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Nutrisystem, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    B Riley says $25

    by rbrentbyrne Nov 11, 2014 9:02 AM

    Yea Right! The guy must be on drugs. Maybe in year 2040 this stock gets to $25.

    Two huge up days for the DJIA, best days of the year, and this stock goes nowhere.

  • B. Riley, no Citi calling for $23. The dividend will kill 'em alone!

  • Borrowing money at low interest rates to buy back shares paying 4% is good math.

  • So up we go!

  • Reply to

    Pre-earnings run-up

    by wilwal_1299 Oct 28, 2014 2:52 PM

    It didn't run up as much as I had hoped, but the after-earnings has been pretty nice. We will have to wait another quarter to see if dividend policy is going to increase the dividend so selling a covered call will be good as soon as the buying pressure lets off in the next few days.

  • .....according the CEO yesterday. That's a fair ratio imo.

    They are clearly mulling over their dividend policy right now.

  • Reply to

    B. Riley lifts pt to $25!

    by rbrentbyrne Nov 4, 2014 9:48 AM

    The major indices are up 30-50% over the last two years. I think most analysts would call that momentum. True, NTRI shot up to around $20 and struggled since then. That's typical of a smaller cap stock that gets easily overbought and oversold. I like to look at longer range trends and the stock has tracked the success of the new management quite well and will likely exceed $30 in the next couple of years if management stays the course with new markets and new products. The one year target price of $25 is quite reasonable unless management stumbles off its growth trajectory.

    The float on this company is so small that a move to $25 could happen quite quickly should there be even a modest increase of sustained accumulation. By the same token, it could fall rapidly on bad news.

    The dividend is holding it back. The current dividend can justify an $18 price but it starts to look more paltry after $18. In order to move to $25, the dividend is going to have to increase into the $.90-1.00 range from the current $.70. That would knock out an additional $7million or so out of its cash flow. It looks to me like they are getting close to being able justify such a move.

    Another option is to start creating a track record of small dividend increases. Investors love that, as increasing dividends is one metric many income investors look for and is missing with the current dividend policy. They could start by adding $.04 or so to the annual dividend from time to time and start to build the expectation that investors are going to directly participate in the growth.

  • Reply to

    B. Riley lifts pt to $25!

    by rbrentbyrne Nov 4, 2014 9:48 AM

    Yes, well everything was 50% lower 2 years ago. If you look at the past year, the high was $20 a year ago, and the stock sold off after nearly every positive quarterly report. The price has been stuck in a $4 range between $14 and $18. That is not momentum commensurate with the growth in company earnings and market-share. A better example of momentum is the rise of Netflix from $60 - $400 in 2 years. Or Facebook with 100% gain in 1 year.
    I would not consider either company a safe/stable investment, but these are the companies that turn investors on. That is my point - until the investing public realizes the value in positive cash flow, no debt, high dividend, and market-share strength - you won't see more than an occasional nudge in price. Particularly when the price is controlled by a small number of large volume investors.

  • Reply to

    B. Riley lifts pt to $25!

    by rbrentbyrne Nov 4, 2014 9:48 AM

    Interesting comment that there is no upward momentum in spite of the fact this was a $7 stock less than 2 years ago, there have been 5 consecutive quarters of growth and growth is expected to continue. Add to that there is a large activist shareholder who really does care about upward momentum continuing.

  • Reply to

    B. Riley lifts pt to $25!

    by rbrentbyrne Nov 4, 2014 9:48 AM

    Good luck with that. He might as well have set the target at $100.
    The chance of reaching 25 is as likely as reaching 100.
    Nobody is interested in this stock, no matter how well the company performs.
    I'm not a short or trying to down-play the stock. I own 2000 shares in a loosing position.
    Held it for 7 years, but see no upward momentum regardless of the circumstances.

  • Wow, huge upgrade in price target.

  • Looking over NTRI's released accounting financial statements, i still see potential in NTRI. Even with all other rival companies i.e. Weight watchers etc. NTRI still has a big piece of the pie. More over in a letter to Ms. Dawn Zier there is a mention of the possible buy back at $23 per share. That would be awesome as well i that happens 23 buck sounds good. Either way the stock price i going to rise and the price that it sell for now, creates a perfect opportunity to buy in now and make nice profit down the road!! Most likely that would happen in the next 2 to3 quarters

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Check out two things since Ms Zier and her team took over this company:

    1. Both steady and impressive growth. Five consecutive quarters of growth now.

    2. Achieving guidance numbers every time. In almost all cases, they slightly exceed guidance or occasionally just slightly under. That is the sign of a smart management team that knows this company well and has it under control.

    There's not much to dislike about what's going on with this company. I can see why shareholder Clinton Group is frustrated with the current share price. This sort of steady growth and high quality management team should justify a share price in the low $20's right now, more later. Clinton Group thinks $23 value right now.

    After Hours trading indicated that investors liked the results. $17.50, or up almost 4% is a nice compliment to the management team for doing a good job. They have been delivering so consistently now for 5 quarters that it's time for larger funds to look at buying into this as a lower risk, good dividend stock with an upside in price.

    I can certainly see an investor group potentially interested in buying this company and taking it private.....there is a good and improving cash flow stream coming out of it.

  • Reply to

    NTRI short will cover before ex div date

    by rbrentbyrne Nov 3, 2014 4:24 PM

    Could you explain a bit more of your reasoning?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Solid quarter indeed, I was just going over the NTRI accounting statements and they look good, there is definitely solid growth. I predict even better report for the next quarter earnings. Very pleased. We just need more people to get in on this stock and drive the price up. Moreover, what i see as a positive, is the dividend % payout. Considering that the company's market cap is only 476.64M. There are companies out there with 100s if billions $ market caps and no dividends pay outs at all. Like Facebook for example. So to me this shows that NTRI is willing to take care of the share holders and also attract new ones. Its just too quiet and needs to get all this positive info out there so more people buy in. I haven't even heard any of the Q3 report news on CNBC, it might come up later, but it would be great if these results would be announced. Like i said we need more buyers. Other then that i am pretty happy with this quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Makes no financial sense at this point to fight the trend.

  • Ms. Zier is living up to all those awards she's been earning lately.

  • Reply to

    WOW

    by telefanatic_gene Nov 3, 2014 3:14 PM

    Yes, i would love to get the dividend increase. Even though .70/share is quite good and the price of shares is relatively cheap which enables people to buy more shares, well at least it works for me. I would still like to see good, strong numbers after closing bell. I think it would at least reinforce the current price per share. Maybe it will even get new eval with higher 1yr. target price. It just seems that there aren't that many people that check out NTRI and it just gets overlooked by a lot of people.

  • Reply to

    WOW

    by telefanatic_gene Nov 3, 2014 3:14 PM

    Seasonal sales changes are pretty much factored into the overall stock price. What will move stock price here is not quarter after quarter changes, but quarter to quarter changes between years......particularly in relation to expectations.

    The board is not just quiet, the company has been quiet too. Let's hope they have been focused like a laser beam on increasing sales and profits so the share price will take care of itself.

    This week, I would like to see the trend of increasing sales and profits to continue, then an announcement of a dividend increase.

NTRI
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