Aereo just lost an injuction in Utah, just read it, court slammed them pretty good, I was thinking they had a good shot in the Supreme Court, but the Utah court did their homework (including reviewing the New York case) and slammed them pretty good, I don't think Aereo wins now.
Your reading comprehension skills are severely lacking. I have been the biggest bull for this sector since SBGI was $1 and GTN was under a dollar. Read my other posts. This sector is crashing because of Wheeler now starting to challenge multiple station ownership at the FCC, Fear that the Aereo issue might actual amount to something.....and the latest that companies reporting thus far are missing on earnings, revenue or both. GTN will see $10 before it sees $14 much less $18-20 IMVHO. GTN is fairly priced at $12-14..........momentum is what drove this sector to record highs. I said months ago many times that we just needed a catalyst to spark a sector rotation. We now have 3 or 4 to close from as the culprit. I bought 30,000 EVC today at $5.81.........doesn't sound like I am afraid of Aereo. DaninFW
thanks. all seems like a lot of extra hardware to receive what you can get for free with the approval of the content property owner with a regular old antenna if you don't have cable. will be interesting to see how the legal system defines proprietary property. nothing these days surprises me. good old common sense seems to be gone. take what is others, call it your own, charge people for it. go figure. wonder if this would also apply to radio as this case is reviewed. and the NFL for example. what do they have to say about the matter. back to blackouts?
Again, a legal interpretation. The cable companies receive and retransmit the broadcast signal many times at higher quality. The Aereo model receives on individual antennas. For instance, the cable company receives one signal and resends to millions of subscribers. Aereo might receive 2,123,423 signals on 2,123,423 antennas and retransmits to 2,123,423 subscribers. Hope that helps. DaninFW
Interesting. How is that any different than cable? Nor a challenge. Just trying to understand the logic pattern. Thanks!
I want to stress again. I don't like what Aereo is doing and being able to get away with thus far. To my recollection the statement you refer to is fairly common and probably used 100% of the time. However, Aereo claims they are not rebroadcasting. That's the heard of the issue. I won't even pretend to be a legal expert but the majority of courts hav sided thus far with Aereo. They claim to be providing an antenna as I understand on behalf of the person receiving the signal and charging a fee to do so. DaninFW
Dan,.... you worked in this field. Do the local broadcasters have the same type of "any rebroadcast without the expressed written consent..." language used by the NFL on their proprietary local content? If not, would making that statement on their programming change your evaluation of the lawsuit?
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I'm still laughing about your description of the Supreme Court, so accurate. Half the articles that are being published are flat out wrong. We can definitely agree to disagree, and like I always say, time will tell. Yes the world is changing, but when you have the highest rated content you are going to get paid. The local news blows away the ratings of anything on Cable, including Fox News. Blows them away, yet they get a fraction of what they get. Even the Time Warner CEO said that all future dollars should go towards retrans, said it 2 years ago at the UBS conference.
Value, I have enjoyed the discourse with you and have learned a few things. I decided to research further today. The case before the Supreme Court IS for copyright. If the court rules, historically they won't take up a similar case again. This is it one way or the other IMVHO. Here is an interesting excerpt from a news article yesterday:
"The country’s highest court agreed to hear the appeal in January, and now they’ve set a date. In an argument schedule released on Tuesday, the court said it will hear the case on April 22nd.
The schedule is also notable because Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from the case, according to ScotusBlog.
Such recusals typically arise because a judge has a financial or other type of conflict of interest. This means that the decision could end in a 4-4 tie – in which case, the lower court decision siding with Aereo will be upheld."
This is from the same article:
"Aereo’s future depends on a controversial interpretation of copyright law that received a green light from a New York appeals court, but that the broadcasters want the Supreme Court to declare illegal."
In the brief Aereo just filed they point out that this is really an attack on the Cablevision decision which the court has already ruled on. I have read several other articles today. I now give the Aereo case a 75% chance of winning and taking all. The broadcasters have to win 5 to 3 as a tie is the same as a win for Aereo.
