I agree too. I was just revisiting this stock. I owned it in 2006/07, Bought around $40 and sold at $58. I was very lucky not to own it going into 08/09. A very attractive entry point would be 5x EV/EBITDA, which worked out a bit below $20 a few years ago -- but now, that works out at around $10. They have added debt increasing the EV, but the acquisitions haven't added much EBITDA. Clearly they have overpaid for recent acquisitions. An entry point with no margin of safety would be around 10x EV/EBITDA or around $38 -- which I could say is fair value -- so it some 70-80% overpriced.
It could be a good short. However, I think shorting IWO (Russell Growth Index) of which MTN is a small part might be a safer bet. A lot of small-cap growth stocks are overpriced. I'm not a fan of shorting. I just wish everything would get a lot cheaper as there is literally nothing attractive to buy -- stocks or bonds.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Agree and shorted this today. Even if CO/CA see's a bunch of snow in Feb, this thing is already priced for perfection, downside far more compelling.
Skiing has not been great out East either (as usual), but we did just get like 16", had a blast at Pico.
Ski season in Tahoe is a bust, snow is coming in February and not much at that. Long term is looking terrible for ski resorts. How this trades at 68 instead of 28 is beyond me.
you are correct, Tahoe sucking HUGE but Colorado is doing well. Long term Vail is a bust but apparently not yet. Should trade at a PE of 10 or less....
Google the SF Gate article "Despite drought, skiing still great in Tahoe". Sounds like they are able to make plenty of snow, and conditions are ideal - light jacket, sun, no wind. It sounds a bit ... heavenly.
So you are saying the revenue off season at Kirkwood, Heavenly, Northstar will offset the poor ski season and will not effect Vail corporation total earnings . You said "No need to worry about Tahoe" are you sure !!!!
Priced for growth, not perfection. How many more ski resorts can they add to the portfolio? How many more vacation rentals can they add? No need to worry about Tahoe. Tahoe will take care of iteself. People come there for more than the snow.
Season is looking good with 40" in the last 5 days. Great crowds last weekend and will be packed this coming weekend with another foot on the way! Finally I good year for sky resorts.
I agree what are these analysts thinking/ company has a huge investment in Tahoe and as I see it the stock is priced for perfection. Much to risky at this price.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
For sure the MTN customer has disposable income and their portfolio has increased and thus they will have confidence to spend more money on skiing and all other winter vacations At the same time it seems to me there really is a very high risk for this company to increase in value , you not only need outstanding dependable conditions for the whole season , but the markets to continue to increase. At the price MTN is today I would lighten up and for sure not initiate a position. Risk reward does not make sense.
Vail Resorts Reports Fiscal 2014 First Quarter Results and Early Season Indicators
BROOMFIELD, Colo., Dec. 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: MTN) today reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2014 ended October 31, 2013 as well as certain early season indicators.
•Resort Reported EBITDA loss, which includes the Company's Mountain and Lodging segments, was $66.5 million for the first fiscal quarter of 2014 versus a loss of $54.5 million in the same period in the prior year. This includes operating results of the Urban Ski Areas and Canyons, transactions in fiscal 2013, which generated $7.6 million of negative EBITDA, including $2.7 million of integration and litigation related costs (Canyons, together with the Urban Ski Areas, referred to collectively as the "Acquisitions").
•Net loss attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. was $73.4 million for the first fiscal quarter of 2014 compared to a net loss of $60.6 million in the same period in the prior year.
•Sales of season passes through December 7, 2013 for the upcoming 2013/2014 ski season were up approximately 13% in units and approximately 16% in sales dollars versus the comparable period in the prior year, including the Acquisitions in both periods.
•Company reissued guidance for Fiscal 2014, which was unchanged from guidance issued in September 2013.
•In the first quarter of fiscal 2014, we closed on two Ritz-Carlton Residence units, and one One Ski Hill Place unit. Net Real Estate Cash Flow was $7.5 million for the first fiscal quarter of 2014.
Commenting on the Company's fiscal 2014 first quarter results, Rob Katz, Chief Executive Officer said, "Our first fiscal quarter is historically a loss quarter since our mountain resorts are not open for winter ski operations during the period. The quarter is driven primarily by our late summer mountain activities, dining, retail and lodging operations, and administrative expenses for our year-round employees. Our Resort EBITDA