At the Street says one or two buyers for Npsp, this is the start of the brokerages and MM's trying to get us to sell by using a little fear tactic. i am holding on for around 50.00 a share. Natpara approval looks to be happening or there wouldn't be a sale of the company. Shire probably made an offer of 41-42 a share 4.2 billion dollars total to put Npsp in play, so Npsp wasn't happy with the offer so they are now selling the company to highest bidder!.
13:13 EST - The auction for rare disease drug maker NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) is off to a fast start. First-round, non-binding bids for the company are due on Friday, according to a person briefed on the matter. On Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported that NPS is working with investment bank Goldman Sachs to run an auction for the Bedminster, N.J.-based company. Dublin-based Shire PLC has in the past expressed interest in NPS, and strategic bidders are likely to kick the company's tires. NPSP shares were up 2.2% to $39, adding to Monday's 6.6% gains following the WSJ report. (firstname.lastname@example.org; @DanaMattioli)
A negative article by "The Street" is not surprising. I was expecting a negagtive "Street" article and Feuerstein to pen the article himself, not one of his lackeys. Hold on, this is worth $50+ IMHO.
expect a downgrade from someone to allow the big boys to buy in before the deal is sealed. That did that with ITMN. Don't sell a share. Buy on any negative whisper. Longs have waited a long time, time for pay day
Here is my take for the next 30 days. First off, Shire is not going to buy out NPSP until they have enough confirmation about the approval of Natpara which is Jan 24th, if Npsp starts going up around a week before approval date then it probably gets approval from leaked information! Then i think we get the premium buy out offer shortly thereafter. Shire is not going to pay a premium for Npsp unless Natpara gets approved! Secondly, there has been no disappointing news regarding the approval process and management has stated previously that the FDA did not request a Complete Response Letter and that Natpara will be approved with tweaks to labeling restrictions and dosage. Nothing is a sure thing until the FDA decides it.. we sure don't need another down surprise on approval, stock will tank on bad news.
So if approval get done, we should see a nice pop in the stock price and then hopefully the premium buy out offer from Shire as an added bonus! Holding on - good luck to all!
This is a confidential process that is material to the company. Nothing is going to be released until a deal is done. Only information that could come out will be leaked in violation of confidentiality agreements.
When GS is hired to sell a company, chances are good that two or more buyers
are interested and GS gets the best price and close the deal fast. The most recent
example is ITMN, check it out at yahoo, all the news are still at yahoo. By the
way, see the ITMN analyst's opinion, the highest price target before the buyout
was 54, and sold for 74 in two weeks after the news GS was hired.
Natpara approval with minor or no limitations to label
followed by Shire buyout bid with approx 60% premium to share price = 58. - 60. pps
According to an unconfirmed report in the Wall Street Journal, NPSP is seeking a buyer for the company, with investment banking firm Goldman Sachs leading the effort. We believe a potential sale hinges on the outcome of the potential approval of Natpara to treat hypoparathyroidism. Natpara has a FDA action date of January 24, 2015, and we anticipate approval. Natpara, which already had orphan drug status in the U.S., received this designation in Europe last week. We are raising our 12-month target price $8 to $50 to account for a potential takeover
These guys really think NPSP is only worth $42?... If you do the math that's what they are implying. Hmmm. I don't buy it. $50 minimum is what I'm looking for. Expect a mini short squeeze tomorrow as a result of the less experienced Retail Shorts. Hits $43 tomorrow.
Happy New Year and THANKS for your insightful post !!! NPSP looks good for 20015!!
Barclays initiated coverage on NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: NPSP) with an Overweight rating and a price target of $50.00.
The Financial Times (which I think is the most reliable source since Shire is a British company) quotes Flemming Ornskov, Shire chief executive: “Based on what we saw in the regulatory filings and with the correspondence with the FDA [about Natpara], we feel confident that it is a risk worth taking. What was absolutely key for us was to get in as early as possible.” So that suggests there are no approval contingencies in this deal. But I also don't think another buyer will emerge; that was the whole point of the M&A auction process conducted by GS and Lerrink - to get the best bid. My take is that NPSP knew they could get $50+ post approval, but they are concerned about whether they will get a clean-slate approval and possibly be required to do another trial, which would send the price down $15. Shire may also have been willing to bid higher post approval - they were conservative to get a better price pre-approval. all in all I think the two parties did the best deal RIGHT NOW. So I'm happy.