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Myriad Genetics Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Little to add

    by jacosa May 27, 2015 11:46 AM

    lol. really? dont go to dtc while your test is being laughed at by scientists???????? just sell to doctors??????

    omg. you are suggesting that maybe the re-think the validity of myrisk now. oopsy!

  • To help shorts, this had to run before Myriad's podium presentation on myRisk at ASCO, which figures to address the issue raised...well, for ONE panel test, anyway.

    Researchers oppose unvalidated gene panel tests for cancer links
    Reuters By Julie Steenhuysen
    3 hours ago
    
    By Julie Steenhuysen

    CHICAGO (Reuters) - A group of international researchers is making the case that genetic tests that look for multiple hereditary genes suspected of being linked to breast cancer should not be offered until they are proven to be valid and useful in clinical practice.

    Such tests, made by several companies including Myriad Genetics Inc, Ambry Genetics, Invitae and Illumina Inc, cover up to 100 inherited cancer genes, including more than 20 for breast cancer...
    --------------------
    And for you-know-who: staying clear of shi^H^H^Hstuff like this is part of why you don't go DTC until you have your professional ducks in a row.

  • Reply to

    Things to anticipate

    by jacosa May 25, 2015 1:05 PM

    there is no issue of press coverage on these issues. they are not going to get press. period. none of it rises above what is already out there and was ignored.

  • The podium presentation on myChoice HRD at ASCO suggests that in the recent past Myriad management anticipated a US launch around now. Like Prolaris, this test requires a sample of tumor tissue, so the market is pretty well defined. What is fairly likely to get press coverage is that the HRD signal is dramatically not specific to breast cancer. I don't know what to make of the near-absence of myChoice from the web site.

    There will also be a podium presentation on myRisk. ASCO is a high impact meeting, so there should be an acceleration of prescribing in the aftermath. This is part of the reason integration of the new testing machinery into the Myriad LIMS was time-critical.

    And of course, the decision that ultimately controls Medicare coverage of Prolaris is due in the next month. Rejection is pretty much inconceivable, but the language around what kinds of cancers the test is approvable for will be important (I expect the guidance to be very conservative to begin with. The boundary to look for is between involvement of both lobes of the prostate and involvement of the seminal vesicles also. If they specify in terms of Gleason score, the boundary to look for is between 3 and 4. Since part of the case for Prolaris is that Gleason Score is unreliable, limiting prescribing based on that number would be a negative.) Firmness of language is also significant. Gentler language permits independent investigation of the test's value in near-boundary disease.

  • Reply to

    brutal containment

    by netprophecy2 May 21, 2015 10:21 PM

    i dont believe that. if anything it is people who bought at 32-32 taking profit at resistance lines. mygn is trading down from all resistance points so it is a smart play. they have no news to announce to make the stock advance. they have not had any for a while. it is all hot air at this point and downward revisions of earnings. someday they may recover growth from the mythical markets they have been describing for years but have not developed. like "europe". they do not know where asia is.

  • Reply to

    brutal containment

    by netprophecy2 May 21, 2015 10:21 PM

    Individuals who bought from shorts at $28 taking profit at $34 and this makes resistance as long as shorts not covering.

  • keeps trying to get through mild resistance but cannot. nice prostate results and no benefit. you might think that a company that just announced a radical change of how prostate cancer is treated - affecting middle age plus men - the most monied demographic in the world, might have made a headline on the news. but the crack team of buffoons in the myriad PR and marketing departments managed to utterly bury the story, much to the thrill of the shorts. seriously how are these people employed still?

  • Reply to

    TRANSFORMATION of shorts into longs to commence!!!

    by newtwo99 May 14, 2015 6:51 PM

    sorry. no. myriad's pr capabilities rival that of toddler. the stock only dropped a little on the news. which is good for myriad. the marketing chief and the PR people - unless someone is ordering them to suck at their jobs - should be fired. fired. buh-bye. you suck at what you do. fired.

    seriously. this should be the last straw unless the news nationally leads with prostate cancer treatment revolutionized with new test this afternoon or tomorrow morning. maybe if brad pitt has a vonshungel cut off and mentions myriad in a tattoo across his face, maybe, just maybe, someone at myriad will notice and do something about it other than say, no comment.

    let's see some heads roll.

  • Myriad Showcases Its Pioneering Research at the 2015 ASCO Annual Meeting
    19 Presentations Will Highlight Myriad's Expanding Portfolio of Transformative Diagnostic Tests
    GlobeNewswire Myriad Genetics, Inc. May 13, 2015 5:05 PM

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM

    Such things have happened. But usually in a 'corner' situation. The supply and demand situation would still tend to be good for TROU (think of the purest case: company sells new stock to the shorts in a negotiated secondary. That's a 50% capital infusion effectively without dilution.) In a less pure case, the money ends up in the hands of Myriad bulls. They'd be inclined to replenish depleted positions, just not as quickly as shorts with the market running against them.

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM

    Is it possible, that "shorts" will cover directly negotiating price to cover of loaned shares with major holders/loaners for direct transaction, so retail boys will not see any short squeeze?

