doubt that the sec would be spend a lot of time on this maybe the dollar amounts are to small. I had chtp and two weeks before the buyout the volume and price swings was insane. The day before the news I had closed my qcor position and buy a lot of chtp, and the next day it was up.
If its a buyout, then somebody is going to get a visit from the SEC.
It will be interesting to see if we fade thru out the day. If we fade then I suspect a rumor, if we stay at current/higher levels then good news pending.
I like to think buyout. Maybe he does not want to sell shares this low to cover his stock option purchase and selling shares to pay the tax liability. Not sure how many shares will need to be sold if any to cover the option and tax liability, maybe none or a lot. So if you sell the company top price on the shares your selling. Odds are this is not it, but it would be nice.
might take some profits and play a trade with a few shares.
We should hear news about one of the trials first half of 2015 (if six months is enough time based on estimated complete date). Omeros is not the sponsor but a collaborator.
Effects of Pioglitazone, a PPARgamma Receptor Agonist, on the Abuse Liability of Oxycodone
Estimated Enrollment: 20
Study Start Date: August 2010
Estimated Study Completion Date: December 2014
Estimated Primary Completion Date: December 2014 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
Not sure when this will be released maybe this year or next year.
Pioglitazone for Heroin and for Nicotine Dependence
Estimated Enrollment: 120
Study Start Date: March 2011
Estimated Study Completion Date: February 2016
Estimated Primary Completion Date: February 2015 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
surprised it help the price, seen 20 thousand shares push this stock 50 cents before. Maybe the owner selling shares to raise cash, his 60 days to exercise the option will or has ended. We should hear about the options as what was done. My guess the board gave him an extension.
I have admired your due diligence and insights re OMER and Omidria; but am reminded of the phrase "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing". I have yet to see real-world validation of this story from either medical or pharmaceutical professionals. It would be welcome especially in light of the stunningly arrogant silence of this management.
I will have more questions on the event of any pop in this stock when "they" provide the 'shock & awe' theatrics re Q4/early intro,, Euro situation, etc.
they should ask the patient not the physician. Compounds are not FDA approved as there is no trial. As a consumer I would go with the FDA approved drug that is proven to be the better drug. A physician has nothing to gain by using compounds just days of defending their decision. We will know once the product is available on the acceptance of the omidria. We need to see 1 Q of sales data. Since the drug is paid 100% and Medicare is paying and additional % for the paperwork I would bet that majority of the physician will accept the drug. Saves time on compound request and the omidria trial data is excellent.
after launch we will know what % do not like to break hold habits. The younger physician will use the newer drugs as they are current on developments in the fields, and X number of the older ones will want to hold out (but without another FDA approved drug to use the holdouts might be small. It would be harder to capture market share if there was an FDA drug omeros was trying to take market share from).
With the long wait for the launch and about 4 mil procedures (1 mil a Q on average with over half government, would be 465mil) I expect a full Q revenue to be from 100-300mil. The 100mil would be getting close to 50% of the Medicare business for the Q. The 300 mil would be if the physician were to accept the drug without a major fight. I do not see 100% usage as the company is targeting the larger physician groups. Sales under 100mil after 6 months of market will be disappointing. The sales will support what the physician acceptance will be at launch. With worldwide approval imo we will break the peak sales given by analyst.
It will take time for doctors to begin to use it. Old habits are difficult to break and nobody wants to be the first to try something. The reason Omer is targeting larger clinics is because it's more cost effective and if you can get these doctors on board others will need to follow suit. The reimbursement is huge as that will help get quicker adoption of Omidria.
Building a world class biotech here, it takes some time
We should remember that most of these surgeries are done by high volume doctors, so they get into a comfort pattern. Something new, even if better requires a change. Even the billing change will cause issues as they find out which insurers will pay for Omidria. Also compounding is not that bad, there have been millions of surgeries and as far as I can tell not a lot of major adverse results from using the compounds. Watch late night TV and you will see a lot of commercials by attorneys suing on FDA approved drugs and products.
Omidria will succeed, but it may take time, many months/ few years before Omidria is the dominant drug.
As it was said by one of the paid consultants by omeros, that the good doctors will use this product for the benefit of the patient and physician. The stupid ones will retire or find a new career. If I was an attorney I would try to get the omeros sales list of physicians and target any physician not on there. Now an attorney may not be able to this data but the DOJ can if they want to press charges.