Thanks- that's pretty good! So that begins around February 2008, meaning that even with the financial crisis included, and this recent hiccup, it's done 4.5X? That's pretty doggone good! It does seem like it will eventually test the recent high of 50, just a question of when. Wish I had bought at 21.50, would've been nervous being all in, but at least the downside is capped, unlike shorting UVXY.
There do seem to be a lot of people calling for a protracted bear market, which I suppose would take this down to single digits and would be hard to hold through, but maybe I can get my courage up!
Oh thanks- I am having trouble with yahoo, sometimes the threads disappear on me and then reappear for no apparent reason.
Oh one thing. there's no way that there has not been a positive return since 2004. No chance whatsoever. Those that say that are just wrong.
Re: XIV controversy of returns. I wrote to you in that thread you started. We should probably keep it there.
Thank you! I suppose if it hits $100, it won't matter if I got in at 21 or 25. (Or 30 next week ha ha). Do you have any comment on the controversy over backdated tests here? Some people seem to think XIV would have been 30% per year return, others are saying it would have been no return from 2004 to present.
yes, the shock of getting hit hard rattles everyone for a while so generally speaking it's easy to know what most people will do when faced with what you were proposing, immediately after.
I 'took it' with you and called it out to maybe give you that helping hand to jump on board. People mind less getting hit when they're not alone.
It's all psychology. I just play the odds of human behavior.
I am kind of a sociopath of sorts so i am lucky to not have those hang-ups as much anymore :-)
Anyway, jump back in, stay small, care less. It's only money.
You'll make it back,..unless you don't stick with it. This is a ridiculously good time to be involved.
Hey bro, almost missed this. I don't get on to XIV board much. I guess we just chat about XIV on SVXY board instead.
I don't have 10yrs but i do have 7 1/2 yrs worth of data that i personally have compiled and trust.
Within reason, we've done about 22% per year as a best-fit return. That would make us about 4.5X times in 7 years, or just over 7X your money in a decade.
Thank you brother- I appreciate you taking the time to respond. I admit it seemed too good to be true- something that goes up on average 30% per year and you set and forget- and it's true we've had an unusual situation with Federal Reserve manipulating stocks, but I thought maybe the financial crisis offset that and if it still returned 30%, that was good enough for me. I am not sure what the back testing issue is, will continue to investigate, in fact I wonder if Velocityshares will be willing to help me. We shall see.
I would trust the spindices website. They are the ones who actually run/maintain a few indexes. Also look up the mid term futures inverse index on their website too. S&p 500 has gone up 77% since 2005 when you include dividends. Also after more research it seems that the vix futures always like to stay in backwardation when the spot vix is over 30. You can still make money though but it's not the goldmine that you think it is.
Can you weigh in on XIV hypothetical performance the past decade? I have seen a couple of back tested things saying it would be up 15 fold the past 10 years. Then, as another poster here mentioned, there is another site that shows only a triple. If it really only tripled, during a period where the market went up so much overall, that's a game changer!
Still don't think XIV will get back to 21.50 or lower but one never knows!
OK, I went to spindices- it seems to be showing XIV would have tripled the past 10 years, which is certainly not as good as I thought. Confused about this for sure. Two different people who charge for backtested data show it would have not tripled, but gone up over 10 fold.
Thanks, will check it out. My head is spinning
Yes I did. Missed everything, down 33% and will Never recover as I have been mentally beaten.