You are basing it on $95 per share. That is 20 times future earnings. I believe the stock will drop somewhere between now and January back to share it should be at about $90 per share. 16x earnings has been where it has traded most of the time.
Understood about the FedEx IC's and that soon to be disgraced business model if the states have their way. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the whole issue collapse into some sort of class action suit. But my point was that people not engrossed in the UPS way of doing business don't know how much productivity/efficiency/profit is involved in the whole "methods" concept. It'slike people thinking the no left turn policy is silly when it saves 10's of millions of vehicle miles and lessens our pollution output.
Hello dude, nice to see someone with such profundity of UPS' inner workings back on board. I'm going to go out on my sturdy limb here and make a educated guesstimate (my word,) that the 2014 first quarter dividend will be closer to $0.07. I've been hoping for a special one time dividend for more than a year now, I think the company is still a little bit too conservative for that right now. It's interesting that no-one has brought up the subject of a stock split yet..so I will. A 2 for 1 would put the share price just around the IPO range, its been 14 years since the last one and I think it's time.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
but the only problem is- Fed Ex pays the contractors by the piece/ stop...etc....so they don;t care if the guy fishes around in his pants for 2 minutes looking for his keys...playing with his junk.,..whatever...when it snows and it takes a ups driver 30 miniutes more to do his route...it costs Fed Ex $zero extra...they have absolute cost certainty....ups supervisors spend their time ojsing drivers...etc--- Fed Ex contractors dont need to get ojs;d....
So today I'm accompanying my mother at the doctor's office when I see the FedEx ground independent contractor get off the elevator. I ask my mother to watch how he handles the delivery from the elevator to the front desk staff. First he stops outside the door, puts the 3 packages (small) down and does an inputting procedure. He then picks them up, comes in the door and proceeds to wait in line behind an elderly couple for about 45 seconds until he's "served.' He completes the delivery and then fishes for his keys before leaving the office. I ask mom what she thought about the driver's approach. She says she thought it was pretty efficient. So I go on to relive some of my past glory by telling about the definitive methods that drivers are taught and how to be tactfully aggressive to get signatures quickly. I suggested to mom that all told he probably wasted about 45 seconds to a minute. She asks, "what's the big deal?" So I simply say ," mom, what's 45 seconds X 120 stops?" After she looks at me for a bit I say 54 minutes. I think she gained a new perspective.
Its going to be a stretch for the dividend rate to remain around 3% as the stock price rises. Would be nice though.
You're right about sell on the news. I think we see a steady climb next week to around $97. When they make the dividend announcement and finalize the master freight agreements with the hold-out locals while getting the freight group to come to terms we'll get another bump up.
Dangerous game with no overhead supply, 52 week high is wrong place to short, like trying to cap a Volcano.
i agree this is in nose bleed area....but as analysts jump on board and raise price targets daily its hard to short here....for missing the revenue targets on an already reduced guidance last quarter...and meeting targets on lowered guidance it is hard to understand this valuation and why it continues to climb....hardly any growth year over year even with the extra day counted in....irrational exuberance..probably.....but where else you going to put your money ....bonds?
Many of us were ecstatic that the UPS bid to acquire TNT was rejected by the European Union. It turns out that the just released TNT results lend credence to that belief. Q3 sales for TNT were down 2% YOY and the operating margin shrank from 3.7% to 3.2%. Despite all this, shares are up markedly in recent months and their forward P/E sits at around 20. Someone on this board recently made the erroneous statement that the UPS going forward was in the 20's. The reality is that it's just over 17 and therefore sounds very reasonable compared to TNT and when it's considered that we're about to raise the dividend anywhere from $.05 to $.08.
I retired in March at 57 and am not affected, but do recall reading something about that. Thanks for the clarification !