Here anything other than the updates given on Monday? Seems like we have a little cargo ship flying around with a bunch of orange tang on it and no one is saying a word. Maybe I am being a bit hard but, somewhere there should be some updates, no?
Could be. I'd like to see the 'glitch' resolved and I'm still waiting for a solid analysis of the earnings fundamentals going forward. At my age I have decided, finally, to be more cautious with my investments. How do you guys see the earnings & cashflow for the next few years? P/E? I am cautiously optimistic on the sidelines.
On the plus side, this gives the Cygnus (or Cyngus?) team a good opportunity to work through a situation together with NASA looking over their shoulder. Successful resolution will leave everyone involved stronger. We're in a marathon, not a sprint. I think they can do it.
Indeed... Not only that but the launch was flawless.the Antares is now a viable medium class launch vehicle.
Ch, I am just disappointed is all,. Orbital is great company. They do a ton of necessary things for this country, and delivering cargo to the ISS is just one of them. They will fix this.
No doubt the decision to wait until after new crew arrives makes some sense, however, the added Uncertainity will not help the stock this week. Everything seemed so flawless until Sunday morning ,and as an investor, it would have been nice to see this go off without a glitch. Trust me, Outside of the Orbital team, no one is rooting harder for these guys to succeed. A lot of blood sweat and tears went into this mission, and these guys have quite a bit of experience dealing with glitches. As I said in another post recently, nothing seems to go easy for ORB.... Maybe because , this stuff is hard.
I can' t see this going over well in the marketplace. This is very disappointing to say the least. No updates since 745 am yesterday?
Pretty good explanation about the close proximity GPS system in the comments to this article: http://news.yahoo.com/cygnus-arrival-iss-delayed-least-2-days-nasa-153122977.html
From what I have heard or read..... Cyngus is "human rated" , whatever that means. Culbertson maybe the driver here for ORB.
SpaceX has already won some seed money from NASA on the crew capsule contract, CCDev. They are in process of converting the Dragon capsule for that purpose. They also are modifying the Falcon engines and had some anomalies with the engine testing recently, which has pushed back their first commercial launch. While no doubt SpaceX is the innovator in the launch industry, they too will have their ups and downs. The thing is , they, and now ORB, are the only two non governmental entities to reach the ISS( fingers crossed). Great achievements for both...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Clam, thanks for the feedback. Whether its head n shoulders or cup n handle, the stock appears in good technical shape, correct?
The fundamentals should look pretty darn good going forward, given a Cyngus success. I kept pointing out that there was/is a revenue downside should this mission fail. Orbital was booking some net revenues at a reduced profit rate. I am going to guess that there are probably 40-50 mil in net earnings which have not yet been recognized , and will gradually be released over the next several quarters. In addition to the revenues they will be booking at more normal margins with each successful mission. I don't think we get that kind of talk in the next CC, but with another mission possible in December, the year end call should be full of glee. I also think that new orders for the Antares might propel some revenue expansion and increase in the multiple from 15. Cyngus may yet have some other applications(space junk?) going forward with some modification. There is also an add on to cargo delivery contract coming soon. The satelitte cycle also favors some new orders over the next few years.....okay, I am drinking too much cool aid right now so I will get off the box. Think I will switch to wine in about an hour.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I should add that the chart shows a convincing "golden cross" in late 2012 that was confirmed by a pullback and kiss off the 200 in Jan 2013. I'm talking about the 50 day moving average VS the 200 day. The golden cross is a strong chart formation showing momentum in the right direction. Pull up a 5 yr chart and select 50 and 200 moving average overlays. See if you can see the formations mentioned above. You can easily google the formation names for more on them. I am just an amateur on this stuff. (PS: picked 5 doz nice oysters on Wed after the launch, shot 90 on Thurs and going fishing in an hour ...life is good out here in retirement land.)
Anyone know if there are plans to make Cygnus into a manned transporter? (I know it is not designed to be recoverable at present. PS: where is SpaceX in this regard?
I looked at the chart and comments posted on Market Pulse recently and I dont see the 4 yr formation as a "cup n handle" rather just several unsuccessful attempts to breakthrough $19.50 area. But the formation I do see is an inverse "head n shoulders" with LS at 12 in Fall 2011, head approx 11 around May 2012 , RS around 13 in Fall 2012 and a neckline at around $15. That would predict a runup of about $4 (distance from head to neck) once the RS is achieved. That formation recently played out in the run from $15 to $19.
Now that the Antares leg of the stool succeeded and we have broken resistance to the $20's we are poised for clear sailing to the $28 area (meaning no prior intervening pivot points). IMO the remaining stool legs are: successful Cygnus demo mission completion and strong forward looking fundamentals. (I may jump back in on the next short-term pullback.)
I would welcome thoughts from the Amigos and others on the fundamental picture: meaning revenue and profit growth over the next few years. And are there any impending R&D or capex plans that would spoil the cashflow picture? I have not seen any full blown stock analysis articles on ORB on Seeking Alpha or elsewhere. That's it from clamland.
Updates on Twitter and Orbital web site. A couple of engine burns and the all important free fall and abort tests performed. Awaiting NASA review.
Great stock tweet on Market Pulse page. Sure could use the Clam person about now. Something about cup and handle formation breakout. looked very good to me, as Tom, Clam and I can attest. we drank that whole cup . It confirms a few resistance levels on the way to 27.89. 21.65 Held today. Fingers crossed for Sunday docking, it has been a long journey for Orbital ( and the here amigos!)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
One should never underestimate the ignorance of the general news media about most topics. On a totally unrelated area, I heard one refer to the Lone Sailor statue at the Washington Navy Yard as the "lone soldier" as if soldiers served in the Navy and wore sailor uniforms including "dixie cup" hats.