers who have said they want to upgrade to proton.
The biggest competitive barrier to entry is AMS's solid relationships with these customers. It's the secrete sauce that can't be duplicated.
Without a lot of pomp and bravado, Dr. Bates is building a company that will last.
To get here has been glacially slow so-- for some weary investors-- there is a pent up desire to sell shares.
Now is the perfect time let them sell, for people like you, who have been here for ten years, to hang in there a bit longer and for management to be proud and brag a bit to new, potential investors as they take the investment thesis on the road.
Friend! Looks like you now our cheerleader. I will take a break and pick some tid bits along the way. I have been a holder of AMS for over 10 years now, so now is my chance to relish my retirement. Investyourbuck!
Google: New proton therapy in central Florida helping in the fight against cancer
There's an online vid.
AMS is a pretty exciting stock right now. New protons will be coming to the cancer fight. I'm feeling lucky to have gotten in at this time. GLTA!!