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SeaDrill Limited Message Board

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  • ...with oil recovering to $60-70. That is 5x times today level! The unique opportunity for long term 'Buffet-style' strategic play is here. Place your bet and forget about it. Timing the market in days, weeks, or even months is pure speculation.

  • You jacka$$ shorts who keep spreading the rumor that there will be a dilution of SDRL stock ... why does SDRL need to dilute? All they need to do is for credit purposes (to protect their credit rating), restructure some of their debt to push it out so it is due later (perhaps at a higher interest rate). With JF owning so many shares of SDRL, why do you continue to say he will screw longs and dilute the shares? He would be screwing himself BIG. Stop your lying.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • What all of you are missing is that drilling is a prediction of future supply. You drill now and produce later. So with this massive drop in drilling, you will later see a supply deficit. OPEC can meet some of the supply. But no mater what, when the supply drops the price goes up. Deep-water drilling produces MORE oil per well. So the shale producers can fill some of the gap, but Big Oil need oil in quantities that only can come for off-shore supplies. That is why there is still drilling going on. SDRL has not stopped drilling, they have just reduced what they charge. So when the supply dries up and the price increases, so will the day rates for those rigs. All they have to do is survive until that happens. And no logical person thinks prices will stay down forever.

    SDRL has a plan and they started to execute it this week. Keep watching. This will be something that they write papers about. There is a master plan here. We are only on step one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Crude is now over $49, and SDRL is dirt cheap. If there's a good outcome on Thursday this stock will rocket. If not it doesn't have too far to fall. The upside outweighs the downside. I'm going to be bullish and say I expect good results and perhaps a surprise. It's a gamble. This is the stock market, where people get rich taking risks. Others who don't (and choose to remain on the sidelines criricising others) remain worms their whole life. Weight it up yourself. Friday could be $4.50-5. Either that or the worms on this board will enjoy telling people like me that we were wrong. Think of this though, the same critics, can never be right, because they didn't actually risk a cent. Listen to your own instincts as a trader, not the fools on this board who want to shoot you down. SDRL IS A STRONG BUY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • this stock was 40 $ then $1.60 and now is going back to $8-9

  • Looks like MMs, hedge funds, shorts and market manipulators shorted like crazy to keep PPS down last 3 days. You could see the shorting program as it tried to knock down price each time it picked up!

    Look at the oil PPS. It will be over 50 by the summer or earlier. SDRL has got a stay of execution until end of this year even then it has significant cash to work with until next year. Most of shorts are assuming that BK is inevitable. So, oil price can not go up from 46 to over 50 and then 60. I am sure that's what they said when oil price dropped from 140 to 10 and then to 60 that it can not go any lower. It went all the way down to 25. Sam psychology works in reverse. OPEC in shambles and can not invest more to increase production. Saudi's in the hole for 100B a year in deficit spending. It can keep up.

    SDRL earnings in 5/26 will show profit and for the year as well. Things don't look bleak until end of next year. By then oil Price would have rebounded well above 60 and more contracts should come and contracts will be extended.

    Get ready for massive squeeze next week! Same numbers don't always come up in roulette!

    GLTA in stock casino!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short squeeze is very temporary.

    by johnandtai Mar 4, 2016 12:09 PM

    This has nothing to do with the price of oil right now. It has everything to do with Fredrickson doing what he has to to prop up his company. In addition to the $500MM he got yesterday, he has a couple billion laying around if he needs it. And he can leverage that into many times that amount. Hear your phone ringing yet? It is your broker. He said it is time to cover...or else.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Short squeeze has nothing to do with fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    own 64 000 SDRL under $ 1.67

    by ivodirect Feb 28, 2016 10:51 AM

    and kids this is why you should not take L S D......it makes you have delusions of grandeur.

  • u better buy and get long ..once in a life time opportunity

  • Drastic Cap-ex numbers actually back him. Its not that people aren't drilling, just that drilling is way down.

    I think the bigger issue is that deep water drilling is the expensive drilling that no one does when oil is cheap. I think he may have a good point.

  • It was a great week for this company. And it will get better. If you are short, read up and learn. You are being targeted.

