My calculations are on 13 weeks which was the same as last years. I think they will end Q4 on Feb 1 which is I think three days less than last year which I believe they can make up through the record period they had for black Friday-cyber Monday and if they can continue the decline in returns trend in January they have been doing the last couple of years. That was part of my factors. If I missed something let me know. Electronics should pull a lot of weight to the Q4 revenue number too, even more so than 2012's Q4. But the biggest gains is in the growth in real customers, I think we will be surprised by their impact.
Also the fact reports are coming out that the wealthy (most of VVTV's customer base) have recouped all their loses in the market from the recession of 2008-early 9 is a very good sign the economy is coming back. I think we saw that in the record six year sales weekend announced recently. The job market is improving albeit slower than we want, but improving non the less is a further good sign. Christmas should be very good this year for both ends of the economical scale and the lower end should be better than what is expected because gas prices are still dropping putting more money in consumers pockets to use for the holiday.
The only thing that could derail retail in 2014 will be healthcare, as premiums will rise and the fees imposed on citizens because of the unaffordable Affordable Care Act. In 2015 further pressure will be made on citizens as they will be paying income tax on their healthcare benefits on the so called Cadilac plans, which will take more money out of consumers pockets. Hopefully changes will be made to change some of these issues or we could drop back into a recession by 2015. But for now I don't expect the market to correct until at the earliest 3rd or last week in January but more so in Feb or early March, but we do need a 10% correction to keep the market healthy.
mr trump, when you talk about the possibility of "Q4 exceeds by double digits revenue" are you talking about the comp with the reported number last year or the comp with the pro forma 12 week number that the company broke out last year? Remember that they have one fewer week this year. I believe they will easily do a double digit gain over the pro forma number, but it will be quite difficult (but not impossible) to do that against the reported number last year (since the extra week probably accounts for about 7% of sales).
I think if Q4 exceeds by double digits revenue and VVTV pulls off a profit of +.02-.03 or higher we will see CH go away and the special meeting canceled and the pps move to $8-9 quickly..., still below true value of $12.50. According to Yahoo Analysis have Q4 at an average of -.01 with the high of +.01 and a low at -.03 and just changed it from break even .00 seven days ago. Now the way this year has gone and if we look at last years actual number of -.01 then factor the bottom line carriage cost savings in we could see Q4 earnings come in at +.03-+.04 (with some consideration to the residual branding cost and legal fees from what CH is costing us shareholders for their efforts to stir the pot) and that would be a blow out number IMHO.
The only ones taking anything Zacks recommends is either Zacks or a novice trader.
I agree, mr trump. Did you happen to see the big electronics event (particularly on Saturday) this past weekend? It appears that they sold close to $2.5 million worth of tablets on one day alone...fairly explosive, I would think.
The funny part is they say "so if analyst perception is any guide, we could witness a slump in VVTV shares before too long." Ummm...the only "analyst" saying this is yourself, Zack's. The only real analyst to actually analyze since the last quarter gave it a buy with a target of $10. I suspect we'll close today in the $6.45 - $6.60 range. It's just a matter of time for the next big move up to $7+ IMHO.
They can not stop the computer generated program they use to get their ratings. The are the worse to use in any analysis IMHO because of the reliance of the computer and software. Good thing most investors know this, however traders are less to be aware. Between CG and Zacks VVTV just can not get a break and that is one of the reasons that KS and team need to deliver explosive results in the end.
Well some more derpage today. I know how it works but it's a headscratcher how we can see 1.1 million shares traded in the $6.40-$6.55 range as suddenly big money has an epiphany that this is gonna heat up into the next earnings and then the next day 1/4 the volume and erase half the big gap jump gains for no reason other than some small investors don't have the sense to look at the overall picture. The overall trend is solidly up, the only question is do we bounce back up to $6.50 and higher tomorrow or need to flop around in the low 6s for a bit before the next big move. Just one more real analyst upgrading the target and this will be a powder keg..come on Neely!
We are seeing a walk down right now as volume is considerably lower so far today..., this needs to change to see us recover by the end of the day.
this sell off end by the end of the day. VVTV was up over 8% yesterday so this mornings action was expected and considering the volume a good sign as it creates a buy on the dip. Now we could be down today by a few cents buy IMHO if volume stays strong we may see a move above 6.5 to 6.54 by the end of today. JMHO.
I posted a remark on the news article from Zacks on the yahoo piece. In short Zacks uses a model of computer formulas which do not take into consideration any changes to the fundamentals..., thus why IMHO it is unreliable. I find some analyst do the same thing in this day of computers and thus why most are behind the curve. CH who before this year was with Raymond James and then Piper J where Neely is now doing the real work that CH did on VVTV but she again IMHO isn't really doing the hard work as I believe she has yet to replace him and has too much on her plate..., but I could be wrong. So I do put more stock in CH than the others right now. I put no stock in Zacks and I have never done so as I think their model is flawed and that goes for all their stock coverage. When one sets a Target they need to look out over the next twelve months to project returns, revenue and earnings. However if Analysts are only looking at data or numbers recorded then they are prevented from looking out and are only looking at data of the past. I think this happens a lot in the markets of todays computer age. This method does not help investors at all and IMHO is just a waste of time.
I would ignore the Zachs note. I think it is a bot that makes revisions simply on fundamentals. The bot ain't very smart however as VV's fundamentals will vastly improve in Q4 and forward Q's. The reason is that sales will be growing faster than expenses...particularly carriage costs...which are FIXED. (That is the only positive I will attribute to the carriage costs incurred since we still pay exorbitant rates for that carriage)
If Taxin the Toxic Proxy Man and Carlo the Thug REALLY wanted to make a positive impact on VV (and Q and H) that would issue a PR that explains in big bold letters that cable/satellite customers would pay MORE if there were no TV Home Shopnets then ask....why not charge Amazon and the rest for 'internet carriage' to further reduce what cable/satellite subs pay?
They won't...because it requires a brain and original thought...which CG has absolutely ZERO of.
For what it's worth, an article/analysis I had read after the Craig-Hullman news predicted that if things stabilized above $5.75 after the gap jump (which it did), it would quickly move over $6. There was a resistance point around $6.15 which they say if broke through (we did today), this thing should then quickly follow to the $7.50 - $8.50 range as no major resistance. We'll see what happens as it had an excellent setup and it reformed very nice support around $6.40 today on solid volume for almost the entire day. If Neely actually dusts off the books and gives this a nice pps target upgrade similar to CH, this thing could scream.
...which brings us back to Marissa Mayer upside down on her chaise lounge dreaming of 69 courtesy of Alibaba rather anything Yahoo can do for us here...