So, you think my low end is high. I am thinking that the HD patient meetings with the FDA in September could be influential.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Right now, my gut tells me that the odds are probably only between 20% and 33%.
Do you think that is low, high, or about right?
But if it did happen, we would probably be looking at an almost instantaneous 6-10 bagger.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well let's see lawyer. Your childish rap on institutions is laughable. You have never dealt with institutions as I have. You have never traded and sold to institutions lawyer. You know no history especially with startups. PV let me clear you are an idiot and lady chatter is a moron. You don't like it . I could care less.
(cont) "These data are highly positive and support the advancement of PBT434 as a first-in-class drug that could change the course of Parkinson's Disease and related movement disorders," said Geoffrey Kempler, Prana's Chairman and CEO. "This would be a major step forward in therapy as existing treatments are focused on symptomatic relief and offer little in the way of halting neurodegenerative decline once it has begun. The drug is progressing through the development process, with the aim of first clinical trials in 2015."
These findings are being presented today at the 17th Annual Congress of Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders in Sydney by Professor Colin Masters, Director of The Mental Health Research Institute at the Florey Institute of Neuroscience, in a plenary presentation, and Associate Professor David Finkelstein, Head of the Parkinson's Disease Laboratory also at the Florey Institute.
"What we have known for some time is that dopamine and iron, together in the brain, form a combustible mix and this drives alpha synuclein aggregation and toxicity," said Associate Professor Finkelstein.
"What we've seen with PBT434 is two beneficial modes of action -- it prevents cell death by inhibiting the interaction between dopamine and iron and it also stops this accumulation of alpha synuclein."
This is the first molecule designed to inhibit the neurotoxic build-up of alpha synuclein in the brain and PBT434 could support the "next generation for PD therapies," Associate Professor Finkelstein also said.
Overall I agree with your summary of expenses if a full Phase III is required before approval application. However, If (and a big IF) the new animal toxicity safety results are extremely positive and then with the 2 year human safety trial (image trial for AD) just completed provides a wealth of data. An excellent safety profile over two years may change Prana's strategy. Prana now would have a data backed safety profile on PBT2 that no other HD trial drug can show. My thought is this may be an opportunity to seek conditional approval for PBT2 in HD in conjunction with a Phase III trial.
Remember as I have told you before and you have seen $5M came in last quarter from someone. This tends to happen when they need the money.
You can likely cross off pre-clinical work as the 2 years of safety data should be enough. You're 12 million annual is about twice what it should be. And your PBT2 Phase 3 price is likely too high as well with HSG group and others coming in to help. So maybe 41M tops needed. Current cash is 35M and that means $6M needed = about the amount of the tax refund this year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Why do you spend so much time calling people names? Do you think your rantings actually influence people or the stock price? Right now very few people - including the institutions you hate having mentioned - think Prana has much going for it. I hope that changes, but you are, indeed, laughable.
My original post got garbled thanks to a keyboard glitch. Here's the summary of my best-case scenario in Australian dollars for the period from now to the end of June 2017:
Keeping the lights turned on: $12 million
Pre-clinical work: $14 million
Phase III trial of PBT2 for Huntington's Disease: $41 million
Total: $67 million
Current cash on hand: $35 million
Amount to raise between now and June 2017: $32 million
Keep in mind that one Australian dollar = $0.73 U.S. dollars at the current exchange rate. The above figures are Australian dollars.
That's OK gy. They say they're college educated.
To be an actual nut takes skill, which is why Ringling Brothers/ Barnum and Bailey run a Nut College
I should emphasize that my estimate of $67 million (Australian) cash consumption is only to get us through the end of June 2017, assuming a Phase III trial for Huntington's takes place. If the trial is successful, more money will of course need to be raised (as copper points out) to actually bring the drug onto the market. But I don't expect Prana to have any problem raising money for that purpose in the event that the trial takes place and is successful. But the fact remains that Prana will have to raise about $32 million by my estimates to accomplish the proposed Phase III.