once upon a time the work week was 48 hours. changed it to put more people to work. robots don't pay taxes or invest in stock market. only the fellow who owns the robot makes any money. the present congress is not likely to make changes like in past to employ more people. (or boost wages) the race to the bottom has to much momentum. will take more than a little market correction to get back on track.
Unbelievable it a state like NJ . what are they thinking ? was this ground or air drivers/ workers ? makes no sense what were they promised by Fred's gang? hard to compete on an uneven playing field.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Waiting for $80-84 to buy. This market is crashing daily, funds are selling, to keep gains. Real eatate's bubble has popped too. we never got out of the Bush Recession, just put a bandaid on it with QE. (which is ending)
Spending $8 mill a day in the middle east for 13 yrs has consequences. Too many unemployed and no $ for a gov work program fixing rd, bridges and infrastructure. No congress to offer suggestions, lame duck pres who has given up on congress ( who wouldn't) WE CALL THIS THE WRITING ON THE WALL.
I'd like to think that with oil under $90, unemployment lowering (albeit not terrific jobs), inflation contained, peak season planning optimal, ORION build-out doing well and the larger # of packages falling under DIM rate configuration, the going forward advice for Q4 and beyond should be solid. GDP is OK, China has opened up previous restrictions vs UPS and FDX, on-line shipping (and therefore a healthy # of returns) continues to grow exponentially and healthcare logistics remains a high growth sector and we are the leader in that field. I find it hard to fathom how our report should not be solid. The only concerns are the Eurozone and China GDP growth. I think everything else should trump that although.
UPS should be closing the gap on FDX stock price once earnings are reported this month. Similar to FDX, UPS should have higher volume and a boost from the lower price of fuel. Should be a good quarter. Looking forward to it.
BTW, GDP for Q@ was revised upwards to 4.6% so why the UPS malaise? Q3 is now expected to hit 3.1% with 2015 looking about the same. The only thing I can think of is that the Eurozone is killing us. Another thing is this term "full employment." The so-called strategists are lining up to say that there will be pressure on the Fed to raise the base interest rates when this happens supposedly in mid-2015. My question is how can anyone believe that sub-standard wage/bad benefits full time jobs and non-benefits part-time jobs have anything to do with a full employment scenario? But then again, the dual mandate part of the Fed's decision making includes the base inflation rate which is well below the magical 2% level. It just seems to me that until housing starts gets back to normal and disposable income (we are a 70% consumer driven economy after all) returns to a decent level based upon better paying and full-time jobs, UPS will not be able to reach revenue goals. How FDX did it is clearly infused by its ground operations. Their IC model has allowed them to increase margins significantly there and until the legal issues catch up with them, it will continue. Note that FDX is near their all-time highs again today.and we're- well, we are where we are.
UPS will be conducting an interesting CC in a few weeks. As we all know, FDX hit a home run during theirs. They hit on all cylinders including revenue/EPS beats, share buybacks, cost containment program proceeding as scheduled, volumes improved, margins improved- basically everything the analysts and investors wanted to hear. Somehow, their various legal problems- independent contractor legal losses, price fixing in France and the knowing delivery of illegal drugs within the U.S.- didn't seem to hit the radar screen. Meanwhile, our updates have included infrastructure expenditures for both peak and future needs, the better than expected rollout of ORION and the higher # of peak season hires. All these are costly items. Add to that the malaise in Europe (our area of supposed strength) and one must wonder how our Q3 will be described and the going forward advise for Q4 and beyond. We seem to always throw in the caveat that the stagnant GDP hurts our performance. OK- but why hasn't it hurt FDX in the same manner? Something needs to change and the best starting point would be with a significant revenue/EPS beat. Get our P/E down to FDX's level. When that happens we'll start to steadily climb into the $100's. We got there before backsliding. Meanwhile, FDX's recent performance has them with 12-month price targets over $200. C'mon guys......