Why would some investor or investors pay $24 for Dynavax a share in excess of $1 million purchase? I'm missing some big after hour news event? Searching Google News!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The trial study will be completed by October, 2015. After that data will be submitted to FDA for review and approval.
Today, DVAX closed at 22.43 and DEPO at 22.41. On Oct 23 (5 months ago), DVAX was at 15.30 while DEPO was at 15.22. During the last 5 months, each of the two stocks gained about 47% although they are entirely different. While DVAX is about to release results from its huge safety trial of Heplisav, which will make CLEAR that a full FDA APPROVAL of Heplisav is inevitable (since the FDA Advisory Committee already approved Heplisav's efficacy by a vote of 13-to-1), DEPO has no real catalysts because its mild revs will come from old low-rev drugs that it acquired from companies that needed cash.
Still, DVAX and DEPO have behaved remarkably similarly over the last six months in spite of their huge difference. This is so incredible that the only reasonable conclusion is that the large manipulators of these stocks HAVE NO IDEA HOW CLOSE HEPLISAV IS TO AN ASSURED FULL FDA APPROVAL.
And that may be a good thing because on May 4 (in about a month), ALL HEPLISAV SUBJECTS IN THE CURRENT TRIAL WILL HAVE PASSED THEIR WEEK 32 (~8 MONTHS) FROM THEIR INITIAL VACCINATION, WHICH IS THE TIME AFTER WHICH THE IMMUNOGENICITY BEGINS TO NOTICEABLY DECLINE (slightly) AND AS A RESULT, ADVERSE EVENTS ARE PROBABLY NOT EVEN POSSIBLE (!!).
So a NICE SURPRISE IS THE OFFING. Also remember that the 3rd (final) DSMB review is coming in early JULY.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
All study visits will be completed by October, 2015. http://investors.dynavax.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=899071
Institutional investors (i.e. the "smart" money) own 75 percent of DVAX. Conversely, Tutes own 20 percent of JUNO. From day one, Juno was known as a cancer immunotherapy company, and in about a year has attained a 5 billion plus market cap on the backs of retail investors, with no product past pre-clinical or Phase 1 development. JUNO's technology/product has not only patent problems, but it takes SAEs to a whole new level (i.e., if the cancer doesn't kill you our product will). DVAX has Heplisav in Phase III (confirmatory) trial, with a likelihood of approval in the next 18 months. The Tutes have taken a huge position because they know DVAX is also a cancer immunotherapy company, with a safe, well-tolerated and effective treatment (if it hits endpoints). There's no sign that SD-101 is potentially fatal, unlike JUNO's product. There's also no sign that retail investors understand that the JUNO market cap rests on a presumption that JUNO will execute perfectly, which--as we all know--rarely (if ever) happens.
On the YO-YO-like behavior of DVAX.
The recent YO-TO-like behavior of DVAX, intraday, indicates that the MMs are badly in NEED OF DVAX SHARES. They clearly like to buy shares at a low price -- lower than the price they sold them -- but when buy orders are placed, they quickly significantly raise the price even when the BUY order is for less than 300 shares.
The result is a clear YO-YO-like pattern, which is likely to remain for a long while -- probably until the 3rd (final) DSMB in early July.
Still, all DVAX shareholders have to remember is that DVAX was trading ABOVE $40 before the meeting of the FDA Advisory Committee, which approved Heplisav's efficacy by a vote of 13-to-1. And now that most of the uncertainty has vanished because of the approval of efficacy and because Eddie Gray told the whole world that Heplisav is inherently safer than other vaccines. In fact, since Eddie Gray's boasting about Heplisav's SAFETY ADVANTAGE came while the current safety trial was still ongoing (albeit after the 2nd DSMB and after all Heplisav subjects passed their week 21), the LOGICAL CONCLUSION is that he HAD GOOD REASONS TO BOAST ABOUT HEPLISAV's SAFETY.
HANG ON !!!
Obviously someone on this board keeps spewing numbers that are pulled out of his #$%$ $18.16 is a hard floor. Though I don't think it will break $18.83 now EVEN IF they attempt to drive it down any further. Appears the sellers have about finished and the parasites are leaving. Appears we are about to resume the ascent.
THE 1st QUARTER IS ENDING. The question is whether the large FUNDS will try TO INCREASE OWNERSHIP IN DVAX for the purpose of beautifying (window dressing) their portfolios with a stock with a likely huge increase in value.
I think the company used to say they could do this on their own, but I have not heard Eddy say anything about this topic since he arrived. But I think he has bigger issues to deal with for the time being.
CTIC: 'Okay, Houston, we've had a problem here.'
GREY: 'This is GREY. Say again please.'
CTIC: 'Houston, we've had a problem. We've had a main B bus undervolt.'
GREY: 'All clear,assume your position.'
celgene up two days in a row ! and today cramer says tech and biotech's are back ! go figure !
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"Given that the number of short shares in DVAX is inordinately high and that DVAX traded ABOVE $40 before the FDA's panel meeting, the BEARS OUGHT TO KNOW THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DOUBT ABOUT A FULL FDA APPROVAL OF DVAX's LEAD PRODUCT, HEPLISAV."
In other words, COVERING SHORT POSITIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT as we approach the day of the trial-results release. The fact that DVAX was trading above $40 before the meeting of the FDA's Advisory Committee., when there was much more uncertainty about approval, is a CLEAR INDICATION WHAT WE CAN EXPECT WHEN THE SHORTS RUSH TO COVER.