I agree too. I was just revisiting this stock. I owned it in 2006/07, Bought around $40 and sold at $58. I was very lucky not to own it going into 08/09. A very attractive entry point would be 5x EV/EBITDA, which worked out a bit below $20 a few years ago -- but now, that works out at around $10. They have added debt increasing the EV, but the acquisitions haven't added much EBITDA. Clearly they have overpaid for recent acquisitions. An entry point with no margin of safety would be around 10x EV/EBITDA or around $38 -- which I could say is fair value -- so it some 70-80% overpriced.
It could be a good short. However, I think shorting IWO (Russell Growth Index) of which MTN is a small part might be a safer bet. A lot of small-cap growth stocks are overpriced. I'm not a fan of shorting. I just wish everything would get a lot cheaper as there is literally nothing attractive to buy -- stocks or bonds.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Agree and shorted this today. Even if CO/CA see's a bunch of snow in Feb, this thing is already priced for perfection, downside far more compelling.
Skiing has not been great out East either (as usual), but we did just get like 16", had a blast at Pico.
Ski season in Tahoe is a bust, snow is coming in February and not much at that. Long term is looking terrible for ski resorts. How this trades at 68 instead of 28 is beyond me.
you are correct, Tahoe sucking HUGE but Colorado is doing well. Long term Vail is a bust but apparently not yet. Should trade at a PE of 10 or less....
Google the SF Gate article "Despite drought, skiing still great in Tahoe". Sounds like they are able to make plenty of snow, and conditions are ideal - light jacket, sun, no wind. It sounds a bit ... heavenly.
So you are saying the revenue off season at Kirkwood, Heavenly, Northstar will offset the poor ski season and will not effect Vail corporation total earnings . You said "No need to worry about Tahoe" are you sure !!!!
Priced for growth, not perfection. How many more ski resorts can they add to the portfolio? How many more vacation rentals can they add? No need to worry about Tahoe. Tahoe will take care of iteself. People come there for more than the snow.
Season is looking good with 40" in the last 5 days. Great crowds last weekend and will be packed this coming weekend with another foot on the way! Finally I good year for sky resorts.
I agree what are these analysts thinking/ company has a huge investment in Tahoe and as I see it the stock is priced for perfection. Much to risky at this price.
Sentiment: Strong Sell