You will find the name of Joe Moglia as one of the principals of Fundamental. Google him and read about him. He is a heavyweight player.
You might know him from the days at TD Ameritrade.
Or maybe you know him from coaching college football ?!?
this recent activity is the proverbial loading up of the train that's getting ready to leave the station. Just saw another Form 4 late in the day and get the feeling that these funds "need" to be in Relm by the end of the year albeit at bargain basement prices under $5.00/share. JMHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Interesting trading pattern the last couple of months. The Market Makers are deliberately keeping the price under $5.00/share it would appear. Probably some kind of deal with the "funds" that are accumulating RWC. I don't know where they're getting shares to sell to these guys but they're NOT getting mine.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It would be a positive move for Relm to be a recipient in some of this business.
From the Seattle-Times: King County is considering asking voters for as much as $250 million in property tax to pay for a new emergency radio network.
“We’ve been fortunate in King County to have this fully integrated system and we’ve done everything to maintain it,” said Patti DeFazio, finance director for Seattle’s Department of Information Technology. “But the technology is becoming obsolete.”
The vendor for the existing network is Motorola, and the company has told the board that it will cease all support for the network’s components in 2018, DeFazio said.
“The system is critical to the operations of our first responders,” she said. “The police and fire departments are completely dependent on the system for dispatching emergency calls, and our public utilities also use the system.”
The board’s partners have been working on a replacement plan for several years, Jarrett said.
“We’ve gone out into the market and asked who would be willing to provide us with a new network. We’ve asked for new technology to be better in several ways,” he said.
The board’s partners have received two bids — from Motorola and Harris Corporation — and is “close to signing a contract with one of them,” Jarrett said. “Now we’re ready to engage in a discussion about financing.”
Yes! Super WOW! What a great Christmas present. That one order is almost equivalent to 10% of all RWC revenue for the year. Great job Team Relm!!
EJ, your numbers ought to also reflect that not all of the last years sales were APCO 25 digital products. If these are subtracted out also, you see even more growth in digital APCO25 products, and I assume mostly new products. They are just now starting to gain traction with the new products which I believe are roughly doubled from the prior year. It will not take long at that rate for these to become a vast majority of the sales and if they are even growing at half that rate, there is a very bright future ahead.
I don't foresee many $5 mil contracts in the near future. That comes after you are consistently winning the smaller contracts and become a better known player within the space. I think the stock could be over 20 before they can get a single $5 million contract each year.
In addition, RWC should have pricing power. At half the price of Motorola products, they might be perceived as half the value. If they are higher priced, they will be perceived as higher value. As they get better known as a player in newer areas, raising prices may actually help sales, and certainly will help profits by an even larger amount. They just have to make excellent products to justify higher pricing.
WHATS NOT TO LIKE??
Last year sales were $7.6mm and during that quarter Relm had two press releases announcing $1.7mm contracts with public safety agencies and another press release showing $1.2mm in military sales. Both were expected to be fulfilled in the 3rd quarter of last year. Subtract those lumpy contracts from 7.6mm and you get $4.7mm ordinary (non lumpy) sales. This past quarter we had no announced (lumpy) contracts but sales grew to $8.6mm. Thats up 83% when you adjust for the lumpy contracts.
Most on wall street will just look at the top line and miss the great improvement in base sales. It should take another quarter or two to confirm this trend but as of now, it looks to me, that the market and customers are increasingly accepting the value proposition that Relm products offer.
I don't know when or if Relm will get the 5-10mm lumpy contracts we all hope for but I do expect to see more of the 1-2mm contracts on a more regular basis as the market shows further acceptance of their P-25 products.
Lets look for some additional good news on the call.
Were really all I expected with lack of announcements. Shares are fairly priced in the $4's until they can demonstrate the ability to bring $5M+ contracts, you really can't expect the share price to more. RWC has been around along time- they know this business, but for some reason the next step up doesn't come. Maybe they need to get bought out by a larger more diversified company in the public emergency service field- something to supply real marketing and sales muscle to their very good products. For some reason a great product at a 50% discount isn't enough by itself.
Yes, I'm frustrated by our lack of sales breakthroughs, but when you look at the risk/reward it's still a very low risk vs. potentially very high reward situation being a RWC shareholder. I keep saying the same thing "let's give'm another year and see what happens"- and that's still what I'm saying today.
