Finally we have a resident cheerleader! I love MBT too, I just don't like it when it goes backwrds when I'm long. Last year I got ¢71 annual dividend but it started to go down immediately from around 10 to 8 and so on. This year the dividend will probably be the same, except the the Ruble exchange rate will make it worth about half.
US $ could go nosediving again also, looking at the chart recently, so investing in a few foreign companies can be protective in that way...
another telco i like is TKC...turkish telecom recently added some in my portfolio
duh....investors like me aren't taken a quick glance at yahoo statistics like you guys...trying to trash talk a healthy company...at record low prices...
The overvaluation versus the underlying shares on the Micex will ensure that over the long run this will underperform the broader Russian market. It's a good company, but remember the dividend is denominated in rubles which means this years div will be significantly less than what you might think. Go check out what the divi was last year in rubles, and use current exchange rate to convert to USD and then compare that to your cost basis, deduct 15% from that for the foreign withholding tax and then you'll know what kind of yield you're looking at here. Answer - it's a lot less than a lot of people are thinking based on a quick glance at Yahoo statistics div yield.
You really think I will sell a profitable and one of the cheapest telecoms in the world, besides that cheap valuation we long term investors get a nice dividend on top of that each year....no way I sell here....this ship is leaving the station better go aboard...7$ a share is a free ticket to the moon imho
Good call selling, I'd have done the same thing. If it drops to lower bollie it becomes worth entering for a longer holding period though. I'm already in and don't like to second guess the market so I'll hold for now, but if I were outside I wouldn't enter unless it touched lower bollie. Too much room to fall from here, with nothing there to provide support.
I'd be selling if I were sitting in this right now. With how high it's trading versus Russian shares, and with TA momentum oscillators all maxed out. A sharp correction seems likely once shorts spot it and pounce on it to correct the aberration.
Very high. I've seen it swing anywhere from 6% - 25%, often closer to the low end. To calculate just look at MTSS ME, convert from rubles to USD, multiply by 2, and you have what price this ADR should be trading at if it were to be trading with perfect parity.
Yes, that's why it would have to be a pairs trading strategy. This allows it to be market neutral (in theory), while the short would be constantly providing small profits in the form of leveraged ETF decay. Definitely not for beginners and would be complicated to employ, but it's an interesting concept. QIWI is about 3 times cheaper than YNDX, which is a bit of an anomaly, as they've historically tracked one another pretty closely, they're both the rockstar tech stocks of Russia, high growth, fantastic margins. I can't see any explanation for why QIWI is down while YNDX remains up. I personally find QIWI the superior business. SBRCY is a great stock, and I love OGZPY also. LUKOY I'm neutral on and not a fan of VIP which isn't a pure Russian play.
3x leveraged are insanely risky. Especially UWTI which could even get a 10 to1 reverse split soon. SBRCY ( yea I have 1000 shares @ 4.51), YNDX (You told me about it), LUKOY, OGZPY, VIP are some that I'd like to buy at their lowest in the next couple of weeks.
Actually the logic runs that markets always rise in the long run. If you want to remain permanently short look into a strategy that employs pairs trading 3x leveraged etfs, taking advantage of the natural decay in prices that these exhibit. I wouldn't re-enter MBT right now, it's one of the best performing Russian ADRS in the past month+. If you want to gain exposure to the Russian market/ruble, you should look for the laggards, QIWI for instance didn't share in the general market upturn, and remains oversold. It's a small cap and tends to diverge/be more volatile than overall Russian market, but still follows the same general trajectory. It's a fast growing company, with a solid balance sheet. It's riskier than MBT, because MBT is a telecom, one of the safest sectors you can buy, QIWI is tech/e-commerce, more competition, more unknowns, more risks. I'm still holding out on it, even if I have to hold until the summer sanctions relief that should spark a ruble/Russian asset rally. June isn't too far away, might even coincide with a sustained oil rally/OPEC deal.
I'm not sure if it will fall to 4's or low 5's again. MBT took a substantially higher price path even as oil took a dive. Even if oil reenters 20's, MBT will fall to high 5's to 6.5. But I may be wrong.
MM will keep this floating like a bear trap until I go back in. Took my 5000 shares out at 5.88 (purchased since December averaging down about 4-5 times). If I buy in now again at 7$ I can guarantee it will plummet right down to 4$ within a few weeks. I've decided to no longer ever purchase shares of any companies too much manipulation. I will only short for now to the next 50 years. Shorts always win in the long run. All economies have crashed and burn many many times throughout history. So I'm keep a large stock pile of gold coins and shorted the hell out of the market going long that strategy.