The market often gives a second chance. I see a run up to 60 on the next earnings and 70 with the quarter following. Construction is booming. Cannot do construction without cement. Pricing is good and has been increasing.
China will not derail USA construction unless it kills the banking sector, in which case, no money, no build. I do not see that happening.
This is a second chance for those who did not see the potential when it first ran.
I knew all this, yet for some reason I hedged my bet that there wouldn't be any sell-off and held some warrants. Wish I would've sold all the X @ 30 and got back in...probably about now, maybe if they slide to 25 would be an even better entry as 35 at the end of the year is very possible - it only has to touch 60 for that.
Big gains in price after earning announced did not surprise me. They level off, and then the folks buying on the good news decide that they made whatever short term gains that are there to be had, so they sell out just as the buying frenzy from the good earnings report is subsiding. So there is an expected down phase, which is a second chance to get in for those who did not get in right away after the good earnings. We do not know how far this phase will go.
The next phase is that expectations start looking forward and seeing that the industry is in a very good spot with rising pricing and demand and their costs not changing very much. A recipe for increased profits. And USCR is seeing this. I expect at least two quarters of blowing out expected earnings. After that is difficult to predict because expectations may rise by enough that they come into the ballpark of where USCR is performing.
Buy as soon as he price slide ends and hold through at least the next earnings report or two for maximum gains.
HOV doesn't do renovations to my knowledge. I like HOV. They have three new developments around me that are selling like crazy in Texas. They are big in DFW and Houston. DaninFW
Oh, well that's long gone lol. I think I'm gonna find an entry to HOV and or EVC. I like the HOV prospects - I do seem to buy beaten-up stocks more than not anyway, but I'll have to look and think about the home-building prospects of the US a bit. For example, I think I've read that a sizable portion of the millenial generation leans to condos (and in St. Louis where I am, old, renovated buildings that are converted into lofts) instead of homes because they don't want the fuss of a home to interfere with their more free-flowing lifestyle, so how would that impact HOV? I see it said they build condos and complexes too, but how much, and are they into complex renovations, etc.
Well I just sold 2/3 of my warrants. Was a tough decision but felt I should take some off the table for the time being. May re-enter on any moderate pull-back. One question I have, and I think Dan mention it at some point: was there a definite answer to what happens to the warrants (or was there a bonus or something added to them) if a buy-out is offered and accepted?
Sorry on USCR PE, should have read 18.6 and not 8.6. Still, much lower than MLM.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Do not think so.
Trailing Earnings are 2.96 USCR versus 3.77 MLM (as per Yahoo estimâtes). SO trailing PE would be, on USCR 56 SP : 8.6 PE and MLM on 170 : 45 PE
Based on estimâtes for 2015 : USCR 3 same 8.6 PE versus MLM 5.04 or 34 PE.
And if you look at next year, estimâtes are for USCR earnings to decline to 2.96 versus 7.70 MLM or PE of 22 PE.
So USCR trade a susbtancial discount to MLM. This being said, not exactly the same business, and USCR deserve a discount because they are in the RM business which is a smaller part of MLM. However, USCR have blown their estimâtes for the last quarters... The estimate of 2.96 for 2016 is way off IMHO, and they should beat this quite easily.
The whole point is only to illustrate that USCR is still quite cheap and have some more room to climb, actually a lot of room.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Last quarter, Martin Marrieta did 1.22 ex delays in Texas. They should have done 1.54. USCR did 1.31 last quarter. Texas had an impact too.
MLM trades at $ 170 per share versus $ 56 for USCR. I know the companies are different and that USCR deserves a discount being in the RM which is only part of MLM business. However, right now, USCR trades at 33% of MLM on a per share value, despite booking earnings that are 85% (1.31/1.54) of MLM. Based on this metric, USCR still has a long runway to play catch up...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I bought 200,000 HOV in $2.30's and will add more when it finally bottoms. Can't believe the carnage. I made about a half million trading EVC last 12-18 months. Bought 50,000 shares last week and sold 30,000 today when it was up 16% for the day. EVC is worth $12+ just as a spectrum play. I just trade till then......GLTA. Daninfw
Are you invested in any of the preferred (hovnp) or derivatives (I think I saw futures for evc?) of any of these or just all common? Thanks, you have been the man on USCR!
I agree. USCR is still hot. I had over a million profit. I may look at USCR calls the next two quarters a week or two before reports. I still like HOV and looking to average down. I really like EVC as a spectrum play and want to load up before it takes off again. Also, thinking of CX as a cement play that is behind sector. Also, buying PBY on dips as I expect buyout announcement any time now.GLTA DaninFW
I was in Manhattan for the last two days and there is construction everywhere. Big projects. I noticed a parade of Ferrera cement trucks at the sites. Dan, you are telling me the Texas market is booming. I know the New York market is hot. I still like the stock here, and the warrants are even better still.
That said, lightening up if you have big gains is good portfolio management. I do not see better opportunities over the next few months right now, so I will likely hold for the next two quarters.
I wold be interested in hearing what you believe are the good opportunities right now. I am following HOV but it seems to be a falling knife right now, even while seeming a reasonable risk / reward situation. It's just that it will be even better tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day, etc.
I think that if you sold all your warrants today you are leaving a lot on the table. I expect USCR has beats for the next two quarters at a minimum, even if the estimates are raised. (The estimates will still be too pessimistic) . It looks like 60 is easy by the next quarter, and 70 could come the quarter after that, and buyout is also a possibility here by one of the mega players. Nevertheless, taking some off the table is never a bad idea when you have a gigantic profit.
Still think there is more to be had here. I will stick with the $4 EPS this year and $5 for 2016. Both Stifel and Sternee Agee raised there price targets to $60. For a 52 week target that seems rather modest. A couple more dollars and I will seek to raise cash in my non-taxable accounts.
Thank you for all of your comments in advance. Just wanted to mention that my last trade with AwesomeStocks provided me with about 100 dollars in gains. Nothing stellar but definitely better than some of the other free newsletters. Will keep you posted on my results with them.
I think $60-70 is a given. I did sell all warrants today as I think I can make better elsewhere. Good luck. I made over a million on this play. DaninFW
Seems so. Clearly broke $50, but Yahoo says 52 week high is 48.xx (even though the graph shows extended period above 50). And it's up $2 AH, but Yahoo shows that at 0% lol.
Anyway, any ideas where we go from here? I'm holding a good chunk (for me) of Warrants. I was hoping for a buyout offer like Dan thought possible at about $60, but at this point, maybe staying the course and hitting over 60 on it's own with a look toward 70 next year (can't believe I'm saying that - I've had this since it was, well, not trading the Warrants!).