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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Message Board

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  • Buying more puts as my short on this one is on target !

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Response to Tony

    by daninfw04 Jan 18, 2016 10:16 AM

    Not so sure they will dump houses. As seen in the past, people will try all they can to keep them. Dumping second homes is a possibility for sure and a slow down in the purchase is a possibility but then we will see if the Fed changes it's view about interest increases which might have a big impact on the market.

  • Reply to

    Response to Tony

    by daninfw04 Jan 18, 2016 10:16 AM

    I hate to make universal generic decisions based on a few instances but here I go. Many have said existing home sales are slowing because supply is dwindling and prices are too high. On my street alone two houses were on the market for $50,000 to 100,000 more than assessed value. They have both taken them off the market about three weeks ago. In another week they are putting them back on the market for right at assessed value. They are going to blow out. Both also took their own pictures instead of a professional or I should say their agent did. They hired a professional now. They had done no painting on the inside or outside. Both repainted insides with lighter colors. I know about 6 people in real estate (brokers) and this has been part of the problem. Existing homes were getting 20-30 bids with half a dozen or so above asking price. Everyone was seeing pie in the sky. The taxing authorities raised the evaluation on my home over $75,000 last year.......that's one year. IMVHO this is being reenacted across the country. One reason that new home sales are still up over 2.5% from last year. HOV again because they have about 45 new communities this year will far exceed the averages. Nobody does dollars anymore. They think percentages. Everyone is concerned that China growth is only going to be 6.3% in 2016. That's on top of $6.8% in 2015 and double digits for many years before that. The 6.3% will be more dollars growth than 6.8% in 2015 but they say it's slowing down........
    That's like saying I would rather have 40% of $1,000 instead of 25% of $2,000.
    Oh, and about oil. It's cheaper for us because of the strong dollar but Europeans and others are paying 25% more than us because their currencies are down. Poor people in Canada which just 4 years or so ago was 95 cents Canadian to the US dollar are now $1.45 to our dollar. They are paying about 50% more for oil than we are. I guess I am the only one that looks at things differently. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Response to Tony

    by daninfw04 Jan 18, 2016 10:16 AM

    Worth closely monitoring.....I think it is safer and better return than builders and broadcast sectors

  • Reply to

    Response to Tony

    by daninfw04 Jan 18, 2016 10:16 AM

    That's where my other less than 1% is. I honestly never thought it would break $30. However, I don't see it going much lower. Most experts think the refiners are the way to go. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Response to Tony

    by daninfw04 Jan 18, 2016 10:16 AM

    Wow....thumb up on 85% cash...I only have 48% left :-(.....if market is entering bear, companies freeze hiring, people are losing money from stocks...why they still buy houses? plus investors may dump their houses for cash.....by the way, how do you think of Oil? isn't it presenting bigger opportunity than broadcast and builders? you are in the state with most oil and you probably know...lol...thanks

  • After BZH and KBH hit 52 week lows earlier in the week, we saw TOL, LEN and CAA all hit new 52 week lows on Friday. HOV only one of the group not to see a new 52 week low. I view that as a positive. Secondly, several members of the FED said last week they don't see any more rate increases in 2016 due to the price of oil crashing. Should be an interesting 2016. Nobody likes the homebuilding sector even though it's one of the few bright spots in the US economy. All this tells me this sector will outperform in 2016. Yes, it may drop some more. I will average down. Done this for over 40 years and always worked before 90% of the time. Sure, may have to wait 6-18 months but it will be a double or triple on HOV. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That's why I went to 85%+ cash before crash on Friday. Only holding HOV and another stock less than 1% of assets. HOV is too cheap to sell. Yes, it can get cheaper. If so, I will continue to add. Even if market drops another 10-15% which it might, HOV will probably drop too......but it will outpace the market going back up as results meet and exceed expectations. I just read an article on how strong the housing market was and one of the few really bright spots in the economy. Lowe's and Home Depot are benefitting as well. Investors will seek out those sectors in a downturn as a safer haven. Hourly wages are expected to increase 2.8% again in 2016. Cheap gas is giving everyone the most disposable income they have had in decades. In a recent poll taken a few days ago only 18.3% of respondents were bullish on the market.......The VIX broke 30 and oil hit a new multi-year low on Friday which has only happened twice in 30 years. Both times signaled the market low. Herd instinct is usually wrong. I am playing it safe but I expect a bounce this week. My favorite sector, broadcast, is getting hammered because analysts and investors think broadcast is going the way of publishing. I am buying for the spectrum. As for HOV, when it finally turns it will move fast. I want to be onboard. GLTA. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    52 Week Lows

    by daninfw04 Jan 11, 2016 7:14 PM

    Will start new thread to respond. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    52 Week Lows

    by daninfw04 Jan 11, 2016 7:14 PM

    Hi Dan, you have great insight on individual stock..no doubt about it...but, you want to have same watch on overall market too....if SP500 keep falling, performance of individual stock can not win over it....looks like SP is in a downtrend...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Debt was paid off

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 11:27 PM

    Sounds like your visit will always be a favourite grandma, grandpa memory for your granddaughter.

  • Reply to

    Debt was paid off

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 11:27 PM

    Everyone thinks their grands are the best but this one just turned three and talks like an adult with four and 5 syllable words. She knew every princess by name and sang their related songs for each one. More than I even knew. Just landed at DFW. Great trip. I waved at you coming back on Interstate 5 between San Diego and Anaheim! Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Debt was paid off

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 11:27 PM

    Do hope they do a press release. I believe a part of Friday's market selloff was due to the three day weekend. Tuesday will tell.

    An aside, hope your Southern California was an enjoyable one. Was your three year old granddaughter old enough to appreciate the princesses?

    DanT

  • Reply to

    Debt was paid off

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 11:27 PM

    However we might start getting upgrades from analysts as they realize no bankruptcy is going to happen for some time now if ever.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Debt was paid off

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 11:27 PM

    Debt technically was paid off at midnight last night so no press release if any till Tuesday with markets closed Monday. There will be no upgrades. Bonds were downgraded because rating agencies don't understand that HOV has almost a billion in assets not on balance sheet. They actually understand it but accounting rules will not let them recognize it. The real issue is that HOV is spinning off assets for cash which reduces assets to be distributed in the event of a bankruptcy. All bonds are already covered 100%. Until HOV returns to consistent profitability it won't happen. In fact if HOV did another land bank deal they might actually downgrade again......Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Let's see f the same credit agencies who were down grading HOV for the near term debt upgrade them for paying it off.

  • Reply to

    MAss selling in the market.

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 9:33 AM

    Looks like fortuitous timing to me.

  • Reply to

    MAss selling in the market.

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 9:33 AM

    Finally some intelligence on this board. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MAss selling in the market.

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 9:33 AM

    I HATE averaging down. I rather buy on the way up. But pulled the trigger again today at $1.41. Looking for some news next week on the debt payoff and a huge bounce.

  • Reply to

    MAss selling in the market.

    by jrkkek Jan 15, 2016 9:33 AM

    Actually, $1.37 is the double bottom. Trading high interest payments on debt for a partnership with a company that buys your contracted lots and resells back to you at completion as opposed to refinancing at higher interest rates is brilliant. Does 2 things, 1) completely eliminates the interest payments and 2) completely eliminates the debt. May effect profit short term, but I believe is a sound management decision. Also, a change from past management decisions. Also, dirt cheap oil may not be the markets friend, but it will be the economy's friend.

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