  • Reply to

    technical move tomorrow is key

    by netprophecy2 May 12, 2015 4:39 PM

    yep. failed to break out. more likely down than up. maybe good news on prolaris. maybe they fire the marketing department.

  • Reply to

    technical move tomorrow is key

    by netprophecy2 May 12, 2015 4:39 PM

    same small volume, high percentage moves down, frustrating.

  • right at resistance. typically, mygn would sell off. will be watching to see if this is a new era for mygn.

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM

    One more piece of the story: my personal proxy for health care stocks at large is the closed-end fund HQL (which has recently changed its name, but kept the symbol)(top 3 holdings Celgene, Gilead and Vertex). If you look at a 5-year chart, it has had a magnificent run, but presently looks kinda toppy. Holders of a very large hedge with something resembling HQL on the long side and Myriad on the short side might easily be thinking about unwinding even if Myriad didn't look as good as it does going forward.

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM

    Naked shorting (the bad name is stock watering) is, of course, against the law. It happens, but this would be too visible. In any event, nominal float + short interest comes close enough to apparent float to rule out a large rate of naked shorting. Anyway, borrowing stock in a swap against treasuries is inexpensive enough (I'm weak on nomenclature of derivatives; I'd call it a double repo if left to my own devices, but it's probably a term swap or some such. A puts up bonds, B puts up stock, each takes ownership of what the other puts up. There are fees paid depending on bond interest vs dividend and other considerations. Collateral is put up if the deal goes too out of balance. The deal expires on date X and needs to be re-done then)

    Most likely, the shorts on Myriad are mostly part of "unrelated hedges" ('unrelated' is a term of art here; it just means not the same company) Presuming that the long side of the hedge was biomedical it has probably done well enough to make the total positions profitable, but being short a company with big question marks ahead of it is very different from being short one with a new principal product hitting its stride and bright prospects ahead. If you concede market-matching performance for Myriad going forward, it is too expensive to keep it on the short side of a hedge (and its service rather than product nature makes it a poor representative of the industry you want a weak member of). I am not aware of any tax reason to short "against the box" for longer than a quarter.

    Even li'l ol' I have partially liquidated a hedge to get out when one side turned bad (sold part of the stock covered by calls to buy back the in=the-money calls).Sometimes you just have to re-mobilize the dead money in a too-hedged position.

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM

    Thanks, jacosa.
    on http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui if you set 3 years period and "volume by price" overlay, we can see that
    there is spike of trades in the range 24.3 and 27.8, which most possibly coursed by heavy short trades...
    Though there were exchanges at other prices, smaller volumes.
    Could shorts holding naked shorts, or covered long holdings for tax purposes? Then shorts are not so desperate...

  • Reply to

    A blast from the past

    by jacosa May 11, 2015 2:50 AM

    thank you jacosa for your many splendid contributions. your deep knowledge is amazing. its only a pitty so few follow this board. but that is another good reason to be bullish mygn. once product transition is completed we will trade again at 8 times sales, based on growth and sky high gross margin. we will no longer be single product company but a diversified one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I was looking at old posts to see if I ever "patted myself on the back" over Intermune. I guess I sorta did, but not in an aggressive way. Basically, I said that I only recommend "sure things" to friends, and that Myriad is as sure a thing as Intermune once was. And the only date I ever gave for when the short position would become untenable was August, based partly on debottlenecking of myRisk and partly on commercial arrival of Prolaris. I shouldn't and don't feel the least bit embarrassed that the stock price hasn't made a big + move yet, although I'm a bit embarrassed by having mistaken a volume change (that reduced days-to-cover) for actual covering. Prolaris pricing is delayed 2-6 weeks, so there is a brief reprieve, no more. But I also found a bit of history compiled by into_something_good.

    "The numbers tell the story: 6/14/13, at the time of the Supreme Court decision, the shorts were only 5.75M with 1.26 days to cover. The number hit 35.5M 12/31/13 with 13.78 days to cover. The CS report drove the number to 37.8M on 1/15/14. The peak wasn't reached until 3/31/14 at 39.9M, days before the CMS surprise that drove the stock to the 52 week high of 42.50. On 2/14, the number was 38M, but the price didn't top 35 until 2/18, which indicates that most shorts are now at least $4/share underwater."

    Looking at prices and volumes around those dates, my estimate of an average short sale price around $28 looks generous. I'll keep referring to it, but $24 looks more plausible. Anyway, the shorts are feeling a hot boardwalk under their feet already, and it's hard to see them NOT jumping in response to a full quarter of as-expected myRisk sales and a major new product starting to show its worth. Since I'm not aware of anyone projecting meaningful earnings from either Vectra or the cdx business, those can't generate negative surprises.

  • Reply to

    Shorts probably get an extension

    by jacosa May 8, 2015 12:42 PM

    Of course, above, I mean if you insist on holding your MYGN shares. You have already patted yourself on the back for your ITMN success. Well, this is no ITMN. And I can't wait to prove you wrong on MYGN and fade you dollar for dollar. I will be the one collecting every dollar you lose on MYGN.

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