fzso, It will creep for a bit and then there will be a serious spike when something comes out that reveals the recovery story.
hey mono bini.. this moved and is not dead money anymore or dead man is walking to 1.98 and then 2.06 and then to 2.11 or 2.16 or 2.25 and to 2.31 etc etc.
I have to say that there should be enough contracts out there to turn ANAD to a profit without the rumors. They will be extra cautious this time around in avoiding a situation that would leave them with more demand than they have capacity to fill. We lived that already and without a clear idea of their current production capabilities, it is hard to know how many units ANAD could handle and where their limitations now stand. I would doubt a move into any contract that challenges those capabilities. We should have plenty demand for a recovery already. Lots of good news out there.
Alas, we can only speculate at this point. I'd be looking for Apple to crack into NFC before too much longer, as well as improved biometrics.
Howard, love the accent. Anyway, You are right, this is dead money; until it isn't any longer. Then, if your bet against ANAD is a large one, I hope you have covered by then as small things like this can move too fast to stop. Good luck but, I do not see a dependable short bet here as upside risk is large. I can only lose as much as I have invested and at least that is a known figure.
I have always been astounded that Anadigics was never taken over by anyone who wanted to save money on the GaAs chips for their products. They have been so cheap for so long, it would only take some large company to decide they needed an unusually large number of one of there chips to make the company cheaper to take over than to purchase chips from . I do expect this time the turnaround story will gather more steam. They have struggled for a long time and it is a great underdog story and others should start doing their math soon. There is also something of a seasonal trend in there history that bodes well for a near term improvement. Best of logic to you. MB
"...In 2012 the total production shipments of CMOS-based RFPAs into basic handsets well-exceeded 3B units but this is forecasted to fall by almost two-thirds to just over 1B units in 2017. Contrastingly, shipments into smartphones will start with approximately 2M units being sold in 2012 but will increase dramatically to reach 432M in 2017.
Currently all GaAs and InGaP-based RFPAs go into smartphones and it is anticipated the situation will continue. Major players include: Anadigics, Avago Semiconductor, Skyworks and TriQuint...."
Who of all these players might anticipate the greatest growth?
It's all relative. One man's 200K shares is another man's 200 shares. What I will grant you is that I've paid a tremendous opportunity cost given the S&P 500's dramatic rise this year.
As for the company being a loser, check back this time next year.
Here is my concern: no cost stock grant is for startup, IPOs. Most well managed companies use stock option or employee stock purchase plan as compensation. Management gets market valued stock same as investor, but has the option to exercise until it's in black. Then they have the motivation to work for shareholder. Look at Skyworks, Avago for example. I don't know how the board approved Anadigics's current compensation system. It's way overdue for a new evaluation. Overall, I think the company is doing better and moving in the right direction. So I am still holding my shares and spend time here and there. If it's a turn around success, we make money. If not, it's likely get bought out. There is only a slight chance to be flushed to the toilet, but it does exist
The author presents a very good argument. And I loved the graphs! Everything certainly seems to be going in the right direction. The key to this company's success will be to continue increasing gross margins. Will be interesting to see if they can continue the trend! Wall Street does not seem to think so at the moment, but we could be back in the 2's in a heartbeat once they wake up! Go ANAD!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
To answer your questions, while no doubt a long-shot bet, I do think ANADs current CEO and team has a chance at pulling off a turnaround. I do understand that unless things start turning around at a faster pace soon, that they will unfortunately need to dip into the $$ well again.
In regards to the "greater fool" trade question, I would already be there if i sold all my shares next week to "greater fools" since I established a long position just over a year ago at an average cost of 1.25. But I also understand that I risk being the "greater fool" here if things do not go as planned and pps goes below 1.25 and am still holding the bag.
But I have been in this high-risk position before with Ramtron (another "turnaround" story) where I established a large position at 1 buck/shr, sold a quarter of position when it hit 4 to take my original capital off the table, and then rode it till the end when CY bought them out at 3.09 in a hostile takeover. (In hindsight, would have done better if I had a crystal ball and dumped it all at 4 a year earlier).
At any rate, I used 25% of ramtron profits to pay down some RE debt and then rolled the rest into another potential turnaround story we all know as ANAD at an avg cost of 1.25. So my risk with ANAD is very low since I got in at lower price point and with all the house's chips. In hindsight again, I would have done very well with ANAD if I'd had taken some profit before each earnings release, but I would have had short-term gains to pay. So far, 50% unrealized gain in a year is not too bad provided that it maintains this price level/shr. What happens from this point forward with ANAD is anybody's guess, but my guess is that Ron is competent enough to pull it off, and maybe honest enough to sell the company if things don't look likely for a successful turnaround. So far, they seem to executing well, albeit not at the pace I would like to see.
If the balance sheet is gettint better it is because they issue more stock to replenish the treasury. This is a cash burn company that caters to the insiders.
Don't get me wrong, I would love nothing more than to hear AAPL choosing the Murata product with ANAD inside. But reality is that BRCM, MRVL, and others who AAPL already deal with also offer 802.11ac FEIC's I believe. Question is, who's products performs best with least power consumption? I honestly don't know the answer to that question, but that could certainly play a role on which product AAPL would incorporate in next generation of mobile devices.
1) "Whether one is long or short, both sides are playing with high risk $$"
Couldn't agree more. Very high risk on either side. Microcap. Technological change. Significant competition. Buyout possibility. Leveraged margins. We could go on and on.
2) "My hope is that they get taken out soon, but CEO appears determined in giving it his best shot."
Anything is possible, but take-out remains a very long shot. CEO has little incentive to sell unless there is no other alternative. Especially since it looks like there is a chance he can pull off breakeven.
3) "As long as they keep shrinking their losses, they will probably be fine with no need to tap the well, again."
That surely is the company line (see conference call). But even if losses go to .08/sh, then .05/sh, then .02/sh,, then breakeven, there will be less than .25/sh cash (less than $20MM), and next to no ability to weather the next storm (and there have been many storms in this industry and no reason to think that the weather has changed permanently). Not only must it keep growing to breakeven, but it most keep growing to make money. Do you really think that ANAD has that in it? Or are you just in it for a "greater fool" trade?