Why do you think the Russians have raised the interest rate on the crashing ruble?
Ans: Because their main source of revenue(oil) has crashed in price.
Lets me ask you this? Where would you put your money for safety? Russian rubles
or U.S. treasuries?
Since the Fed has curtailed QE-3, why is the demand for UST's so high?
Ans: We are becoming energy independent. We have the best university system,
the best military, and soon to be the best economy on the planet.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
NO QE JACK......REPUBLICANS ARE IN CHARGE and are looking at a restructuring of the TREASURY in the new year. FED may get eliminated and be replaced with a software program, saving the country 100's of billions just in salaries alone and 4-5 trillion in wasted investments in low return treasuries for its own portfolios.
QE won't help at all, because Baby Boomers are retiring at a real high rate now and this will continue for 10-15 years, DEFLATION is unavoidable. Hence, the only strategy left, is to RAISE RATES NOW, very high, like Russia and several other countries are doing to get capital flowing back into their countries, and then take advantage of all the fantastic opportunities available with all the investment cash to pluck up assets for pennies on the dollar during the deflationary collapse. What is happening in oil, will spread to every asset class, you have to understand demand is dropping everywhere due to demographics (ie. read Harry S. Dent), he was never wrong the past 5-10 years, the average investor was wrong including many professionals, and the markets in general, that is why we had a bubble in oil prices, stock prices and commodity prices. Now the free markets are coming back, WE SHOULD THANK THE RUSSIANS AND THE SAUDIS.
Are you reading the FED minutes or listening to financial press. The FED said everything is on for a schedule for a RATE INCREASE. They said it may come sooner than planned......FED announcements I got this from (not the financial press). Watch out who you believe, the professionals are saying that rates can be raise "AT WILL" anytime now, because the "Rules" the FED uses all show strong green lights. The first one could be as soon as Christmas Eve or New Years Eve. Basing you investment strategy on the financial press is the worst thing you can do. Russia just raised the key rate from 10.5% to 17%, a year ago it was 3%. Other countries are raising it also. Money will flow to the highest rate, even within a country. As high yield debt plummets in value, those 16-25% yields will attract a lot of money from Treasuries and puny dividend paying stocks with single digit yields.
I actually only had one loss in 2012 which was a carryover, everything else was a gain. I am risk averse, I am 99% sure of a profit before I commit dollars.
Here is some easy money, SHORT HIGH YIELD junk bonds. Use an etf, like SJB, I believe you can make some real good money first 6 mos. on this one, SJB is near its low of $28, this could easily double, maybe triple by next June. You will be shorting HIGH YIELD JUNK DEBT, lots of oil stocks issued this stuff, as oil plummets to $30, this will be the easiest money you will ever make. Short the SH, S&P500 etf short fund, is also another one.
The market was up more than 15% for 2013 and you were a net trading loser? Great trading.
Good point. I've been planning to hit the exit before the Fed raised rates, but they keep pushing that back.
AGNC also has no foreign exposure to trouble-spots like Russia China the Mideast, or the EU.
12%is a good rate of return.
Russia just raised their key interest rate from 10% to 17%. Any Russian REIT is dead.
The current stock ownership by Mutual Funds and Institutions is now at 55%. I haven't checked this
figure in a few months, but the last time I did, the number was in the low 40's.
I take this to be a positive sign. There is more "interest" in this company now that rates will most likely
be low for quite a while.
Their is no causal effect relationship btwn the early 80s and present. The early 80s reflected the political machinations attempts from Central Banks and government fiscal policies (additional taxation for imported oil__wage and price controls) to squish rising inflationary pressures. The oil enviornment was a demand draw vs. a 'Oligopoly' under supply.
Since oil is a world traded commodity (even more exchanges now than then the 80s) pricing has become more efficient__reducing arbitrage opportunities.
The causal relationship is one of over supply vs demand draw. We can see from the relaeses of 'Commodity Trader’s Commitment Report' which entities are buying down and making hedges. If it was not for buying pressure from Inida and Seatheast Asia countries (obviously stock piling) world crude prices wld b even lower.
There is little doubt in my thinking that OPEC is currently trying to flush out higher leveraged fracking and maybe even South American entities.
What is nonsensical is the wide brush being pricing applied to everything related. If I am correct about over supply/demand draw then why are refiners eqities being hit so hard.
Consumer credit growth spiked over the past six months. Consumers will use additional cash to limit credit use or pay down debt. We will see little consumption benefits from this. Nobody thinks it will last because it won't.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Never going to happen. Producer prices negative. New York manufacturing Index just dropped 14 points to -3.6 - the lowest in two years. Housing is flat to declining. Mortgage origination has dropped to the floor. I would bet they will be having a discussion about how eo stave off deflation and nothing about inflation. The only question is when do we get the next QE.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Right now as oil prices decline, more money is flowing into the consumers pocket, so this will offset any increase in ARM rates from FED raising the FED FUND RATE. Very high correlation with FED interest rates rising during OIL PATCH RECESSIONS. Remember the early 1980's, oil plummeted caused the Oil Patch Recession and Continental Bank of Chicago to go bankrupt in 1984, rates soared while oil plummeted, very high correlation.
I think they should raise rates sooner and take advantage of this BIG consumer fuel cost cut. Gasoline prices are almost half of what they were a year ago. All this extra money will offset the increase in the FED FUND rate. They should do this ASAP if they are smart. Plus, the distortion "Zero Percent Rate" policy causes, like overdrilling of oil and investment in oil production will get corrected and we can avoid a BIGGER BUBBLE bursting by bursting a smaller bubble now.
REIT's are highly correlated with the stock indexes in a market sell off or bear market. They always have. The REIT Preferred Stocks are not that well correlated to risky assets or stock indexes.
Was this an apology. Accepted. Hey, we can still be friends, we just have different views. In fact, the 32,000 capital loss is just one loss of many. I have partnerships, I can flow my transactions between the partnership to take advantage of the losses where the gains are. This is too complicated to explain, I just am use to using capital losses and flowing them into area I got gains and netting them out, all legitimate. I am not double counting, everything is above board. These partnerships, corporations, etc are entities and the capital gains/losses are treated differently than individuals, but when they come through on the K(1) to the individual partners or shareholders, they treaded the same and an individual. TOO COMPLICATED TO EXPLAIN, TRUST ME.
Yep, another crash day for agnc. was foretold. declining asset.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Ludicrous post, totally contravenes logic, common sense, and economic reality!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My remark is that most mREIT investors are total morons and have NO IDEA what mREITs are, what they are buying, and why. Also, most mREIT investors are prone to panic and rumor.