    What we saw happen yesterday was the result of the Funds wanting to get into the stock. The management knows they may have to sell more equity in the company. The people who usually buy that equity are the Institutional Investors and Funds. Most of them have restriction about buying stocks too low . So there was a concerted effort to get the price above $5. If you don't think so just look at the chart. As soon as the price was comfortably above $5, the volume dropped and the price settled. Then the shorts jumped in and tried to bring it back down. As soon as they did, and the price dropped too far, the buyer jumped back in and pushed it back up. It will continue if it drops below $5 again. They have set up a trap and are backing it up with cash. And they have lots of cash.

    The shorts are trying to scare people out of their shares. It won't work. When you have a buyer with deep pockets they can sit back, let the shorts do their dirty work and push the price down, and then the buyer jumps back in. They get their shares cheaper due to the shorts killing the price and the shorts get cooked again...and again...and again.

    As for the possibility selling of additional equity, this is no big deal. A week ago to raise a billion dollars they would have to had sold about 575MM shares. But at the end of the day Friday that number dropped to 170MM shares. Can you see why it was in their best interest to spend cash to buy shares and push the price up? And this is even if they have to sell equity. With the price up, the bonds are more valuable. And when investors know they can hold the bonds safely (because anyone with knowledge knows that they will support the stock with their cash), they will be more inclined to do so.

    My guess is that they will get the price back up to the $10-12 range and let it trade there for a while.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HUGE INSTITUTIONAL BUYING !!!!!!!!!

    by cpasific Mar 7, 2016 3:35 PM

    This is not a dog, this is a sleeping giant.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Debt for equity exchange agreed at 2:56 AM

    by levonchiko May 18, 2016 8:44 AM

    $6.72 per share conversion price. If bond holders are getting $6.72 conversion price the current $3.72 per share price is a steal.

  • Reply to

    TIMBURRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by zsvzxv Mar 4, 2016 2:12 PM

    All the smart rats already jumped ship. The dummies are still holding on!!!

  • Anyway this is purely for academic interest. [THIS IS JUST FOR FUN, OKAY!] But if you look at the stock prices the last time WTI was this high, oil stocks were approximately 30% higher than they are right now. Interested? Read on...

    Long story short, could we extrapolate from these figures and project backwards from the date 12-09-2015, and make a guess at what prices the stocks could rise to (going forwards from now, assuming that oil continues to rise)? Okay this can only be approximate taking the figure (in December) closest to the current WTI value in fact I chose the lower value (closest to the current value, rather than the current value on the previous trading day) for a more conservative estimate.

    WTI was $37.65 on 12/09/15, SDRL closed at $5.43 that day (3.95 now). ATW closed at $13.95 (9.19 now). ORIG closed at $1.58 (currently 1.13). PACD closed at $1 (now 0.62).

    The last time that WTI oil was over $45 was on 11/05/15. SDRL closed at $6.80 that day.

    Now the last time that WTI oil was over $50 was on 07/21/2015. SDRL closed at $9.06 that day.

    The last time that SDRL was over $10 was on 07/14/2015, WTI oil $53.04 was and SDRL closed at $10.12.

    So can we make rough guesstimate here that if WTI was around $53, then SDRL would be worth around $10?

  • If oil stays low SDRL will still get no new business and the company may go under. Just refinancing debt only extends the terminal patient.

  • The other thing you are missing is the supply side damage which is happening during the downturn.

    -Marginal wells account for ~20% of U.S. production and are being capped as the cost of running them is not sustainable at these prices.
    -Capital resources are being destroyed in the sector so CAPEX will be tougher going forward which will slow the ramp ups on the other side of this down turn.
    -Look at proved resources in the States as compared to burn rate: the math does not indicate a long term supply side margin.
    -Fast drilled and fast exhausted is the byword for the 'new' in the ground resources while old fields are still in inexorable decline: we are going to see a supply side crisis in time and deep water will be needed.

    I think taken in whole there the downturn is causing damage which will slow production ramp up as demand rises.
    Volatility is the byword here- prices are going to be all over the map- don't take this low as any more 'real' than the high was in '07
    What is certain (to my mind) is that prices in the long term are going up and will shock the market with the heights they reach before we have adopted viable alternatives.

  • Fredriksen has about $5.7 billion in cash and other assets before the latest deal, according to Bloomberg estimates, giving him the resources to participate in the restructuring of Seadrill,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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