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Yes Vail (MTN) is just a rich idiot's stock who skis and takes 1 run down the bunny slope and hits the bar and talks about how "I own stock in the mountain!" and can feel like "he really knows the company" b/c he skiis there. Exactly this is a THINLY traded retail stock. MTN has DEBT and it's OVERVALUED! MTN is really a luxury retail stock with worse seasonality, like TIF. Even worse like a bad REIT that doesn't throw off the same cash flows. TIF has a PE of 24, MTN: 38 hmmm. The Ski Resort Industry PE is 20, MTN TWICE as much. That ain't overvalued? Did I mention the Debt? A fair stock price for MTN is $85- 90 (and I'm being generous) bc at $90 the PE is still 25! Still 25% higher than the industry average. No matter how you slice it MTN is a joke at $115+ and it's only here due to computers pushing prices buying and selling to each other. Suckers buy.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Vail is nothing more than a fashionista equity for those who ski. it's a thinly traded retail vail crowd, mostly of those who hang out at the bar inside ski resorts and tell each other about how they can make more than parking money in the bank. What they don't mention is vails debt load, leverage and exposure to seasonaliy. the stock typically does well during the front end of ski season, but then underperforms the major us stock indices thereafter. better move would be to buy the s&p500 with broad diversificatin among 500 stocks, including apple, nflx, facebook, gm, autozone, clorox,, ... Well you get the picture. vail is allso under-delivering on earnings vs the s&p 500. grossly so. do you homework and look closely at the "de-celleration in revenue and earnings" over the past 8 quarters. it's ugly. worst part is the stock has been bid up from over buying anything with a yield in equity-land. we rate vail (mtn) our number one income short for 2015 among income stocks. We would short mtn and go long spy as spy offers growth and vail resorts offer nothing more than a bar story over a hot buttered rum at the fire inside one of the ski resorts that vail opperates. when this stock tops out, it will be are race to the bottom in record time. price target for 2015/16: $85. top should coordinate with 3 to 6 month post lift off of rates at the us fomc. we will short the stock on any visibility of a u.s. Rate hike.
SD pulled those numbers from NWS, the 4.5% tax does not apply to season pass holders, so thank you for the new parking structure for us season pass holders. reading is an elusive art you should look into. next time you feel like someone is staring at you while at the t-bar, look up toward the top floors and it will be me sipping some 2010 screaming eagle napa cab from my private cellar. enjoy the upcoming season since the avg snofall for breck since 2008 has been 300+ inches according the NWS
Summit Daily, your cutting edge source for news. By the way some of us are not stoners. Stay in the flatlands loser, and pay top dollar for YOUR DOPE.
Some of us get up in the morning and know what the snowfall is. You are not one of them, but hey keep buying the lift tickets, by the way your getting hit with a 4.5% tax this year in Breck. you can read that in last Fridays Summit Daily.
summit daily (if you know how to read) reported 321 inches for breck, 278 for copper and 235 for keystone from nov 1 to april 19 stop visiting the green cross stores and start waxing those skis