You and I will have to agree to disagree but I see this as a real negative for this sector. The smart money apparently agrees with me.
The broadcasters need to be concerned. This would not be taken to the Supreme Court if it wasn't important. Barry Diller wants a decision because he has mega investors lined up to take this national if Aereo is ruled legal. Sure, nothing will happen overnight, but once it begins.........DaninFW
Value, I will say it again. You could be and probably are 100% right. I was only painting possible landscapes and other scenarios. I want the broadcasters to win. I don't think anyone should be allowed to steal content. But don't forget about that 13%. Less than that can decide elections........which is why new laws are passed. I will also predict this will be the first noticeable year that political ramps up for digital and mobile......which is why SBGI iis being so conservative. The world is changing and if the trend even shows a modest decline for broadcasters they will load their future models with further anticipated declines. DaninFW
As I said LIAR.....I never said that. Post the date and board where I said that. You can't because you are lying again. You really should quit taking stupid pills. DaninFW
That was an awesome response, love the description of the Supreme Court. So here is what happens, and I'll indulge you. Aereo wins, then a cable company has the stones to actually try this (I assume you know the punitive penalties for violating the copyright law), then the cable company wins in the courts because it will definitely go to court again if they try it, then what are the broadcasters left to do? As I said earlier, they simply broadcast 2 signals- over the air shows infomercials 24/7, if you want the good stuff you have to pay for it. It IS perfectly legal for the broadcasters to do this, nothing prohibits them. If this happens 13% of the country gets screwed, so it's bad public policy, plus the NFL isn't happy because they may lose their anti trust exemption. The key point is that is the networks would do this in conjunction with their affiliates. Why? Because it maximizes their value, they don't want to lose all the reverse comp they are receiving, CBS is talking about $2B in retrans by 2020 that includes reverse comp, they are NOT walking away from their biggest income source!
Anyway this plays out the networks and the broadcasters have the ultimate trump card. There is no way that CBS and their afiiliates will be forced to hand their content over for free. Congress does not want local news to go away, all the heavy handed regulators want more competition not less.
So that's how the worse case scenario plays itself out. A lot of things have to happen over a long period of time. The base case, CBS hits their $2B a year in retrans, affiliates ride the wave and continue to kick dollars back to them, and all of these stocks are multiples higher as a result of new records for retrans. I think GTN is at $0.60/sub with all of their subs coming up in 2 years. Retrans is going a LOT higher.
Dan, you know I am your biggest fan, but sometimes you are very irrational. You are kind of like an old mule. Or maybe a politician sticking to an obviously flawed argument because his largest PAC contributor wants it.
Dan, what you said is a cable bill is $150+ and an Aereo bill is only 10+ and that Aereo adoption would spread like wildfire and kill TWC and others.
Value, you are wearing me out. It will not be a cable company offering an Aereo type service if it comes to that. It will be a separate, non-cable company that will be owned 100% by a holding company owned by the cable company. 100% legal.....very similar to the side car's used by broadcasters now. I even agree with you that a cable company can't own an Aereo service under current law. My proposals circumvent the law, by pass the law, take advantage of loopholes, whatever, but it would be legal. I would add that the law can change. When the broadcasters don't participate in the spectrum auction which I predict they won't until they receive more incentives, there will be many in Congress and the Senate not happy. The cable companies, dish and telcos already want Congress to intervene in retrans. It won't take much to get a few laws changed. In case you forget I once was also a lobbyist. I helped defeat the Gore Bill in 1984 which was going to regulate the cable industry. This isn't my first rodeo amigo. I personally hope nothing changes and Aereo gets defeated. But, we have a current Supreme Court stacked with gays, atheists and womanizers. The GOP thought they had Obamacare defeated also........Never bet the farm on the Supreme Court or Congress. Many wish they hadn't.....DaninFW