It is too early to develop forecasts for the year ahead beyond broad strokes. It requires the first 3-5 weeks into the new year. Even cycles get extended or compressed in the last few weeks ending a year and entering the new one. As have posted about before; ‘Adam Smith(s) Central Banking’ concepts have been expanded to an increasing number of countries requiring easier transfer payments and currency conversions. This is main reason behind the global expansion of trading exchanges.
Almost universally these central banks use a western fiscal calendar. The machinations required to adjust/correct balance sheets skew data almost across every asset market, but especially in the Forex and debt markets. These weeks are great time for spread traders!
I am registered and licensed__I obey the regulations and ethical standards that my professional designations demand. Therefore I refrain from posting specific recommendations for individuals that I have not interviewed. It also would not be fair (ethics) to clients who have expended coin for rendered services.
So I tend to post about broader macro forecasts and generalized asset allocation/sector perspective(s). Which by the way__I have been on target with over the last 2 ½ years posting on this board.
However, I can legally and ethically post about adjustments to my own portfolio; without that construing a specified recommendation.
I have lately posted about shopping for CEFs and UITs. Again I feel the best starting point is Barron’s published list__because on two pages one can obtain most every offering separated into general categories. CEFconnect, Closed End Fund Advisors and Preferred Stock Channel are good websites to follow with. The latter will allow a csv (comma separated value) download that can be input in2 a MsExcell spreadsheet__this will then allow basic sorting, formulations etc. That sheet once saved as an .xls can also be inputted to MsAccess for enhanced sorting. By the way you can also download csv files from yayhoo which is handy for historical equity prices.
When it comes to bonds and international securities I have an advantage in information access that is not available to retail investors.
There are a number of authors other than myself on seeking alpha that pen articles about income oriented investments.
This is the first time I have ever seen a negative EPS for AGNC. That means they are bleeding money. Yes, stay away. I owned this stock several times but got out when they said interest rates were going to rise in 2015. It has gone down 4 bucks a share since then. NLY not looking good either. These used to be the high fliers along with bio techs but both are getting hit hard with more downside to go.
Ouch Phil! But if chumps acted on his own forecasts the he/she will hv additional capital loss carry forwards to add to the 2013 loss carry.
Ussually a good year is followed by a bad year, and everything averages out. I think we are overdue for several bad years in a row to average out these overbought, extreme valuations. Utility stocks hit new high and was strongest group, I believe this group was very strong in 2007-2008. Anyone have opinions on 2015 and where to park capital after taking huge gains in December. I need to plan for my taxes in January 15, estimated taxes are due.
Since we started to talk about my last year recommendation, BMNM, it has gone from $1.40 to 1.75. up another .35 or 25% New Years Eve gain. You can't beat low priced beaten down stocks, the capital appreciation is superior to overpriced assets.
There is a reason why you decided on the handle of " Klumps ".. Your brain is full of them and I might add a little mushy too.
I have to make money every week, or I don't eat. Seeing that I am alive and well, and able to buy prime rib at Jewel for $19.95/lb, a six pound roast cost $120.00 plus tax, I have to perform and be successful to eat. You also have to be objective and very humble, everyone makes mistakes, you have to have a strategy to minimize you mistakes and a plan of analysis and due diligence to operate efficiently and effectively.
Sorry, there is two Bimini's, sorry, I own too many stocks, I get confused sometimes. But they all go up with very little risk. This is solid gold, an almost 15 bagger as Peter Lynch would say, in less than a year. I love beaten down, broken down REIT's, you really get stuff at a penny on the dollar. AGNC, at $22 a share is very richly priced for perfection, I would feel safer with $2.00 a share and a divvy cut. I am watch Breitburn (BBEP), this was in the mid-20's in early summer, and is now at $6 with a 27% yield. If you get this for $2-3 with a 35% yield, you can't go wrong, all the negatives are priced in.
That I have seen in my lifetime, was the drop of OIL from $147 to $32 in 2008 in 5 months. I think we will see records broken this time in oil. The period now is resembling 2008. High Yield bond bubble broke back then yields fell to 7.5% and there was over $700 million issued. After 2008, the yields skyrocketed while prices fell and averaged 23.5%.
I believe the same process is starting, except there is over $1.6 Trillion of high yield debt, with yields average down to 5%, for junk bonds. Just recently, the high-yield bonds are selling off, especially in oil, off over 20% now and could be headed to 60-80% off. Enormous amount of debt, so an average of 60% loss is possible.
M-reits use leverage and also offer junk-like yields of 10-13%. This industry is approaching a very similar situation where the short end of yield curve is flattening and the long end is trending down. MASSIVE SHRINKING OF YIELD SPREAD.
This happens when you have a FED that distorts the money supply for 5-6 years, the effects are going to be massive like a tsunami effect to come.
2015 PREDICTIONS - THE GREATEST BUBBLE BURSTS TO COME......
Many oil companies who used low cost debt to go into risky drilling ventures will find it hard to pay off their debt leading to bankruptcies or restructurings, common stock holders don't fair too well here. The OIL BUBBLE BURST has just started and will be the biggest ever.,
The Student Loan Bubble will start showing cracks as students will be unable or unwilling to payoff huge student debts for degrees that they won't be using. Most of the jobs being created today are minimum wage or entry level. The low cost easy access student loans increased a lot of people to get degrees far in excess of the needs of industry. Like Oil, Quantitative Easing distorted this industry into an over supply of degrees along with over supply of oil.
The see no negatives stock markets continue to rally into the abyss.
My best m-reit last years Christmas present to this board. Recommended at $0.11/sh, a little over a dime and now $1.40 and raising there dividend. I love the beaten down REIT's, I wish there were more.
Name some that you recommend. I would like to study them. I have been taking profits in a lot of sectors, Utilities are extremely high. I also sold my short energy etf's. I have a lot of cash, it is parked in a Discover CD for 60 days. Where can I park some cash???? Funds, stocks, etc. anything with relative safety.
see not 1 person. THE FLAME is making the opposite point you dingbat. THIS IS A DECLINING ASSET. see the $22 handle. while last Q michaelR was claining agnc would be $25-$26...and blah blah blah...ALL MISTAKEN AND DUMB. AND WRONG.