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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Ramifications of FDX accident

    by dudesbag Apr 14, 2014 11:25 AM

    Here comes the first of several lawsuits. Filed by the mother of a tragically killed honors student, the suit claims that FDX vehicles have a history of catching fire. This will be a long, arduous and painful litigation.

  • If you read their story dated today, you'd think the news was fresh. As it is, they're referencing a vote taken some time ago that was referred to in a Wall Street Journal article of April 11th. They're simply regurgitating the crux of a 2 week old story. So, as I posted back on April 11th, the issues seem quite resolvable and for a respected site like the Motley Fool to simply try to grab a headline by stating out of date news should be beneath their dignity- or perhaps not.

  • Reply to

    No earnings guesses?

    by dudesbag Apr 20, 2014 10:51 AM

    Actually, good doctor, I agree with you to some degree. However, UPS has spent a good deal of its recent history with a P/E of around 20- in fact its TTM P/E is 21.57. If we meet or exceed projected earnings, a share price comfortably close to our all-time high of $105.37 is within reason. Since margins are much tougher to grow as customers continue to downgrade their service level choices, its imperative that we beat the revenue numbers to be able to exceed EPS. That of course is predicated upon volume, both domestic and international. As e-commerce continues to grow, the theory of multiple deliveries to one address as the optimum profit theory is tested. So, the combination of the Post Office last mile arrangement and the urgency of the ORION roll-out must be emphasized. In addition. we've taken some solid steps to improve international service abilities by enhancing hubs and some modest acquisitions. Meanwhile, FDX has seemingly decided to focus on other types of cost control methods such as early retirements from their express unit and the replacement of fuel inefficient aircraft. I believe they have much tougher EPS #'s to achieve in order to meet their forward expectations. Some of their recent quarterly results have supported that belief. So, we'll soon see how we make out and I agree that if we fail on either the top or bottom line, we should see a drop into the low $90's. Good luck to us....

  • Reply to

    No earnings guesses?

    by dudesbag Apr 20, 2014 10:51 AM

    since the # has been lowered from $1.23 to $1.10 one can assume that a miss is almost impossible.....and this company which seems to get its estimates lowered quarterly seems to just eke out the lowered estimates....i just find it hard to believe that with the continued lowered revised estimates quarterly that this stock is even near $100.....who in their right mind would buy this stock when they continue to revise their estimates lower every quarter...jmo

  • Reply to

    Boycott UPS!

    by aladinwiz Apr 3, 2014 4:17 PM

    In boycotting UPS you are actually hurting the same workers that you are trying to support through your actions. Without packages to deliver, those same workers will be out of a good paying job with health benefits. If you asked those same workers what actions you should and should not take to support them, - you may be surprised by their response...

  • C'mon guys- it's getting cumbersome answering myself....

  • Reply to

    Earnings--April 24

    by frozenfast Apr 15, 2014 3:54 PM

    Way too late for a warning. If you recall, UPS did the right thing and warned about 3 weeks before the last earnings report. FDX chose not to and missed by a large margin but focused their Dec-Feb report on the improving metrics from their cost savings initiatives (including paring down of express staff) and the revamping of their air fleet. As usual it worked for the but they have some real hard expectations to meet while the UPS EPS and revenue #'s for this quarter are a bit conservative. Keep in mind that the pent-up volume from the weather has to be released at some point. It doesn't just disappear and probably a lot more people were shopping with their computers than in store traffic as a result of the weather. Also, the returns volume has seen nice progressions. This will be a tricky earnings report that could go either way.

  • Reply to

    Earnings--April 24

    by frozenfast Apr 15, 2014 3:54 PM

    I think UPS will miss the estimates. The weather was horrible across the entire country in January and February. The only thing that kept FDX alive for the quarter was December since there quarter is December to February. Either UPS will warn Monday or they will miss like FDX. If that happens, I believe the stock will drop a few dollars from where it is now,
    Less volume due to snow storms and shut downs. More fuel due to driving in bad weather. More fuel for heating. This has been a very bad winter probably the worst since the 1990's.
    I do believe UPS is a good stock for the long haul but maybe you want to take your profits now.

  • Reply to

    Earnings--April 24

    by frozenfast Apr 15, 2014 3:54 PM

    Share price now near $98. Could partially be the result of a slight EPS beat by Union Pacific Railroad and they just missed revenue projections despite earlier warnings of harsh weather impact. They are seeing gradual economic improvement and today's discussion about what appears to be an improving hiring environment and less new unemployment claims than expected is probably helping. So, if we hold the upper $90's going into earnings and slightly beat and can speak favorably of the contract negotiations, thins should turn out well.

