Wow. I just noticed that. Corporate insiders own next to nothing. They've been ringing the register all year while given strong guidance. Seems pretty deceptive and manipulative to me. No 13Ds either so it's all passive mutual fund investors.
Avxl had the goods at AAIC last week. Bibb is a good long term hold. AVXL is a screaming buy!
Aducanumab, if successful in Phase III testing, will not be available until 2018 or 2019. In the near-term BIIB can only boost revenue and share value through strategic acquisition.
with a forward P/E of about 16, and PEG ratio a little above 1, perhaps
some will view BIIB as a biotech "value stock"?
To me the selling seemed extreme, so perhaps it'll see a reversal
of fortune on Monday....
For the record, I have never owned BIIB before Friday, when I bought in
4 increments as it dropped.
It is in Phase 3 and will be on the market next year. BIIB went through the roof when this drug was simply announced to be in testing. Analysts say this could DOUBLE the company's revenue and earnings. You do the math. $300 will be so far in the rear-view mirror next year, it will seem like $30.
I have to agree with jserper regarding management's knowledge of soft sales figures and lower revenue soon enough to pre-announce lower guidance. A pre-announcement would have mitigated Friday's bloodbath.
The most unfortunate thing about Friday's CC was that management seemingly has no plan to address the soft sales of Tecfidera. Management could only say that it will work harder to educate doctors of Tecfidera's benefits. However, the sad truth is that doctors are steering away from Tefidera because of the FDA's label revision. They see more risk than reward for their patents and are choosing to prescribe other drugs. If those risks are indeed valid then sales of Tecfidera will continue to soften.
The biggest positive from Friday's CC was info about Aducanumab. I did not expect such strong, unambiguous support for the drug going into Phase III trials. The less than stellar data about the 6mg dosage in the Phase 1b trial could very well be the result of sloppy protocol or the small sample size. My gut tells me that Biogen will succeed in Phase III and that Aducanumab will be a major blockbuster, but the payoff (assuming it happens) won;t be realized for about 3 years.
With a solid pipeline the future is bright for Biogen, but in the short-term they need to boost sales and revenues with at least one major strategic acquisition.
I agree it starts at the top. And the CEO is charged to manage the highly touted people at Biogen. In the setting of this mess, why would the CEO let their the CMO join the SAB of a sketchy company like Flex Pharma for example. You'd think he'd be busy enough. So I agree they need to change things.
As of Friday's close only Gilead, Amgen and Celgene had market caps bigger than Biogen in the biotech space, and none of those three could fund an acquisition of Biogen because of current debt loads. In the pharmaceutical space there are only about 12 companies that have market caps of sufficient size to be possible buyers, but most of them are also carrying too much debt to be buyers. IMO there is only 1 company that could pull off a buyout of Biogen, and that company is Johnson & Johnson.
Yes, I am saying they want to issue their options with a low strike price. It's elementary, Watson. Just because you post the most, doesn't mean you know the most.
The issue with last week was how the entire set of events was handled. The 2016 forecast would be a non-issue if they did a better job with last week. As for stock options I know all about them - are you saying that they are happy that the stock dropped over 100 points last week so they can give out options to their employees and themselves at a lower strike price? I don't know you but I'm sure you are not thinking that way as that would be silly. It would also merit a lawsuit if there was intent.
To be "fine" they need to change and fast. Things need to start moving over there. CEO gone. Expenses reduced. Strategic acquisition.
They didn't comment on 2016 because they don't have final forecast numbers yet. They have longer term forecasts, but these are not tight until the annual plan is complete. That usually happens in the fall. I don't blame them for not commenting. Plus we know they want to buy back stock at a lower price. Oh one last thing. These companies issue these things called stock options. Usually happens once a year. When executive management gets their options do you think they want the price up or down? Rhetorical question as we all know they want it down as the lower the strike price, the more they will make. LOL. This is all nonsense. I have a couple of lots much lower from years ago, one at 389 (oh well), and one at 315 from Friday. I'm patient. BIIB will be just fine.
There's merit to that and I think you're right. However, what occurred last week points right to the very top of the organization. They need to start with a CEO replacement to help turn things around and create a better working environment. Sales will not produce because product, while still lucrative, is not good enough to sustain organic growth at this point. There is competition now as well. The best solution to the sales problem is two fold 1) cut sales expenses 2) acquire a new company.