first of all if it were worth 4-6 it would be selling for 4-6. I think one of the reasons it keeps going down and its not a takeover or merger candidate is has no equity. too much debt. and the street knows it. They are not buying the stock because they don't have any money they are leveraged to the hilt and need whatever liquidity they have to continue operations. if that were to run out the game is over.
the shorts have nothing to do with the stock getting hammered the stock is weak because of the failures of the company to execute. profitability remains to be seen.
I have bought 200,000 HOV at an average of $2.365. Sure I didn't think it would fall this low. It's a gift. It also could go lower. I am in for the long term. If it goes down more I will buy even more. I have said before that many saw bankruptcy 5-7 years ago, I proved them wrong. I paid $2.365 for shares easily worth $4-6 to a buyer. HOV management will get this turned around or someone will buy them out. The other buyers are at or near 52 week highs. Sector is on fire. July was effected by the rains which was the most in over 50 years in Texas. I have three new HOV developments in my area with two very close. They can't build them fast enough. I suspect that if HOV drifts much lower we will see a large share buyback. They are nuts to buy more lots when they can buy their stock at $2 a share. It's a far better investment and might keep a competitor from stealing their company. The stock will go up 100% or 200% next 6-18 months. Again, we could drift lower because shorts are hammering.......but they also know this company will be profitable soon. A perfect storm is brewing. If company announces buyback, better than expected results and shorts rush to cover......HOV will pop very fast. $3 may be a 50% move but it could cover half that distance in a single day. I have seen it more times than I can remember while investing for over 40 years. Watch and learn. I could care less what it does Monday or next week. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
all of this rationalization, look at the chart, look at the stock price. The stock now has to go up 50% to get back to 3. there is no support it keeps breaking down. save your money and wait until it bottoms. I'm thinking it might be $1.5 but it could even go lower than that.
This falls in line with rationality... existing home sales would accelerate first and then new home sales would follow. The existing home bargains that remain are getting snatched up and only after that would you see a rise in demand for new homes. The continued reduction in jobless rate will also help drive demand for New Homes. Something else to remember, new homes are the preferred choice for buyers and the existing homes sellers may be looking to buy a new home.
HOV has a development down the road from where I live... I drove through it today for the first time believe it or not. What did I see? Several lots had new homes in process of being built and both townhouses and existing homes in the development appeared occupied. I did not see any "for sale" signs on the existing homes and townhomes in the subdivision... the only "for sale" signs were on empty lots.
I think it's encouraging to see what was taking place in this subdivision.. had it been more vacant and nothing being built, I might have considered re-evaluating my interest in owning shares of HOV but now I'm certain that I made the right choice and will continue adding on the recent weakness which I now feel is a blessing in disguise. I'll continue to buy on weakness and will do so for the rest of the year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
As the higher penalties kick in and much higher premiums, the consumer has no money for a down payment on homes. A family of 4 that works for a small company has to pay $20,000 out of pocket for insurance in after tax dollars. Then the deductibles are so high that they have to exceed $10K in most cases before Obamacare pays one dime! This is a total bust. The biggest effect it is having is on obtaining mortgages. Some banks won't lend unless you have proof of health insurance. They know that this obamacare is destroying the potential of any form of savings and wealth accumulation.
Meanwhile Freddie an d Fannie are insolvent and there is no guarantor anymore of mortgage notes. Obamacare is grinding the US economy to a halt. And when the Obama Admin talks about employment numbers; its all part time uninsured workers. The middle class has been decimated by Obamacare.
Don't expect housing to improve in any big way until the Fed requires banks to start lending again. Until then Banks will be better off speculating and producing much higher profits and returns.
Beyond the demise of the middle class you have radical social change occurring which most Americans oppose violently. These conditions spell real economic trouble.
Hov and some of the other builders are tough survivors but with these Gov headwinds and insane policies, the whole economy is teetering on disaster. Use extreme caution in markets.
If you believe a takeout is coming, HOVNP is a better play
..will immediately go to $25 with a financially strong parent either calling the paper, or just paying the dividend
Fri. July 24, 2015
Latest Report on Disappointing Numbers:
“There’s no question the housing sector kicked into a higher gear in the second quarter, but this might be a dose of reality that the acceleration is not as sharp as it had looked,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York, whose estimate of 525,000 was the second-lowest in the Bloomberg survey. “The outlook for housing still remains positive,” thanks to more jobs, rising household formation and good affordability levels.
IMO-we are approaching -Takeover Target price levels-
IMO_Hovnanian should buy back shares at this level.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I know its really only wishful thinking on your park but I hope you are correct. I have no position at this point.
I was thinking of buying a few shares but I still think they're in deep do do but maybe its overdone on the downside. the stock may be putting in a bottom here. but its not convincing yet.
Much like a tick on a dog's but. No benefit to the dog, but hard to get rid of without biting his own but. This is what Government is supposed to protect us from.
Tankers are hot right now and FRO is running harder and faster than all other tanker companies because it was the most oversold... even as news that shipping rates were soaring, FRO share price did not budge initially even as it's competitors share prices jumped. Now FRO is a raging bull and outperforming all other oil tanker stocks.
HOV is now finding itself in the very early stages of what I think is a similar situation. Housing market is getting hot and the most oversold stock will rebound and outperform it's rivals. Shorts are frantically covering on FRO and they can't cover fast enough. Same will be the case for HOV in my opinion.. I've been doing this for years and I've heard more non-sense from shorts than I could ever possibly quantify. Shorts aren't the smartest investors, they are chart readers but often they miscalculate and lose it all... more shorts go broke than long-term investors because shorting is a very risky way to make money in the market. You saw that short interest has been declining.. Guys that cover early are generally the guys who actually know what they are doing and who never lose.