Small public company just gave birth to 10 mill shares and has a total float of 14mill. IPO was priced at $9 a share and they own 13 resorts. Sounds like they plan on being a yr round operator with alternative activities that don't require snow .Thats what MTN needs to do so they can even out the 2 horrible quarters against the 2 incredible ones they have each year. Maybe add some indoor water parks and or outdoor ones like they have on the east coast that the private ski resorts have done. Our PE at 111 is nose bleeding and the depreciation and good will on the balance sheet is increasing . The low float is what keeps us up but at this price I can see some new shares being sold and pay down the debt would be the best use or invest in the properties for year round operations.
Season pass sales end today, we shall see if they extend or if the goals were met.
A week late start for opening, but 36 inches last week, 5 last night.
I have been out 4 times this year and there definitely seems to be tourists, lots of rental skis, and paper tickets for early season.
I would keep it in the portfolio unil late spring at the earliest. I know that our group plans to get to Vail in February, and we'll probably leave about $20,000 there based upon what we've spent in the past. May as well as earn some of that back in the price of the stock
might want to recheck post dates, but lack of post might mean that people that called it overvalued and it would tank when it was priced in the mid 40's-50's are probably kicking themselves since it has almost doubled since then. once one wastach becomes a reality it will be icing on the cake. was your ski's is all i have to say.
Analyst who are upgrading this stock must know nothing about skiing/boarding. Park City deal is not a "steal" by any means. Its already an overpriced beginning area that locals & real destination snow riders have tired of long ago. I think people must think they actually bought the ski area. All Vail bought was the base & the lift infrastructure. Just like their Canyons' purchase next door, they are leasing the actual runs from Talisker Land Holdings, Inc. @ rates much higher than previous owners. Yes, they bought both Canyons & PC to be a tenant.
The best part for Vail is the the base condo opp - but its not that much room & will cost a bunch. Plus read the local comments under the local coverage of this deal. They hate what Vail did to the Canyons & will hate the new PC condos also. I don't think Vail will get the ROI on any new development or on this deal that Wall St. believes. One story yesterday said that Vail Resorts expects $35 million in incremental EBITDA in fiscal year 2015 but didn't bother to say that was not NET. PC is already in decline (new infrastructure doesn't make new terrain) & will only get worse w/ Vail's overpricing to pay their large debt & land leases. The thing is it will take awhile for the street to see this so plenty of time to get short.
this is incredible that a retail brand like vail would not have a single post. was hoping for a little perspective on the park city deal. if this does show the stock market is just a rich guys game, nothing does.
No. Vail may end up with Park CIty Mountain Resort for free, and the some analysts are not taking this into consideration. It overpaid to lease Canyons in UT, but the 50 year lease (with 6 extensions) come with the spoils over the lease dispute with PCMR (Talisker owns the UPCM lease). PCMR was late with the lease payment, and may end up losing the operations of the resort to Vail (through Talisker/Canyons). This is huge if it were to happen, having two Top 10 resorts in on town and three overall in the Vail portfolio.
I cannot tell a lie. I did indeed send my stock certificates to Hermes a few years back and he personally oversaw the production a cravat which I now often wear, with great pleasure, on the slopes. You might say this is akin to wiping one's behind with $100 bills, which I would confess I also do, except that I have a man for that, a small brown man who get down on his cute little knees, just behind my behind.
Well they did not get perfection. No snow in Tahoe . As I have said as well as others the risk was to high. But why were so many analysts willing to take the risk and had it on their buy list. i am sure when they went on their ski vacations they did not get free tickets or free lodging or flights. But I would not bet against guides , instructors and other fringes.. In other words shown a great time.
I agree too. I was just revisiting this stock. I owned it in 2006/07, Bought around $40 and sold at $58. I was very lucky not to own it going into 08/09. A very attractive entry point would be 5x EV/EBITDA, which worked out a bit below $20 a few years ago -- but now, that works out at around $10. They have added debt increasing the EV, but the acquisitions haven't added much EBITDA. Clearly they have overpaid for recent acquisitions. An entry point with no margin of safety would be around 10x EV/EBITDA or around $38 -- which I could say is fair value -- so it some 70-80% overpriced.
It could be a good short. However, I think shorting IWO (Russell Growth Index) of which MTN is a small part might be a safer bet. A lot of small-cap growth stocks are overpriced. I'm not a fan of shorting. I just wish everything would get a lot cheaper as there is literally nothing attractive to buy -- stocks or bonds.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Agree and shorted this today. Even if CO/CA see's a bunch of snow in Feb, this thing is already priced for perfection, downside far more compelling.
Skiing has not been great out East either (as usual), but we did just get like 16", had a blast at Pico.
Ski season in Tahoe is a bust, snow is coming in February and not much at that. Long term is looking terrible for ski resorts. How this trades at 68 instead of 28 is beyond me.
you are correct, Tahoe sucking HUGE but Colorado is doing well. Long term Vail is a bust but apparently not yet. Should trade at a PE of 10 or less....