I got sunshine, in my stomach
Like I just rocked my baby to sleep
I got sunshine in my stomach
But I can't keep me from creeping sleep
Sleep, deep in the deep
Must tell myself
That I'm not here
I'm drowning in a liquid fear
A strong compression
In the cave
Get me out of this cave
If I keep self-control
I'll be safe in my soul
And the childhood belief
Brings a moment's relief
But my cynic soon returns
And the lifeboat burns
My spirit just
The future is coming on
I'm happy, I'm feeling glad
I got sunshine, in a bag
I'm useless, but not for long
The future is coming on
It's coming on
It's coming on
It's coming on
It's coming on
Sorry for your pain. I have felt some pain myself but probably not anything to compare to you. In my experience, the closer I get to a goal the more impatient I become. I hope this is a good sign for all us longs.
Thank you for your comment that I am pumping and pimping this stock. With such positive comments from board leaders like yourself on my pumping/pimping optimism, I hope to attain many "thumbs up."
I'm ready to see this reach its full potential. IMO the take out price is approx. 2 b. I have been in and out of this stock for several years and I am patient but I'm not Job.
Yep, I did post about the strange trades Friday,
After hours the was a single trade for 175K + shares and today it has been removed from the NAZ.
This Equity is under The spell of a Large Player and has been for 2 plus years.
That will change you only a ticket to ride.
AT 3:59 there was approx. 300,000 shares traded and now showing 780,000. Did that happen in one minute or after hours? Also noticed price up ah now gone. Maybe I was dreaming? Left shortly after bell and now looking at it, I can't figure it out,
You and the Wulf are leaving a factor out with your estimates of PPS
( IF ) DVAX makes it to the VRBPAC with the same FDA sentiment as last time the # of shares to go around
Will play a part and it won't cause a lowering of the BID*
My Post is not a reference to the Dec 20th date
It is the close of the 4thQ 014 and the start of Q1 015 for investment Opertunities pitched by
You yourself have Pumped / Pimped a 40/50% run on your money for 015
What investment group would not like that kind of return on their money for 015
The longer they wait the more they shave on the return.
dnb2020 - I too was in DVAX the day of the "Daum Crash". It has been a long slow drought. BUT, we are almost to the finish line. I agree with ctic, you don't have to hold through the next safety vote. Why not just leave some money in for the inevitable run up. I think a 40 or 50% run up over the next several months is possible. There are not a lot of good speculative biotechs that are going to give you that kind of return over the next few months. Just seems like a good risk/reward scenerio to me. But I respect your opinion and wish you the best in what ever you decide.
tsk tsk, there you go again Debbie Downer. Two thumbs down to you and more to follow.
Forgetting DSMB, might "many thumbs up" Isaac be forgetting that FDA can at any time place a CLINICAL HOLD on any drug candidate? As a matter of fact, didn't that happen to a compound called Heplisav in a PIII trial a number of years ago? Or am I just a filthy lying shortie? Ah well, as the votes come in the "thumbs down" will point to the latter.
Hilarious, you're already one thumbs down for a well thought out, honest, and unbiased opinion. I ABSOLUTELY agree. I will pare shares substantially right in front of VRBPAC, can always buy back after if warranted. Were there to be another negative vote, downside is freaking catastrophic (60-80% IMO) as the specter of Heplisav never approved takes a step toward reality. Whereas upside on a positive vote is likely far less.
Amazing the power of one pseudo-bureaucrat, Robert Daum. Wonder if people he knows profit enormously trading certain biotechs.
In the meantime I have a come up with a plan to methodically trade the stock for profits that will add up considerably at the same time gradually paring back on shares. Lemme know if you want details.
OMG, trading the stock!!! Death knell, a hailstorm of thumbs down about to strike. Followed by a death blow post from board leader jdoob.
THE MAIN POINT IS THAT the DVAX short-sellers' hope of a trial-discontinuation decision is no longer since DSMB's RECOMMENDATION TO CONTINUE THE TRIAL is a SURE THING FOR THE NEXT TWO DSMB REPORTS.
Let's see whether the shorts will now RUSH TO COVER or wait until Jan 2015 to do so (!!).
Dec 20 was a highly important date since it represents the point by which the vast majority of adverse events related to Heplisav would have occurred. Since NO MAJOR ADVERSE EVENT has been reported, it's good news.
It is also the point (8 weeks from final immunization) when the Heplisav group reached the 90% immunogenicity mark in past trials. After this point, the rise in immunogenicity is very very slow -- reaching a peak of 95%. As a result, very few adverse events, if any, are expected from now until the trial end.
As for the future DSMB reports, some posters, like you, claim they would prefer to wait until the reports are made public. That's fine as long these posters are honest. However, readers should evaluate their honesty from the other posts of these posters. For if they have been consistently negative, I would doubt their intentions (perhaps they are even buying as they post negatively).
An observation period of 52 weeks is a FDA requirement for this vaccine safety trial,, but the question shareholders should ask is what is the probability of a major adverse event in the Heplisav group beyond the period of 12 weeks from the initial immunization (8 weeks from final immunization).
Some highly risk-averse DVAX investors would probably wait until the end of the trial, or at least until after the next DSMB report, but they will likely miss the expected huge rise of DVAX.
In fact, it appears that the "BIG INVESTORS" have already begun ACCUMULATING DVAX (e.g., Cowen). They certainly have the knowledge to estimate the expected probabilities.
and this is precisely the reason why your DEC 20 date has no validity. Once everyone has been immunized, there is no safety issue that requires trial modification. You can write the press release already, but what is the balance of safety events between the treatment groups? You will find the answer to that question, much later. Thank you for clarifying that your important 20 DEC date is of no consequence and that it offers no value change for this stock.
Jack: you are mistaken, if 2 others thought the database was sufficient and a postapproval study was needed (which was the FDA perspective in their briefing book), they would have voted yes to the question. This issue, will VRBPAC be satisfied, is the fundamental issue for this stock. FDA may be satisfied with the new trial but will VRBPAC be? Last time FDA was satisfied but VRBPAC was not, and the company was seriously hurt.