might want to recheck post dates, but lack of post might mean that people that called it overvalued and it would tank when it was priced in the mid 40's-50's are probably kicking themselves since it has almost doubled since then. once one wastach becomes a reality it will be icing on the cake. was your ski's is all i have to say.
Analyst who are upgrading this stock must know nothing about skiing/boarding. Park City deal is not a "steal" by any means. Its already an overpriced beginning area that locals & real destination snow riders have tired of long ago. I think people must think they actually bought the ski area. All Vail bought was the base & the lift infrastructure. Just like their Canyons' purchase next door, they are leasing the actual runs from Talisker Land Holdings, Inc. @ rates much higher than previous owners. Yes, they bought both Canyons & PC to be a tenant.
The best part for Vail is the the base condo opp - but its not that much room & will cost a bunch. Plus read the local comments under the local coverage of this deal. They hate what Vail did to the Canyons & will hate the new PC condos also. I don't think Vail will get the ROI on any new development or on this deal that Wall St. believes. One story yesterday said that Vail Resorts expects $35 million in incremental EBITDA in fiscal year 2015 but didn't bother to say that was not NET. PC is already in decline (new infrastructure doesn't make new terrain) & will only get worse w/ Vail's overpricing to pay their large debt & land leases. The thing is it will take awhile for the street to see this so plenty of time to get short.
this is incredible that a retail brand like vail would not have a single post. was hoping for a little perspective on the park city deal. if this does show the stock market is just a rich guys game, nothing does.
No. Vail may end up with Park CIty Mountain Resort for free, and the some analysts are not taking this into consideration. It overpaid to lease Canyons in UT, but the 50 year lease (with 6 extensions) come with the spoils over the lease dispute with PCMR (Talisker owns the UPCM lease). PCMR was late with the lease payment, and may end up losing the operations of the resort to Vail (through Talisker/Canyons). This is huge if it were to happen, having two Top 10 resorts in on town and three overall in the Vail portfolio.
I cannot tell a lie. I did indeed send my stock certificates to Hermes a few years back and he personally oversaw the production a cravat which I now often wear, with great pleasure, on the slopes. You might say this is akin to wiping one's behind with $100 bills, which I would confess I also do, except that I have a man for that, a small brown man who get down on his cute little knees, just behind my behind.
Well they did not get perfection. No snow in Tahoe . As I have said as well as others the risk was to high. But why were so many analysts willing to take the risk and had it on their buy list. i am sure when they went on their ski vacations they did not get free tickets or free lodging or flights. But I would not bet against guides , instructors and other fringes.. In other words shown a great time.
I agree too. I was just revisiting this stock. I owned it in 2006/07, Bought around $40 and sold at $58. I was very lucky not to own it going into 08/09. A very attractive entry point would be 5x EV/EBITDA, which worked out a bit below $20 a few years ago -- but now, that works out at around $10. They have added debt increasing the EV, but the acquisitions haven't added much EBITDA. Clearly they have overpaid for recent acquisitions. An entry point with no margin of safety would be around 10x EV/EBITDA or around $38 -- which I could say is fair value -- so it some 70-80% overpriced.
It could be a good short. However, I think shorting IWO (Russell Growth Index) of which MTN is a small part might be a safer bet. A lot of small-cap growth stocks are overpriced. I'm not a fan of shorting. I just wish everything would get a lot cheaper as there is literally nothing attractive to buy -- stocks or bonds.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Agree and shorted this today. Even if CO/CA see's a bunch of snow in Feb, this thing is already priced for perfection, downside far more compelling.
Skiing has not been great out East either (as usual), but we did just get like 16", had a blast at Pico.
Ski season in Tahoe is a bust, snow is coming in February and not much at that. Long term is looking terrible for ski resorts. How this trades at 68 instead of 28 is beyond me.
you are correct, Tahoe sucking HUGE but Colorado is doing well. Long term Vail is a bust but apparently not yet. Should trade at a PE of 10 or less....
Google the SF Gate article "Despite drought, skiing still great in Tahoe". Sounds like they are able to make plenty of snow, and conditions are ideal - light jacket, sun, no wind. It sounds a bit ... heavenly.
So you are saying the revenue off season at Kirkwood, Heavenly, Northstar will offset the poor ski season and will not effect Vail corporation total earnings . You said "No need to worry about Tahoe" are you sure !!!!
Priced for growth, not perfection. How many more ski resorts can they add to the portfolio? How many more vacation rentals can they add? No need to worry about Tahoe. Tahoe will take care of iteself. People come there for more than the snow.