Sure you will, Kenny...........
Make up a new username and pat yourself on your scrawny old back.
If you trade through somebody like Fidelity or Schwab, you can look at the analysis from pretty much all the major houses and see what they base their forecast on. For example, S&P Capital currently has a 12-month price forecast of $120. They base that on an estimated EPS and a P/E value that is typical for JNJ, plus many other factors. What they can't account for is the likelihood of a global downward trend, or war, or natural disasters, things that drive prices down. Other houses use other variables, and proprietary models, some that can be understood, many that can't. In my opinion, JNJ should not be viewed as a growth stock investment, but as an income stock investment. And an individual investor can find pretty much all the financial information that an analyst can, if he/she is willing to spend the time and dig deeply enough. Companies can not release information in any way other than publicly. You should find 1 or 2 analysts that you're comfortable with, based on how they calculate their forecasts, and factor them into your decision making process. But remember this: It's only a forecast, a calculated prediction - and it can be very wrong, as evidenced by the "Strong Sell - to - Strong Buy" recommendations you can find at any time on a stock like JNJ. Somebody is always wrong.
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Where does the 1 year projection come from if the share price is unsustainable at 109? I'm assuming it's coming from analysts who have more insight into the company's financials than most investors do.That projected value number hasn't changed in a while.
As a former employee of JNJ ( 24 years ) any one in their right mind would just buy, buy, buy and hold, hold, hold. GREAT company that knows how to make $$$.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
JNJ is a very mature company, and its growth has slowed down a lot. I am sure you're familiar with higher growth pharma or bio-tech co's such as ABBV or GILD. Long term, they have a much better chance to increase share holder value, albeit with higher chance of wilder share price swings. Good luck.
That's an interesting trading strategy but what I'm not interested in trading or doing options here on this stock, there are better stocks to trade that offer more return and volatility such as many of those in the commodity sector. What I'm referring to here is comparing whether JNJ or a healthcare ETF would be better for a long term, Warren Buffet like, stable investment where I can put a large chunk of my money for many years without checking it everyday.
JNJ's triple A rating relates to the strength of its finances relative to debt: "The top AAA rating is reserved for those companies with the utmost financial strength and discipline in meeting all obligations." That is absolutely no guarantee of share price behavior. If you'll look at the 5-year or 10-year price charts, you'll see that the price ran up to $109 at an unsustainable rate of increase. The current price is perfectly in line with long term performance. Share price fluctuation in this case reflects the behavior of unrealistic investors, not of the company. It's a buying opportunity for investors with long term goals.
When JNJ is down like now, buying its shares are more rewarding when it goes back above 100 than the ETF you are talking about. Second, you can write covered calls on your shares for extra income. And third, instead of buying the shares out right, you can start by selling short term puts and make money on option premiums. In case you get put those shares, then you buy them and ride them up before finally selling the covered calls.
I posed this question in response to another post- why on earth would anyone buy JNJ when it consistently and substantially underperforms healthcare ETF funds in terms of total return (for example the Vanguard Healthcare Fund)? The only reason to buy individual stocks is to achieve a greater return than the ETF, because the ETF always has a far lower risk than buying an individual company. I am not saying that JNJ is a bad investment but just not as good as the ETF.
Because it may make sense to have a small amount of bonds in addition to stocks for diversification of your portfolio.
Now here is a far more relevant question back to you - why would anyone buy JNJ when it consistently and substantially underperforms healthcare ETF funds in terms of total return (for example the Vanguard Healthcare Fund)? The only reason to buy individual stocks is to garner a greater return than the ETF, because the ETF always has a far lower risk than buying an individual company.