My thesis is that RWC starts by getting the small contracts, where motorola cannot outspend then by tens of thousands of dollars for marketing to those small contracts. Once RWC is winning those they move up a rung on the ladder and get the next larger size of contract. These things take time. A look at the sales of the newer radios has been showing gains in the recent quarters. I believe they are mostly smaller contracts. Given the lack of announced contracts, I believe that is all they would have received in the third quarter. (I do not know if all, some , or no municipalities follow the federal government with the fiscal year staring 10/1, but I doubt they do. If so , we might see these smaller ( municipal) contracts hit more in the fourth quarter. )
RWC has always had "lumpy" sales. I would not make too much of sales for any one quarter, but rather average them over a year and note the general trend, not each data point. I am not as optimistic as you but doubt they will hit your numbers. My best estimate is revenue of 6.9- 7.8 million, and for many that will be seen as a miss. ( I hope your numbers turn out to be correct, because if they do that much business without any large federal contracts, they are clearly on the right path and ready to start moving up the sales ladder. Your numbers would make $6 seem quite undervalued IMO)
I look at a longer term and still think that they are making progress in invading motorola territory. Part of me hopes we see a big plunge in stock price so I can put my money from sales of Apple and Bank of Satan into RWC here at a low. You cannot sell out of the stock completely, because the best exit scenario for these new big holders is a sale of the company. And a fall in the stock price gives a good point for a company to try to take out RWC.
Hard to be too confident with the lack of sales announcements last Q. I guess I'm hoping for some positive comments in the PR and on the CC.
I like the fund buying at $5 and above. Considering the risk of a micro micro cap that RWC is, they have to be expecting AT LEAST to double their money .
In a recent CC, Mr Storey said they were "chipping away" at the competition .... I think that's about right, the big orders are still out of reach- for whatever reason.
I believe that Relm had some backlog carried from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter. In addition I believe they may have had a good quarter even without the $1mm plus orders that are usually announced. I believe that will do north of 10mm in revenues and earnings in the 7 cent range. That would put revenues up 30+% yoy and earnings up more than 50%.
I would still like to see some major announcements in the 4th q but this is usually one of the slowest quarters of the year. If the company can achieve my revenue target for the 3rd quarter without any major announcements it will show some real traction with their products that were released in the past few years.
The stock should react quite well. The market should be willing to pay more for a company with steady growth than one with lumpy revenues.
Think any of these no bid officials will go to jail for costing taxpayers millions. Hope so. Doubt it. Would love to see Relm go after the actual officials and name names in local papers.
I am long RWC, quite long, and believe there is a lot of money yet to be made here. I think they will take share from Motorola over time (more than a few quarters, more like over the next several years. Each 1% of Motorola's losses to RWC is a gigantic gain for RWC, and I think they will eventually get 5 to 10% of Motorola's business. Motorola cannot fight back very much because a huge part of RWC's advantage is in pricing. Motorola will not reduce pricing by 25% on the 90% of sales it retains, because it would then run huge losses, and even if they did this RWC would still have some pricing advantage.
RWC was due for a pullback after its meteoric rise, and especially when sales failed to materialize for the last quarter. I took money off the table at the plateau, some a bit early even.
I also sold Bank of Satan (BAC) to raise extra cash for the drop. Then I wished for a climactic selling day, just like yesterday. (So I could restock my full position)
Well yesterday my wish comes true and the market drops 400 points and I am thinking I can buy below $4, maybe even 3.50!! But no! RWC has to go UP on the WORST DAY OF THE YEAR! So my orders sat unfilled while they (Privet and Global likely) run the price back up.
It is not as much fun playing in my sandbox now that even bigger bullies have moved in.
Long term sentiment: GET OUT OF MY SANDBOX !!!
RWC closed at 4.18 on the last earnings release. The company has $2.00 of working capital and no debt. You are paying only about 2.20 for the future earnings at these levels. The company has had good sales these past 2 quarters and I expect 9-10mm this quarter. Earnings will get about 6 cent per share boost next year as amortized software costs drop to nearly zero from nearly 900k in 2013. with just a little more growth RWC could be earning 25 cents per share equivalent to 10x current price less working capital.
Im using the sell off to add to positions.