Die, weak hands, die.
Die, bears, die.
The earnings will be decent and this stock will CLIMB.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
In 68 I bought my first stock,
It doubled and some before I graduate,
then the bear market came and it was gone again,
back down to what I paid and less,
then the sell off picked up speed,
I believe all the talking heads on the street,
I thought to myself, is it going to zero,
Is this the End of it All.....
Is this the End of it Alllllllll.....
Is 69 my daddy said,
Don't put all you money in one egg,
My mother warned me she doesn't trust banks
But I am 100% in the stock market,
It doesn't make any sense,
I still believe all the talking heads,
I thought to myself,
Is this the End of it All
Is this the end of it alllllllllll.
Is this the end of it all...ping ping,
Is this the end of it allllll
Is this the end of it all.....ping ping,
Is this the end of it alllllll
Is ....this.....the.....ennnddd .....offfff .....ittttt ......alllllllll.
I think they will report well this aftenoon. Seems like a number of analysts has a relatively high opinion of AGNC so this drop in price today looks like a buying opportunity. Of course it can all not go well as we all know but I for one am optimistic!
So there should not be any surprises. We had ideal market conditions for holding mortgages.. If they don't do well this quarter, then they are not hedging and leveraging properly. Changing from 30 year to 15 year mortgages really was not the right thing to do in hindsight. Lets hope they cover the dividend properly.
REIT's are only managed for the Officers and the Management Company, the shareholder come last. This has been the 50-60 year history of Mortgage REIT's, everything is done to maximize MGMT FEE INCOME. As an investment, that is secondary to management it may not even be any motivation to make this an investment, it is all about taking advantage of the yield seekers.
I got into JCP at 6.25-6.50, you did better than me. I got out at slightly under $10.00 So you definitely think they will make it?
I didn't diversify like you did. I bought into energy, BP at $36 and OXY at 74, both a nicely higher. But I may dump soon, oil is very weak commodity and these oil companies have a lot of legacy costs, which could cause some surprises. BP is almost 44 for a net 22%, OXY is up 8%. I made 50% on JCP and booked the gain. I also made 22% -23% on 10 year treasuries. I also made short term trading profits of 65% on AGNC, but under 21 and selling over 22, numerous times. Also, bought 18-19 and sold at 22-23 numerous times. That is why I am here for the trades, but this has been a narrow trade for past quarter, 21-22, not much profit. I think we are getting near the first rate increase.
We started re-deploying cash into certain sectors, select countries and specific floating rate and Hi yield areas on 1/13 and 1/14 (that I mentioned in my early Jan post ‘My first wide brush’). I have been removing coin from certain sectors with every push towards new sectoral HIs thru the late 1st qtr and this early 2nd qtr. The lowest return has been +4.64% in an Industrial sector fund (FCYIX) with the highest 16.52% in an actively managed Emerging Asia fund (FSEAX), +15.24% in actively managed Natural Resource fund (FNARX), +12.86% (IXUS), +12.59% (IEMG) and +12.34% (IEV) index funds.
Continuing on an Intl/Emerging market theme on 3/10 additional money was deployed +13.70% (IEMG), +9.05 (FICDX), again IEV popping +6.84% with the lower return end being +5.55% (FNMIX) and +5.33% (LEMB) and that is ignoring the income payout. Those last two are nice coin from bond funds.
Individual issue standouts have been CVRR +34.4% (purch 1/21), NTI +22.7% (purch 1/21), GRH-PRC +24.16% (for those three I perceived no credible reason why the market sold them off with crude) (I may hold these three for income now for years), MSFT +12.14% (purch 1/27) and JCP +23.4% (purch 1/5) on what I perceived to be a double bottom with increasing RSI and money flow. Additionally I have swing traded JCP twice since January and hold a core position from $5.11 and hold 2020 debentures with a paper gain of +11% ignoring the addl income received. I believe JCP is on track to a full recovery (but a volatile road ahead).
