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SIGA Technologies, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    New biz rule

    by sigakingone Aug 23, 2014 7:37 PM

    Second guessing the Wilmington Court's decision in applying the law in this case has been a popular board pastime for the past 8 years. Most always guessing the outcome wrong. Been out for the last few years but morbidly curious as to how such a litigation fiasco could have ever taken place. 2 more years will make it a decade.

  • Not a question that can be asked, has already been established by Parsons via expert testimony provided in the case record and his answer to that question is "85% probability of success". In other words, even Rose/SIGA could get it far enough along to get a contract after assistance and funding PIP provided throughout 2006 when Ronald Perelman and MacAndrews & Forbes refused to fund ST-246/SIGA.

  • first question by siga to the supreme court is pip was unable to bring their antrax drug to market because of inefficiencies my their management whose to say they could successfully bring st-245 to get a barda contract

  • "U.S. Government healthcare sources acknowledged that not all patients vaccinated would be immune. For this one you can look at CDC February 21, 2003 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report entitled “Smallpox Vaccination and Adverse Reactions”. Also note the millions (beyond “no-take”) that may also need access to smallpox antiviral because they are contraindicated to the vaccine.

    The contraindications read as follows.

    Smallpox vaccination in the preoutbreak setting is contraindicated for persons who have the following conditions or have a close contact with the following conditions:
    1) History of atopic dermatitis (irrespective of disease severity)
    2) active acute, chronic exofoliative skin conditions that disrupt the epidermis
    3) pregnant women or women who desire to become pregnant in the 28 days after vaccination
    4) persons who are immunocompromised as a result of HIV/AIDS, autoimmune conditions, cancer, radiation treatment, immunosuppressive medications or other immunodeficiencies.

    This would have formed reasonable basis for assuming orders even greater than 5% of U.S. population. Hence multiple models, with multiple assumptions for various markets (U.S. and International). In other words 5% (14-15 million courses) would have been at the very low-end of U.S. needs. In 2006, both companies expected it to be at least this large and likely larger. It is independently verifiable by third party sources that existed before acts of bad faith, it likely forms the basis for models both companies were utilizing in their discussions about LATS and the acquisition, and it appears in the record of the case.
    As such, it is in the record of the case, it is reasonable (both parties referenced or did not object in testimony of experts), and Parsons believed it worthy to use for establishing expectation damages."

  • Government knew what SIGA and PIP knew, there was no reasonable alternative to meet a pressing need (the gaping whole in biodefense protection it was creating for the U.S. population). They had one vaccine/person and new that 5% at a minimum, 5% would not respond and potentially be exposed. That 5% gets you to a need for 14-15 million courses of antiviral treatment. Cidofovir was known to cause kidney failure that could lead to death, not a very viable option, unless you have nothing else. There was a significant need for a better option and ST-246 was only other option even close in 2006. Chimerix wasn't even close in 2009, Parsons points that out from SIGA's own statements.

    Potential need was much greater than 14-15 million courses of treatment because of huge list of contraindications for the smallpox vaccine itself. Millions more would potentially be exposed as a result of not being viable candidates for vaccination (persons with atopic dermatitis, cancer, HIV/AIDS, autoimmune diseases, etc). That, along with possible reorders to replenish supply as it became dated (expired shelf life), and international orders are the reason SIGA and PIP both thought the potential was much greater. These variables explain reasons Baliban and others would have had a wide range of estimates for ST-246 in 2006. And they remain reasons ST-246 could still see more orders than it has thus far received.

  • 5% of those vaccinated for smallpox have no outward visible signs of a response. They have “no-take” to vaccination and are also referred to as nontake. Those nontakes are at significant risk of smallpox infection and, if infected, would need to be treated within a few days of exposure with a smallpox antiviral . Hence the need for a smallpox antiviral and the U.S. government interest in ST-246. ST-246 was then (2006) and is now the most advanced treatment specifically designed to treat smallpox. When Parsons references ST-246 significantly greater effectiveness (“At the time of the breach, ST-246 appears to have been 8,000 times more effective than its closest competing product”), I believe he is referring to Cidofovir (Vistide,® Gilead). Problem is Vistide is known to cause kidney failure with just one or two doses, yet in 2003 CDC document it is referred to as the only antiviral known to have demonstrated effectiveness in animal models of orthopox.

    As such, ST-246 was the only viable option for U.S. government procurement at time of the breach in Dec. 2006. ST-246 had passed first human safety studies in July 2006 and had demonstrated 100% effectiveness in smallpox challenge study, results of which were announced by SIGA on Oct. 18, 2006. Also, Parsons in notes to his opinion states that “since SIGA’s breach, it repeatedly has touted the superiority of ST-246 to alternative pharmaceuticals, even stating its belief in December 2009 that ST-246 had ‘at least a three-year lead compared to any other potential product candidate in regard to non-human primate efficacy testing.”

