wow, I am not the only person in the world trading this event that reads the bulletin board. The company promised to release the data before January 1st so I expect they will do everything possible to make that date. It will certainly by released before the Jan 17 option expiration date. How are you playing it? Personally, I am neutral around the 40 strike. My guess is that the phase III results will be similarly good as was phase II and that much but not all the good news has been priced in. Also, this is not a break through product with the potential to cure all cancer or reverse the aging process. It will address an already served market of known size which would result in predictable returns. The option implied volatility is calling for a 10 dollar move up or down. Anything could happen, but I am betting even if does move 20 percent there will be a correction to bring the chart back closer to the mean which has been trending side ways.
option are priced for about a 10 dollar move either up or down. Certainly there will be volatility, but my guess is that good phase III results and a product roll out in 2015 are already priced in. If I where a large institution I would want to see some sales results before adding much more to the valuation. Could be some wild swings 5 bucks up, 8 bucks down, 5 bucks up. Just a wild guess.