Maybe so. Or..... Maybe Sir John Templeton is still right.....
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
"I understand how shorts don't care for splits..."
Why do shorts not care for splits? Splits typically occur AFTER the share price has increased. I can certainly understand why a short would not like to see the shares of a short increase, but splits? Help me out!
"...holding JNJ since 96' I've had many since which leads to double my dividends."
While a dividend increase is often announced when a company announces a split, the two are not necessarily mutual. Heck, JNJ has raised its dividend annually for 53 consecutive years, but it has "only" split its shares nine times (including significant stock dividends) since 1947.
JNJ has had two splits since the beginning of 1996, both 2:1. Dare I suggest that not only would JNJ's total dollar dividend payout be the same since 1/1/96 had JNJ not split its shares, but its market cap would be in the vicinity of where it is today as well.
Splits are an end and not a means. Again, splits occur AFTER shares have appreciated. Splits may signal that the board is optimistic about the future and they may provide a quick pop as a result of unfounded excitement about the split from retail, but over the long haul, splits have nothing to do with how valuable a company is. If JNJ typically trades with a PE ratio of say 14 - 20, it will do so whether there are 2.77 billion shares outstanding or 5.54 billion shares outstanding.
Shockingly, splits do not excite me. I could care less if I own 500 or 1000 shares. What excites me is when the VALUE of an investment increases and when my dividend income consistently increases.
I understand how shorts don't care for splits, but holding JNJ since 96' I've had many since which leads to double my dividends. Two pick up's, car for the kid, tax bills later, I'm looking forward to the next split. Yes I'm a long and not interested in shorting soon.
"Most of my positions long ago paid off my initial investment in dividends..."
Do you have any positions that pay an annual dividend that exceeds your original cost?
I almost have one: XOM (formerly MOB for me). This year's div payments will be a penny shy of my basis--next year the annual payout will exceed it.
I'll name three. JNJ, which I would recommend for any long term investor. SON I started acquiring about 10 years ago, and until the present downturn, had doubled in value. And five years ago, bought ABT, which spun off ABBV, and together they have increased by about 80%. All three have steadily increased dividends. In today's market, I would be happy to increase my position, but at my age, I have other priorities. My income is sufficient, and I'm building a cash pile to safeguard against health problems and long term care possibilities.
There are a lot of ways to succeed in the market. I've always chosen companies with a long history of increasing dividends, well-covered dividends. And my intention is to hold for a long time. Most of my positions long ago paid off my initial investment in dividends - and most are worth much, much more than my cost basis. But I don't quarrel with those who have a different approach. Bless their hearts, I wish them well.