It's on Lexis but you should just call the Orion Investor relations folks, they should send to you. Long file.
OK Sherlock. Let me know if you want any batting tips. I was quite the hitter in my day.
I am not a long in this stock. He said sell, I agree. And his handle is "expert". Don't take yourself too seriously.
How did you determine that the poster is wel informed? They used all caps? They agree with you? They have expert in their user name? Did you agree a month ago?
yup, and the lack of sales is due to the government shut down! hahahaha
wonder what the excuse will be this quarter??
But...but...you just gave your highest rating to three different stocks yesterday! How is this possible?
Yahoo! really needs to do a better job of getting rid of these spam-artists and stock promoters...
I think you are on crack. Who is your broker, I need to borrow your shares.
Ha! Be my guest ...
I bought on average at $4.80 or so, and I think it's a pretty strong sign of this company's prospects that the stock is up so much today with the market absolutely tanking, but interpret that as you will.
Only other comment before I leave this thread forever is this: I think once the re-branding to an LED-based company, which is taking place in October, will force holders to value this thing on a P/S basis, presumably somewhere in the low singled digits, 2-3. I hear what you're saying about profits, and margins, yadda yadda, but I'm almost betting on a bit of exuberance here with respect to the sales multiple. Good luck!
So they basically operate in 3 segments:
Their new design for the office lighting market got me excited. However I understand that even if it takes off its not manufactured in their Manitowoc facility, its outsourced (China). If true you will see knockoff of this design soon enough.
Also their recent order is for a car company so lets speculate its another order from Ford. This is for hanging lights, correct. And their contract with DG is also for hanging lights.
I like the story of the company and I'm long but the bloom is coming off the rose for me. Their new product I'm not seeing penetration in. Their historical products will not have the conversion without a quick install. A 2-3 year payback excludes labor and generally not worth many peoples times unless you have a snap in solution.
Hope you are right and appreciate your thought process, but they will not hit $90M this fiscal year and will lose money. They cannot build sufficient volume of LDR product in Manitowoc at the cost point needed to be profitable and have not started to buy/receive from lower cost offshore sources. Heard they already lost a large order/customer in Q1/Q2 due to this and of course those things do not get publicized. Good guess is they are selling at a loss to seed the market which isn't a bad strategy except the prices will erode over time as existing competitors and new players enter the market and the competition becomes more fierce. You heard it here first.
You're right, the model may be a little too optimistic on sales, but do keep in mind:
* These guys have an investor relations-related plan to "rebrand" themselves as an LED company. Other comps in the LED space trade anywhere from 2-5x sales. Even if you assume NTM sales will come in at $90 million, there is still huge room for upside on that metric alone
* They are guiding for, what was it? $90 million in sales in this fiscal year? So assuming a slight ramp with the LED rollout sales could easily come in at $100 mn NTM
* They've completely changed their cost structure since the new CEO took over, and they've said publicly that 15% operating margins are achievable (which makes since, because that's the industry margin)
Overall this company has a tough history, but I think these guys are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the LED rollout that is about to hit the nation (and, no, that's not crazy talk. If one big auto manufacturer thinks it can save several million a year on power costs, you can bet your butt that all of the others will do the same math).
I'm holding here with a $10 target.