Fair enough. Their P/S ratio is in line with the industry and gross margins did go down a little.
However the have pretty good size growth runway, approved products, and trials underway. I can't image their not being a target ripe for acquisition.
I think a reasonable pps would be for it to trade in the 22-25 range.
Cos they bought much of the growth. If you look at the 2015 guidance it is some 10% organic growth in sales over last few quarters, but costs higher and maybe gross margin bit lower, too. CEO is good talker and Board has some clout, so market cap already high? ... can it be more than a 5xsales business...
....yet the price per share languishes around the same range.
Although management is doing a good job with AtriCure, they hardly are maximizing shareholder value. Time to explore other options.
It's hard to say, but there are a few possible explanations:
- the stock isn't cheap anymore and risk/reward not as favorable; the upside is probably $30 in a buyout, but a big market selloff (definitely possible) or a disappointing quarter could send this illiquid stock back to the low teens - you could see some quant shorts in this just based on valuation
- we are several years out from the "hockey stick" growth that should result from a successful DEEP trial
- some investors question whether the company can ever successfully convert physicians who get paid well to do catheter ablations and have little incentive (other than patient benefit) to refer a patient to a cardiac surgeon
- investors looking to short small cap or health care stocks as a group may include this in a basket
- someone with more insight than us is taking an aggressive position against it
Sorry, I don't have a good answer. I am encouraged that there has been very little insider selling as the stock has appreciated. Hopefully, that remains the case and management continues to execute on their long term vision. I do believe this company could have $1 billion+ of revenues in 6 to 7 years if the trials are successful, but that's pie in the sky at this point. We've had a good run, so it's not silly to take a few profits off the table. Best of luck to you.
Since I respected your candor to my post, and it appears you have a working knowledge of Atricure, I would like to get your opinion on something that has me baffled. Do you have any explanation for why the Short Interest in ATRC has risen from well under one million outstanding shares to well over two million throughout 2014, and rapidly has increased in the 4th quarter? Do you believe that there is a direct correlation to the 4.25 million shares sold in the capital expansion offering in Feb. of 2014? Or do you have other rational opinions for this short interest? I would truly appreciate your thoughts! Thanks!
You're Right to tell me to take it easy, and perhaps I was a little hasty with my response. So Thank you for pointing that out to me BBRUTUS. I didn't see the post on the FDA website, and since I haven't seen any 8-K disclosure, I assumed that like his inability to name the Officers of the company, he knowledge on this subject was suspect at best.
So I apologize to Stockmizer for stating it wasn't true, but most of your other comments held no merit and in the case of names was just incorrect.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Take it easy, Wes. He's right. Recall was posted on FDA website Dec 30th and was for 19,190 CryoICE probes because there was an issue in packaging that may have compromised sterility. I'm only guessing that they haven't put out an 8-K because the company deems it immaterial. Might be as simple as shipping the items back, sterilizing them and re-packaging, but that's only a guess. Until I learn otherwise, I'll give mgmt the benefit of the doubt here because they are doing a lot right in my view since Carrel came on board. He certainly gave the company a shot in the arm and the market is gradually rewarding us with a higher multiple. You could certainly justify a price around $30 if someone wanted to buy the company today, but a lot more value can be created here through continued organic growth and progression of the various trials.
Hey Stockmizer2012, First off the CEO of the company is Mike Carrel (not Carol) and the CFO is Andy Wade (not Lux). Now as to this supposed recall, does your "Contact" in Operations (I suppose his name is John Doe) have any PUBLIC prove of this? Just like all your "facts" in this message, it just isn't true!
Take your short selling self to another message board, as Atricure investors no better than to believe your message board spamming!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Hey, why haven't we heard about Cryo disposables being recalled? Roughly 400 to 500 devices are being returned and reprocessed. How will this effect the bottom line? Mike Carol & Andy Lux need to come clean with investors. My contacts in Operations management tell me that there is likely more to come.