I'm also going to be looking carefully at margins for 3Q. We had been trending at around 24%. They dropped to around 22.5% in 2Q, which it was stated, was largely due to a one time order an packaging change for shipments to Costco Canada. This margin number at some point needs to increase.
At 24%, I'd estimate we need around $5.3-$5.4 million in sales to break even. If we can get that even to say 26%, that drops the breakeven point to closer to $4.9-$5 million. Still well above where we are now, but that's a $400K drop to hit breakeven if we can get the margin up a measily 2%.
10 minutes till D Day I guess.....
how is jones craft or local? please. craft soda companies are doing well. jones is not craft in any sense of the concept. their main soda line is generic artificial chemical soda. artificial flavors and preservatives. they have photos on the label and call it premium. and - golly - collapsing sales! hmmm. mystery to be solved. I KNOW! sell it at walmart - the PREMIUM soda capital of retail. walmart is a real trend setter for the premium soda market. go to whole foods and tell them you have a soda without artifical ingredients in it. you think they might show you the craft soda aisle and say, see any empty shelf space?
has always been the best clue to where a stock may be headed. In the case of JSDA there has been a serious lack of heavy buying over the past few weeks but a noticeable size of shares being offered. If there is a measurable short position. and I have not been able to find one anywhere, it has to be in the day trading.
The only two positives in the trading activity is the personal position established by the CEO and the compete lack of any reported insider selling in the shares.
A penny share stock with over 38 million shares outstanding and a complete lack of public interest as a worthwhile speculation.
Let's see if todays Q3 results spark any real speculator interest.
It's an easy bet that distribution is still declining. Heck, that was an easy statement the last 6 years. Something different happened a few months back, and it took hold. Q-3 was the quarter that shareholders were waiting for. It's just a taste of what will transpire in 2015. when you see the opening price at ,47 today, remember you could have bought below .50 cents. and easy triple from here.
short lol. yes, shorts in jones have to be very concerned. jones has been the greatest short of century! and i frankly do not believe the 500 walmart store line. as well walmart is notorious for compressing margins of suppliers to the point where they are barely making money or even losing money. they are pros at spotting weakness. hey, i hope you are correct. but, no one can possibly explain why anything in the jones line is desirable to carry as a re-seller. its not unique in any way. it is not well-priced. it is not premium. it is not innovative. flavored sparkling water is the latest innovation. and of course the shelves are packed with sparkling water with flavors for the past 5 years by players with actual market share and budgets. a couple years ago jones was a bigger cap than reed! now its 15% of reed's cap. that is stunning. stunning. know why? reed has products that actually good quality. jones thinks jones is so cool nothing else need be done but the same mailed in nonsense from 1998. reed doesnt even have good management! but jones has had horrible management. the biggest sin of management is thinking they are awesome, merely because they showed up at work in the morning.
Listen to the latest conference call. Straight from the CEO's mouth...500 NEW Walmart stores picked up Jones and ALL Walmarts converted to the 4 packs which is great. I am sure Jones isn't losing money on Walmart but most likly not making their target margin but what vendor does at Walmart? Trust me...cover your short. You will get burned if you don't.
profits will be up? they dont have profits. as for walmart expanding 500 stores, where did you hear or read that? would be nice to see a positive metric somewhere. although jones probably loses money on every walmart sale.
i think you are correct. i would suggest that 3.8 is possible. at some point sales have to stabilize just based on the fact that they have cratered so much. i believe distribution is still declining however, not expanding.
Sales and profits will be up. Wal-Mart put Jones in 500 more stores and went with 4 packs instead of 6 pack assorted pack. Big Big difference to the plus side. Cue is a smart lady and has done well. She even put her money where her mouth is. Love it!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Any guesses on the revenue for 3Q?
Last year we were at $4.217 million. I believe the typical trend this year against last has been roughly 8-10% decrease yoy. This may be off, because I can't remember the exact figures I used when trending out 2Q, which I was pretty much spot on.
I'm hoping we can hold the $4 million level this year. Really, I'd love to finally see us hold yoy and possibly even increase, but I'm not sure how the new distribution has kicked in and how to account for that.
With that being said, I'm thinking that i'll predict around $4.1 million for 3Q.
why oh why would you expect demand for any jones product? seriously? it is entirely a me too as this point. there is no core product. craft products can grow in this environment. jones core brand ingredients read like a list of scary chemicals. and of course there is no profitable product line. i expect further yoy decreases with j clueless expressing confidence in the brand and the turnaround as losses slow. losses slow as you approach zero.
mostly same store checks, I do not trust the data, sales seem to be spread out from the core products and I can not find a trend.
dist is better, I expected sales to be better, they spike during events. find me a dist that is excited about the product as I wish to talk to them....of course more stores equals more sales,
I have solid data from mid nov through end of year, but i do not track all products.
I want to see sales increases on the shelf, suggesting more customers and true demand, Mr Nut calls that PULL.
I do not want to post something negative here, if you found honest excitement about the product (improving sales) please share it here....
how could they not have more sales YOY as the stores served have increased?
but cash is needed so hope that the product sold at a profit, now I ask you.... is hope a good investment strategy
I am waiting fr the qrtly report....
"if it wasn't for her shelling out 500,000 and putting in jonesy bank account there would be no jones soda"
lordy, lordy. we almost went bankrupt and no one knew. we dodged a bullet! down to our last few dollars.