A tidbit from Monty Fool.....n phase 1 trials of Hodgkin lymphoma patients, for example, Opdivo produced an overall response rate of 87%, which was better than Keytruda's 66% response rate. But 21% of the patients who got Keytruda had a complete response, better than Opdivo's 17%. It's impossible to guess from that data which drug is going to look better in larger late-stage trials, let alone which drug doctors will eventually favor.
And even the current trials testing the drugs as monotherapies aren't likely to give a full picture of their long-term potential, because the drugs will eventually be used as combination treatments with other cancer drugs. That'll open up even more indications, and the drugs won't necessarily be competing with each other.
Both companies have already set up some partnerships to test combinations with drugs from other companies, and I expect more will follow. If you want to try to predict a long-term winner, keep track of the number of drug-combination trials the companies run, as it'll give some indication of the potential addressable market for the drugs.
It's a penny stock, so who knows? Guess if we could all look behind the curtain it might turn out to be nothing but smoke and mirrors. I am positive that no one posting here knows for sure. Merck evidently liked what they saw, but how many potential drugs does big pharma invest in that turn out to be losers? Pretty big number I'd imagine. Still, it does have potential, so you're guess is as good as anyone's.
Oncs will be commencing multiple unblinded trials against several forms of cancer pretty soon. This company definitely has the potential to get a lot of attention this year.