Yeah, I'll go back and listen, but I think the $1B drug he referred to was Selumetinib, and it had two indications that could potentially be worth $1B in sales. Of course, Array would get double digit royalties from those sales, as it is partnered with AstraZeneca.
As for market share, we can never know ahead of time what market share will be. But, like I showed above, it wouldn't take much to be an enormous figure. I don't know how accurate $10K/patient is either, as this is a cancer drug. The per patient can get up to $100K depending on the drug.
I get the potential market size. The issue is always market penetration. If there are say 15-20 other drugs for an indication, how many get switched to the new drug? How much better is the new drug? There are some drugs like Gild Hep C where they are the only game in town, so blockbuster, but usually new drugs are me too drugs, so it comes down to getting 5%, 10% or whatever penetration the new drug can get. So total market can be 1.5B, but if penetration is 10% 150m in sales, it is a great drug, not block buster. Orphan drugs can get to blockbuster cause there are few treatments, others must compete for a piece of pie.
Now if B is the best or one of a couple, then 1b sales is likely, if it is one treatment of a dozen or so, then not so much. Ron did mention that one drug had 1b potential, I do think it was Bin
So, I looked up a little information. The first indication for binimetinib: NRAS (neuroblastoma RAS viral [v-ras] oncogene homolog): Approximately 15% to 20% of melanomas harbor an oncogenic NRAS mutation (NRAS-mutant melanoma). Melanoma is diagnosed in more than 1 million patients per year in the U.S.
So, you're looking at a potential 200K patients in the U.S. for just the first indication.
The second indication (BRAF-mutant melanoma): Approximately 40% to 60% of malignant melanomas harbor a single nucleotide transversion in BRAF.
So, you're looking at a potential 500K patients in the US from this indication.
The last indication, which is Array-sponsored, is for ovarian cancer: About 22,000 women are diagnosed with ovarian cancer each year in the U.S. And 1 out of 72 women will get it in her lifetime.
So, a much smaller patient population for this indication. All in all, a potential blockbuster with ease, if successful in Phase 3.
If it leads to a NDA, then what are the potential sales of the drug? This will determine size of pop. I know Ron said Novartis thought it would do well, but potential market share either makes the drug a yawn, or a home run.
Right, it always comes down to market perception on these sorts of events. Best case scenario for sure is B is returned and PIII leads to an NDA like you said.
From what he has said publicly he has no definitive info on binimetnib, unless that has changed, then he can buy shares. I see he was awarded options based on the return of the drug so I think that tips the scale toward a return, or Arry thinks it gets returned. The two real questions are how will the phase 3 pan out? If phase 3 leads to a NDA, returned is better, not returned is Ok too. Second question is how will the market react to either scenario? I think it gets a pop if the news is good, but not holding my breath waiting.
Maybe its time to come out and do some more cheer leading looks like the PPS is taking another dump. dare you spend a penny of your own money buying shares of your own company on the open market.
BOD its time to start looking for a REAL CEO with some spine................
While holding the stock, you can sell October $4 calls and get a $.15+ premium, depending on the premium being offered that day. I got $.22 last week.
Anytime in the coming months. I don't think that Dr. Sandor being hired was just a coincidence. I think they brought him on in preparation for binimetinib being returned. He will most likely be responsible for the ongoing development and Phase 3 trial program.