Good question. Most of the times I sell half once stock has doubled. Of course, most stocks do not double just because I bought. So I use various things like fundamentals and technical signals to guide me.
And another anti trust problem for Novartis. They acquired GSK's Tafinlar but they have in house Encorafenib ( now two BRAF inhibitors.)
Who ever gets Encorafenib will need the complimentary MEK. Figure out the result.
And still no discussion; no analyst acknowledgement; no marketing; no press release; nothing....poor execution...apparently it's simply swoon-time over something that's been known for months. And we're still looking at 2016?
4710 Filanesib (ARRY-520) Demonstrates Potent and Rapid Activity in Preclinical Models of MM, Dependent on Bcl-2 Family Expression, and Synergistic with Dexamethasone and IMiDs
TAKE THAT O THE BANK look for a nice pop
2016 story really, yes it might pull back some after the spike. I figure this way, if I back out the cash on hand plus cash and research funding nvs will do, ignoring all phase 1-2, but only looking at the 7 phase 3 studies, we are paying 57 million per study. Deep discount, to potential revenue. The market is valuing them at about 20% of their potential, or less, time will tell. Phase 3's are always a gamble but with 7, odds are one hits. The market will correct the price once that happens, maybe by June-July when Astra reports, or 2016 with FDA approval.
Figure this way, NVS was going to pay Arry 422 million in milestone payments before royalties for mek-162. Yet the market is valuing the phase 3's at 57m. NVS saw the value at way more than the 422m they were going to toss arry as the drug hit milestones.
I'm new to ARRY but studied it extensively last weekend. Risk to reward is phenomenal. Lots of cash (no dilution risk), and lot of shots on goal here too. At its current price, it's about as safe a biotech as I know of right now. Little downside risk with massive upside potential.
In your research did you see they have/had an atm At The Market stock sale program in place for a couple years to raise cash? This has been part of the constant pressure on the stock. Last Q they did not sell shares, and this NVS deal makes it appear they can retire the program completely. I agree on risk reward, think it should be in the 9-12 range, but it is what it is. It appears they have enough cash to last through 2017, and if all pans out should have 2 drugs on the market by then.