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Gray Television, Inc. Message Board

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  • I sent this to two friends last night and it looks like we may break out if we can get above $11.32......
    "The technicals also show that if we can strongly break out above $11.32 on solid volume and hold, that the next resistance isn't till $13.08+/- about 32 cents each way and it's only single strength single type, the weakest possible..........so really we could run to $13.93 before we hit triple type and triple strength.
    Anything is possible tomorrow. In the last two days the biggest down day in history and now the biggest up day in about 4 years. Tomorrow? I think GTN is getting ready to run. Any spark will ignite it." DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Need A Short Squeeze

    by daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 5:59 PM

    Technically she didn't downgrade the sector. She just slammed it. The next day the Bernstein analyst said the current tv broadcast model was dead.....which crashed the sector. She also made a negative statement on sector this morning about the DISH/SBGI agreement. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Need A Short Squeeze

    by daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 5:59 PM

    was the stock downgraded by wf..is so what was the downgrade. thanks..

  • Reply to

    Need A Short Squeeze

    by daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 5:59 PM

    Current price of GTN is a gift and because analysts didn't understand that the expense increases were due to first time ever payment of retrans to CBS. It has always been free. Controllable expenses were down $5 million. GTN is best managed company in sector and getting hit the hardest. It will rebound the most IMVHO. Marci at WF actually said Q2 results at GTN were reflective of higher reverse comp and she attended the call. She is the worst analyst in sector. Watch and learn. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Need A Short Squeeze

    by daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 5:59 PM

    Opal, go ahead and make that .01 cent. We are in a deflationary environment due to recent downward pricing pressure on commodities.

  • Reply to

    Need A Short Squeeze

    by daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 5:59 PM

    Please...people in hell want ice water too...
    Stocks are going to need to base in here for a while, I fear. Bottoms are almost always revisited, so personally, I'd wait until the dust settles before buying anything.

    Just my $.03 worth...adjusted for inflation.

  • Out today:
    "Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) ensharesed a rise of 63.8% or 861,423 shares in the short positions. The number escalated from 1,350,098 on July 31,2015 to 2,211,521 on August 14,2015. The final interest is 3.5% of the floated stock. The days to cover figure of 1 can be arrived using the average daily exchange of 1,925,221 shares. The short interest information was released by Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc (FINRA) on August 25th." DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GTN Must Evolve

    by daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 4:59 PM

    I unfortunately bought in in the $14 range, I didn't see this coming. GTN has been the worst in the sector over the last week, even after raised guidance, earnings smash (although expenses are higher), even Fox and DIS which were downgraded are doing better. I'm going to hold, because I believe this will comeback, but I'm a bit worried about the market in general, seems to be a lot of panic over China & other global problems. I am a bit baffled over why GTN is going down so much, they need to rethink selling their spectrum or at least some of it.

  • Reply to

    GTN Must Evolve

    by daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 4:59 PM

    I would add that GTN currently has over $222 million in cash as of 6-30-15. There is no way they can let this keep crashing without a buyback IMVHO. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • IMVHO, GTN will get bought out after the auction by cash rich competitors. EVC could be debt free as well as SBGI, MEG and others. GTN could be a sitting target. Kind of funny in a way. Hard to believe they can't see it coming. You don't turn down free money. Something also really hit me. The CEO said in the conference call that they hired a company to talk to thousands of viewers in all their markets. He said many were watching YouTube, Google and Amazon ( I believe that was the three without looking) but he said a fourth that he didn't understand was The Weather Channel. This really is indicative of what will happen in this sector in 3-5 years. The networks need to team up with the local affiliates now but those under 40 are getting their weather info from the Weather Channel 24/7/365. They don't have to wait for the 5 or 10 o'clock news and weather. I believe hat the affiliates will get cut loose next 3-5 years and ABC, NBC, CBS, CW, Univision, etc. will go straight to the consumer and take 100% of retrans or fees. The CEO of GTN is oblivious to what is coming. All he talked about was how GTN had #1 and #2 stations because of news and weather. It won't matter in a few more years. I agree the model is changing. I said last year when all the affiliates renewed their network agreements it took a lot of pressure off. For the record, these are my long term thoughts but others are thinking it's going to happen tomorrow which is what is crashing the sector. I bought 20,000 GTN a few days ago at $12.30+/- and tried to buy another 20,000 today at $10.50 that didn't fill. I don't have the number handy but GTN is going to have about $3.50+/- in FCF in 2016. I believe they will announce a stock buyback soon. They just sold 15 million new shares for $13 less than 5 months ago. That alone should be a support. If I bought then I would be averaging down now. I also bought 20,000 EVC today at $7.375+/- at the close. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM

