They have a $70 million loan provision in place. $50 million plus $20 million more if sales targets reached.
Agreed. Dr. D is very tight lipped about financing. I understand he wants to keep his options open depending on sales, but it would have been nice to state that they prefer to use the $70 million financing option they have in place instead of equity financing. A clearer picture of the finances going forward would have helped.
there is not yet enough concrete sales history in order for accurate sales guidance, we need at least another 2-3 qtrs in order to give accurate/appropriate guidance. jmo
That is what is so frustrating - the CEO laughs off the question of why the guidance changed from cash flow positive by the "middle of the year" to "later this year", suggesting that it isn't really a change. Even if you accept the premise that the middle of the year could include August or September, it is clear that they don't expect to have a cash flow positive month until Q4. In the grand scheme of things, a few months difference is not that material, but when you are running out of cash, it is a different story. The CEO's cavalier and non-commital statements breed uncertainty and give the shorts the window they need to take the stock down.
That's the problem - there was a lot of data "insinuating" what the revenue level might be, but the guy wouldn't put a stake in the ground and give guidance for Q2 or the rest of the year. Stating that they will be "cash flow positive later this year" implies they have a monthly revenue number in mind that they could achieve in the late Q3 or Q4 time frame. If they had $50M of cash on hand, the soft Q1 and the insinuation of an explosive Q2 would have been fine, but his wishy-washy guidance revenue guidance and his non-committal statements on where they are going to get the capital they need or how much they will need didn't provide any comfort.
The reality is they will probably need less than $10M to bridge them to a comfortable cash flow position - even at the 15% haircut, that is 1M shares - less than 3% dilution. If he would have said "our priority is to raise the necessary capital through debt or a pipeline collaboration, but if we use the ATM, we will not sell more than 2M shares", would it have sold off 15%? If they had enough cash, the OMS721 progress alone is enough to support the current market cap, but his non-committal statements on revenue and cash gave no confidence. By early next year you will have a profitable company with a blockbuster waiting for accelerated approval and the stock is trading at 50% below where they sold shares in Jan 2015 - that is bad management.
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The statement ($45 - $50 MM run rate) insinuates that the March revenue number was $3.75 million to $4.1 million. Sure, Q1 is tough in healthcare because of high deductible health care plans. Also, the new sales team could not have had all of the kinks worked out. But, the bottom line is Dr. D knew this was an important quarter and the numbers were not that great. Thus the "morse code". If you are long you have to hope for some good news in the next month or so and a strong Q2 ($12 million plus).
My best friend is an Ophthalmologist. For 30 years from early January until near the end of January he got continuation education in Hawaii with his friends and family. This concept that the DR's are doing little elective surgery during this time frame is true. This Co is going through the learning phase of understanding seasonality of their product. This will repeat itself every year. The 30% new salesforce starting this January has some learning curve too. If you listen to the commentary it appears the projections for sales going forward are already being exceeded in the last 2 months.
I must say reading the release is light solving a murder mystery. March was almost half of Q1.What does that mean? Less than $3.6 but more than $3.0? What about QTD 65% higher than Q1. But we don;t know what Q1TD was? Again looks like $3 MM and change per month. Then we get lost 2 weeks more like $45 to $50 MM run rate or slightly under a $1 MM per week? So the question is is it going to bounce around or grow somewhat consistently. Greg always suggest the latter. I get some comfort from the new hire. His pharma history is superb. So let's say April was $3 MM and May & June are $3.5 MM each then $10 MM is doable. If I am reading Greg's comments correctly then $10 MM plus is likely for Q2. Basically back on tract from where I stand. But why the morse code. Just say what April and QTD sales are and put this to rest. Jan/Feb were slow and likely information that was known by management at the last conference call. To me this is the bigger issue. I own several pharma that had weak Jan/Feb this year. Most are indicating that march and April have shown improvement and typically back on track. For a drug that is almost 100% reimbursed I don;t understand the slow uptake. The trajectory needs to improve.
Operations needs are different that research leadership.Need both empowered.Hopefully this evolution is ongoing now.
Will not happen on the run rate they provided of 50M. They are doing 30M already and still losing 15M per qtr. BE is around 33M per qtr. In other words an additional 20M in revenue will not wipe a 60M negative cash flow.
Good CEO's surround themselves with good people. Dr D has a horrific reputation amongst his peers and the investment community. If you have access just ask you will get an earful.
Unfortunately Omeros is not alone in not having a complete CEO. Most CEO are competence in at least one aspect of the job, that is why they have the job, but sometimes their lack of competence in a single area can cause problems for the company and/or stock. Maybe Dr. D will grow into the position, even Steve Jobs was fired as the CEO in the beginning, but the stock price may suffer in the short term while he is learning.
I agree - the Q1 sales miss is incidental, but the rest are valid issues. He has actually been bragging about the GPCR platform for more than 2 years - they supposedly have a patented lock on numerous drug targets, but have no licensing for any of them? Omidria has been approved for sale in Europe since May of last year - you can argue that it takes time to negotiate foreign marketing deals, but they should have been pursuing partners while it was being reviewed. I'm not sure how large the EU opportunity for Omidria is, but if you go through all the expense and time to get a drug approved and then just let it sit for a year (as the patent clock ticks away), that is not a good sign for management competence.
we can make all the excuses we want. bottom line is that CEO/company are not delivering results.
To me that's what this sell off is really about. Market expects slower Omidria sales and likely need for stock offering at some point. Keep hearing partnership deals coming, but nothing on that front