  • Reply to

    Earnings--April 24

    by frozenfast Apr 15, 2014 3:54 PM

    More reasons to like our future share price. While air freight and logistics companies are DOWN 8% YTD, rail and road companies (3 major rail lines and Ryder) are up 3.5%. CSX authored a nice report a few days ago and most of the others report either later this week on before just UPS next week. It's time for our sector to rebound as well. The UPS expectations are conservative and could/should be slightly beaten. Our trailing 12 month P/E is just over 21 and, if we meet our next years estimates will only be 16.38 at today's share price It would seem logical to assume say an 18.5 P/E multiple and that would put us in within close range of our all-time high of $105.37. So, unless we have unexpectedly serious and prolonged labor trouble, the Russia annexation problem worsens, and perhaps some other unforeseen events materialize, we should be looking good. I would be more dubious about FDX. .

  • Reply to

    Earnings--April 24

    by frozenfast Apr 15, 2014 3:54 PM

    I like our chances to just beat expectations. Expectations are for revenues to beat last year by 3.5% which is close to the price increase YOY. The EPS analyst expectation was $1.12 just 30 days ago and has come down to $1.10 probably due in large part to the poor FDX report that included January and February. A few hours ago, CSX reported their quarter and beat lowered expectations both in revenue and EPS. The stated they were still impacted by harsh winter conditions. So, while it would be hard to envision our beating what the analysts are looking for by more than a few pennies, we should beat none the less. A real coup would be to climb over the $14B revenue number as our solid margins allow much of that improvement to go to the profit bottom line. Since analysts project $13.91 that would be hard to achieve though. Perhaps the most important take away will be the going forward advice. No doubt, there will be several repeated questions about the WorldPort negotiations and those in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. As I had posted earlier, it seems like the issues aren't anywhere close to insurmountable and 5 years labor agreement would take away from the poachers ability to do what they do.

  • Share price sliding the last few sessions....wonder if this is in anticipation of a disappointing number next week or will more decline be waiting for us? Any whisper numbers floating out there?

  • Reply to

    Ramifications of FDX accident

    by dudesbag Apr 14, 2014 11:25 AM

    Good to know. I wonder if public perception would trump that? As a long-retired UPS'er, I didn't know the facts you presented and you know how the politicians can be.

  • Reply to

    Ramifications of FDX accident

    by dudesbag Apr 14, 2014 11:25 AM

    Trailers don't cause accidents, tractors do. Weather they are pulling a single, doubles or triples, every 200k hours or so there is a fatality. Triple trailers have a the best safety record at UPS.

  • The tragedy took place in California and the final analysis of the cause will take months. The issue of twin trailers however will be front and center early on. As we all know, this method of transporting volume cuts down tremendously on sorting and handling thus being more efficient, cost effective and cutting down the potential for damage. If I'm not mistaken, some states even allow for triple trailers. So, one must wonder if we're looking at the possibility of future without twin or triple trailer operations.

  • According to a Dow Jones Business report, the latest supplement language was rejected by a count of 2,804 to 185. This sounds bad but there are several reasons to not get too worried. First, there are some 8,000 or so Teamster employees there so about 37% voted and usually the more negative ones tend to do so. Secondly, there seem to be 3 stumbling blocks in the negotiations. The biggest problem stated is the need to put in place more equipment to get the workers from the parking lots to their assigned work areas. This turns out to be a need for more shuttles and more metal detectors. I'd like to think that is an easy fix. Another issue is a pension increase for some workers that was part of a prior offer that was rejected and the payment offer rescinded. Let them negotiate that one. Lastly, there's a similar issue involving a $1K contract ratification bonus. So,I'd like to think those are not issues that would lead to a work stoppage. But, like I mentioned before, there is a wildcard circumstance here. Most of these employees are part-timers and not UPS career-minded people for the most part. Who knows how many depend upon medical coverage or would like to remain at UPS for a good period of time. It's the mavericks who are feeling their oats for maybe the first time with little to lose that don't look at the larger picture. If I'm the Teamster leadership and I know that all but 3 locals have approved the 5-year National Agreement, I'm not looking to risk everything for the sake of an unsatisfied few. Also, correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the contract can go into effect until every local ratifies it. So the 5-year clock doesn't start ticking and the improved benefits don't start accruing until all sign. Anybody is welcome to correct me.

  • Reply to

    250 Maspeth drivers get their jobs back

    by dudesbag Apr 10, 2014 10:51 AM

    BUT the TEAMSTERS does NOT have enough money in the strike funds to support a strike

  • Reply to

    250 Maspeth drivers get their jobs back

    by dudesbag Apr 10, 2014 10:51 AM

    The plot thickens. It looks like they rejected the offer as expected. Not feeling good about this.

  • Reply to

    250 Maspeth drivers get their jobs back

    by dudesbag Apr 10, 2014 10:51 AM

    Good point xitabil. That article about the testy negotiations seemed to indicate that the issues were not huge though. The scary thing though is that part-timers are not as career/family bound as the majority of Teamsters at other locations. Unfortunately, Worldport is obviously the the major cog in the UPS air operation and any disruption there would be catastrophic. I'd like to think that those who value the relationship between the Teamsters and UPS would come to their senses and get this resolved ASAP before lost volume and job losses occur. The same of course goes for the other locations that are holding ot on their supplemental agreements.

UPS
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