Bad Jobs report...........Naturally, I was an idiot and didn't sell after it was released since I think RDN is already cheap.
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Seems to defy all common sense. RDN generating earnings. BV continues to rise. Housing on a secular uptrend (household formation will soar simply due to demographics). Now at 0.8x BV-- the cheapest it has ever been (aside from the time when investors thought that RDN was Ch. 11). Only thing that I can come up with is increasing competition plus perhaps some regulatory issues that I have no idea about (pure speculation because I have no other answers-- I don't want to start any rumors here!).
No Idea, but the negative sentiment continues in GNW, MTG and RDN, I have been stopped out of this one.
No Way. companies typically appreciate before a buy out to make the acquisition more palatable to the BOD and Shareholders. My guess is fundamental concern in the industry we are not aware of.
There was some talk a few weeks ago about a possible buy out of RDN. Maybe at the current price RDN is becoming more attractive for a buyout.
I'm wondering the same. I have no clue why RDN and MTG keep going down even when the market is up. This is crazy. Is there news out there that I'm missing? The builders are doing well. The only thing I'm aware of is that instead of exiting the PMI business, Fed just lowered the cost taking away business from RDN and others but that was a while ago. These companies are still profitable....
Makes NO SENSE. The ONLY time in RDN's entire 24-year trading history that it traded lower vs BV was when housing was imploding and investors thought that RDN was going BK or Ch. 11.
RDN should be trading at 1.5X BV right NOW. That would put RDN closer to $19. That is a reasonable fair value. Someone please clarify for me why it should be trading at $10.40. Earnings and book value are RISING. Housing is in a long, secular UPTREND. I just don't get it.
Agreed. What a joke. Either they should announce a large buyback, or insiders should be loading up on the stock. Earnings are moving higher, BV moving higher, etc., etc. Stock at huge discount to BV. Stock is a giveaway at this point.
Could it be because the economy is not doing good, and people are not buying as many homes as they say, plus Ogarbage care is hurting many working people.
There's no reason why Radian should not move to $13 in the next couple of months.
Oh-- and BV guesstimate is $13.50 by year-end 2016 and conservatively $15.25 by year-end 2017. 1.6x year-end 2017 BV estimate is $24.50. THAT IS MORE THAN A DOUBLE from current prices. At some point in 2017. So around 12 months.
Oh-- and I forgot to mention-- housing is on the UPSWING. Household formation is going to soar over the next few years, simple demographics.
RDN trading BELOW BV. In its ENTIRE 24-year history as a public company-- it went below BV in 1995 (low of 0.91x BV), in 2000 (low of 0.95x BV) in 2003 (low of 0.87x BV) in 2005 (low of 0.97x BV). It also went below BV in 2010 (low of 0.93x BV) and also in 2011 and 2012 when investors thought RDN was done.
RDN has not traded below BV since 2012. And it makes no sense as BV is rising. The good news is that RDN traded well above BV in those years as well. in 1995 (high of 1.76x BV), 2000 (high of 2.14x BV), 2003 (high of 1.55x BV) and in 2005 (high of 1.36x BV). In 2011-2012, when investors thought RDN was dead, it traded above BV in those years!! 1.1x BV in 2011 and 1.18x BV in 2012.
RDN should be trading at least 1.5x BV today. Growing earnings, less than 7x 2016 earnings. Solid returns, good profitability.
The only thing that I can guess is that investors think that raising rates will be bad for housing. And that the pricing environment will stay competitive. Wrong, and wrong.