Just a reflection on your comments, 93% of information or statements made during a bull market are false and misleading, versus 6.5% during a bear market. One thing about a down market, it brings a lot of truth and facts to the surface in the public arena.
I am not making this up, but there is data that shows the statements, reports, financials are all MISSTATEMENTS OR INACCURATE during bull markets, 93% of them only 7% are close to being accurate. Your statement is one of those, 5 straight years of 15% annual gains, not factual, because if you are quoting some index, none of them are accurate. If you are quoting the S&P indexes or the Dow or the Russell, for 5 years, you have to go back and put back all the stocks they took out and take out all the high fliers they put in over those 5 years.
If you quote a 10 year time frame, then you have to include the old General Motors stock which went from $106 down to $.06/sh before being delisted.
So anyone can show 15% per annum gains for 5 years, just let me sell off my looser and do an adjustment to show no loss from them and replace them with a high flier like Apple. The indexes employ ENRON ACCOUNTING during BULL MARKETS, they keep their losses off the balance sheet so to speak.
Zacks is the worst!
I always do the opposite of what they say. I bought CVRR when they made it their #1 Sell - I'm up 30% this year. When they slammed NMM, I bought it for another 30%!
On the Bull Market.....From Barron's.....
April 24, 2015, 4:25 P.M. ET
Chart of the Day: U.S. Stocks and Fund Flows Veer Opposite Ways
By Chris Dieterich
A worrisome trend has been playing out in recent weeks during the slow, grinding rally that lifted the Nasdaq Composite to its record high this week.
Money is actually leaving U.S. stock mutual and exchange-traded funds while the markets continue to rise. Fully $7.2 billion walked out the door last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch and EPFR Global. In fact, U.S. stock funds have shed assets in nine out of the past 10 weeks.
That’s an ominous sign for BofA Merrill’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett:
Technicals are very negative, VERY NEG., with indexes making new highs this is an EXCELLENT time to book profits and sit in cash and await to rebalance. For those who bought oil stocks at their lows, also good time to rebalance out of your BP (at 36 ) and sell at $44 for a nice easy $8 profit. Oil prices are going nowhere but down over the next 5 years, TOO MUCH SUPPLY, TOO MUCH DEBT OWED BY THESE SMALL PLAYERS.
Here's why AGNC is a POS (from Investopedia):
The days of easy money for American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC) are over -- dead, gone, and unlikely to ever return. For much of its recent history, American Capital Agency was what Charlie Munger would call a full-blown "cannibal" company -- one with a hunger for snapping up its own stock.
It set the pace for the industry's broad stock repurchases, quickly gulping up more than 10% of its shares in just 12 months, from 2013 to 2014. It was an obvious decision to make. Fears over the Fed's taper loomed over the share price, so it could buy back stock as cheaply as $0.75 on the dollar.
Buying back stock at a discount helped the company offset its declining book value from rising interest rates. In addition, it stood to improve the company's per-share earnings power -- a win-win for its investors.
Since the second quarter of 2014, however, share repurchases have been suspended, even as the stock continues to trade at a persistent and substantial discount to book.
Where have the buybacks gone?
Those who closely follow the American Capital "family" of funds have likely noticed its somewhat complicated relationship with its publicly traded manager, American Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS). Alongside its third-quarter earnings report in 2014, American Capital Ltd. announced its plans to restructure by way of spinning off its investment assets to become a "pure-play" asset manager.
The asset management company manages a number of different entities, from private equity funds to collateralized loan obligations, but its mortgage REITs -- American Capital Agency included -- are by far the biggest contributor to its revenue and profits.
By my estimate, American Capital Agency generated more than half of its manager's revenue in 2014. The mREIT pays fees to its external manager based on its adjusted book value. Basic accounting dictates that repurchases below book value increase book value per share, but decrease total book valu
Sentiment: Strong Sell
A lot of knowledgeable people are saying 2-3 increases in 2015 and 6 increases in 2016. If these folks are right, will you change your tune?