    Thanks for your views and yes that was my main point. Even if reverse comp goes up, the retrans to the affiliates is going up net net. It was Marci that said Q2 indicated the affiliates were beginning to lose the net revenue battle not in so many words but was the perceived statement. GLTA today. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM

    I should add, and Dan I'm sure you know this, GTN Management gave us net retrains guidance for the next 3 years. They have all their reverse retrains deals locked up over the long term, they even gave us their assumptions on the retrains side for the subs they have coming up (using today's rates), which as we all are know is a conservative assumption. Net retrans dollars are going higher over the next 3 years, it's locked in.

  • Reply to

    Just A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM

    That is not what the Bernstein Media Analyst said. He essentially said the Cable Networks model is problematic and that multiples paid for affiliate fees should be lower (not retrains). He doesn't cover the affiliates, and the only broadcasters he does cover are the network owned CBS, and FOX, (DIS has a few stations). He considers them the safest names in the sector because of their sports rights and news, which are not disrupted by time shifted viewing. Oddly enough he likes Nielsen, which I think is on the firing lines more than anyone.

  • Reply to

    This should go back up

    by bostonsonlcs Aug 23, 2015 10:47 PM

    Nice try pretending you are me with your bostonsonIcs account. I am loading up and you do what you want.

  • But probably won't because the market is in a legitimate correction. Asian markets are down huge right now, and I fear GTN will crash along with the market. The Bears have definitely taken over. I think it's time to get out.

  • I bought 20,000 GTN on Thursday at the close at $12.29-$2.30......thinking it was close to bottom. Should have waited but not concerned. It's a steal at these prices. Will buy more if it drops Monday. I finally got caught up today and listened to the conference call. Value investor posted but somehow it does not show up. He said Marci did not downgrade the affiliates. That is true and value is one of the most knowledgeable posters on this sector. But, she commented that Q2 results were finally showing up that reverse comp was increasing and started to hit expense lines. As many of you know that have followed my posts over the past 20+ years, I think Marci Ryvicker is an idiot. This is further proof. She participated in the conference call and it went over her head. The CEO stated that reverse comp was mainly up because it was the first quarter that they ever had to pay reverse comp to CBS. Duhhhhhhhh. Their actual controllable expenses were down almost $5 million. Then all we see is headlines where GTN expenses are going up. Nobody bothered to mention that retrans is also growing at GTN or that they added 5 new stations. I would also add that if Marci really thought reverse comp was going thru the roof......she should be recommending DIS (ABC). She crashed this sector before when she put out a downgrade and didn't understand what was happening. CEO actually said all revenues were going up with exception of political. They actually did the same revenue this year for Q2 and didn't even have much if any political. The real reason for sector crash Friday was the Bernstein analyst said the current broadcast tv model is broken and should be considered impaired. Another idiot. But, this guy is also the #1 analyst for communications sector and highly respected. I do think GTN is making a mistake not planning to participate in the auction. It's free money. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    not big volume

    by blummie1000 Aug 20, 2015 12:06 PM

    Nope. But there are 5 other things that DO hurt GTN that they didnt tell you about. Wise up man!

  • Reply to

    An Open Post To This Board...

    by opalockamishabob Aug 20, 2015 12:51 PM

    Nice post. 99% of the Longs on these boards are no nothing Cramer following Lemmings who literally cannot stand to hear a competing opinion/thesis. They are so closed minded it is amazing and they deserve to lose every cent they have made in the recent bubble. They all convinced themselves that they hit a triple when in actuality they were "born" on 3rd base by virtue of this helium market. I saw a guy a couple of days ago on one of these boards telling people they knew nothing because he had been investing for "5 whole years". So there !!! Never seen a Bear market but he knows everything. Its almost amusing to see people like Bostonics just bewildered cause stocks are going down. He cant even differentiate between a GTN and a DIS. Absolutely clueless.

  • Down 11%?? Even FOX and DIS who got downgraded aren't down this much. This is gonna not to be $8 for no reason. What's with the crash? Earnings beat don't matter anymore

  • Reply to

    An Open Post To This Board...

    by opalockamishabob Aug 20, 2015 12:51 PM

    Nobody downgraded the affiliates, Wells reiterated their outperform on them. This is a throw the baby out with the bath water moment. It happens, that's what the stock market does from time to time. If you are a long term investor you just take advantage of opportunities like this.

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