  • Reply to

    Clarity on why this gets overturned by the SC...

    by csmclemore Aug 12, 2014 12:49 PM

    You and the other clueless Wikipedia lawyers here just don't comprendo do you?
    If we a take 100% of what you just said, and wrote TRUE next to each sentence, Siga still loses the appeal.
    It was up to Siga's EXPERT to refute the testimony of PIP's EXPERT on the issue of resonable projected courses of sales, and the cost per course. Siga's expert(s) didn't even bother to do that. So as a matter of
    fact, PIP's expert testimony was accepted over Siga's on those issues.

    You don't get an extra swing at the pitch five years later in 20-20 hindsight. It's three strikes and you're out. The time to refute expert testimony is at the time of the trial itself, not four years later It's a moot point now.

  • Reply to

    FLIX Hits New All-Time High!

    by evenu2canexcel Aug 22, 2014 2:43 PM

    Now $479.39!

    FLIX is rocketing!

    CURE will too....whenever?

    Could be.

    IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $478.30 enroute to a 10 to 1 or 20 to 1 split, a move to $800 and then a buyout..whenever!

    But without THE CURE if terrorists infect subscribers with smallpox, subscribers and FLIX winners won't be able to enjoy FLIX or their gains.

    FLIX- the greatest company, greatest stock, greatest trader ever!
    But SIGA will be one of the greatest too?
    Be patient, watch & enjoy!

    IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 3) U.S. Government healthcare sources acknowledged that not all patients vaccinated would be immune. For this one you can look at CDC February 21, 2003 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report entitled “Smallpox Vaccination and Adverse Reactions”. Also not the millions (beyond “no-take”) that may also need access to smallpox antiviral because they are contraindicated to the vaccine.

    The contraindications read as follows.

    Smallpox vaccination in the preoutbreak setting is contraindicated for persons who have the following conditions or have a close contact with the following conditions:
    1) History of atopic dermatitis (irrespective of disease severity)
    2) active acute, chronic exofoliative skin conditions that disrupt the epidermis
    3) pregnant women or women who desire to become pregnant in the 28 days after vaccination
    4) persons who are immunocompromised as a result of HIV/AIDS, autoimmune conditions, cancer, radiation treatment, immunosuppressive medications or other immunodeficiencies.

    This would have formed reasonable basis for assuming orders even greater than 5% of U.S. population. Hence multiple models, with multiple assumptions for various markets (U.S. and International). In other words 5% (14-15 million courses) would have been at the very low-end of U.S. needs. In 2006, both companies expected it to be at least this large and likely larger. I suspect the record will support this and that this is the reason Parsons settled on this amount.

    It is independently verifiable by third party sources that existed before acts of bad faith, it likely forms the basis for models both companies were utilizing in there discussions about LATS and the acquisition, and it likely appears clearly laid out as such in the record of the case.

  • You can't follow the bouncing ball very well, can you frwdlook? The 14+ million courses were SPECULATIVE (THEREFORE NO EXPECTATION DAMAGES ALLOWED!). There have only been 15% of the SPECULATATED figure thus far yet Senile Judge Parsons awarded on "Hoped for, SPECULATIVE numbers" that have not come to fruition 8-years later! Sheesh.

  • Reply to

    FLIX Hits New All-Time High!

    by evenu2canexcel Aug 21, 2014 9:56 AM

    Correction: New High is $476.15!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $475.30 on road to 10 to 1 or 20 to 1 split, a quick move to $800, and then a buyout .....whenever!
    60+ million shares today; 50+ million subscribers and growing to billions!

    If just 50% of subscribers bought 1 share in hope of using gains to pay subscription fees,OMG!

    If they bought 10+ shares, OMG!

    If just 50% of the near term potential of 100M subscribers buy 1-10 shares,OMG!

    IMO

    But buy a few SIGA because if terrorists infect subscribers with smallpox, without THE CURE, subscribers won't be able to enjoy FLIX or FLIX gains, no GUV?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Ha! Funny. And great advice. Seriously.

  • Bkarma, For your own mental well being, pretend you never heard of SIGA. If they found a cure ( or vaccine) for Ebola, they'd still find a way to lose money on the deal. Buy something, take a vacation, start a new drug habit.. do anything with that money except invest in SIGA. You will likely thank me later.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • The Delaware Court of Chancery determined, among other things, that PharmAthene, Inc. is entitled to a lump sum damage award in a still unspecified amount, with interest and fees, based on U. S. Government purchases of SIGA's smallpox drug supposedly anticipated in 2006.The total award is likely to be substantial, but it will not be established until after the Delaware Court of Chancery considers certain calculations from experts and the agreement or input of each of SIGA and PharmAthene, Inc

  • Reply to

    Mid 1's will be the "new normal"

    by drod4ball Aug 20, 2014 12:20 PM

    "This is no rooky company. I think it will be taken out buy a major player."

    How ironic that one of the most idiotic statements I've seen on this board, just happens to be made in response to the one holding the previous crown, (and my #1 fan) drod! Can't make this stuff up, lol.

  • Reply to

    Mid 1's will be the "new normal"

    by drod4ball Aug 20, 2014 12:20 PM

    But at what price, $2.00/sh?

SIGA
1.350.00(0.00%)Aug 29 3:59 PMEDT

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