I know YHOO MB and intelligent posts is a bit of an oxymoron.
The market set up is looking bad, so I will not be surprised if GHDX tests you buy in level. The prostate reimbursement and the recent DCIS article stressing watchful waiting as an option should be positives. The guidance for profitability within the next 6 month period is within the period that the market is supposed to discount. However, in this environment indiscriminate selling can hit even small stocks with limited float, like GHDX. Mutual funds and Hedge funds with redemtion requests are likely to pound the market in the short term.
You sound like you keep your buy list handy for these kinds of down drafts. I think you will get good opportunities in the next few weeks.
Ha- "not too much intellegent commentary on this board"
Show me a YHOO MB where there is, and I'll show you a totally undiscovered, low volume stock.
I got into HZNP real cheap, at that time, the posters all knew about all the issues, and the MB was a great resource. After HZNP got traction, the idiots descended onto it, and now it's full of idiots.
I bot some GHDX when it got back to even, but it's having trouble holding that. I had been a trader in ILMN, waiting for times like today to buy some, and wait for a 10-20% rise. But this time, I thot about CPHD and GHDX, and bot GHDX. I may also add some CPHD. I hope they both outperform ILMN, but I also hope the downside is over, which could be a bad guess, as the Dow drops 100 while I type.
Good buy. Probably about $10 less than the average paid by the Baker bros. There is not too much intellegent commentary on this board. Don't let it get you discouraged. There is a place for a medical diagnostics company that can squeeze unnecessary costs from the system.
There is an old adage that stocks that do well on horrible days like today are the ones that are poised to rebound when the market turns. As I write this GHDX has turned green.
I tried to tell ya fellas....down to 24 again. That is $11 down or 1/3 down for terry. Just like clock work
Certainly GHDX's guidance anticipates the proportion of market share likely to gained with Prolaris in the market with a head start. The Medicare market represents about half of the market and other insurers will come on line quickly now that CPT codes will exist. This should also help with existing receivables that were being resolved on a case by case basis.
There is room enough for both companies to capture hundreds of millions of dollars in prostate test revenue annually if this takes off, with competition between the two ultimately helping consumers. Look at GILD and ABBV's Hep C cures. Now if MYGN and GHDX don't cut each other's throats over price, they will both prosper, just like GILD and ABBV who priced similarly.
Interesting that the MYGN approval of Prolaris came out only a a day earlier. Prolaris appears to be more narrowly defines to "Low Risk" with Gleason score
this is a major catalyst for this company...don't know if it shows up in today's share price but longer term this just became a much safer more reliable investment and someday is reflected in its price...
Petenphil - good point.
He insisted -
"Since kvncmcdd "ride it up" ! call in March ,the short interest has made the most money here."
Yet the Short position at the beginning of March has since decreased by 30%.
The following posts tell us what he's doing here -
1. July 2011 (from an inconvenient poster) -
"At best, trade the ±3% daily manipulation, but to spend money borrowing shares to short them..."
His response -
"who is borrowing money? 1.3 M shares say you dont trade.Ive made plenty shorting Insmed over the years( and I have been long many times too.Because you dont understand it or dont do it doesnt make it BS.Bs is your post."
2. February 8 2013 -
"... short from $7.81 ... Target is 4.80, but I may cover at any time."
Three days later -
"My target is $4.80 but I may sell at anytime."
3. October 4 2013 -
"My reason to cover and take a 8% loss was to use that money which has been dead money for 2 very promising bios."
4. March 26 2015 -
"Today I added 4500 more to a long position 19 continue to build as my short is up 14% , Havnt covered ... For traders , I am benefitting from both sides of the trade"
He's read that Shorting is a profitable investment strategy for pre-revenue biotechs. But whereas the first question a new investor normally asks is -
"How does it work?"
- he is so profoundly intellectually-challenged that the simple intuitive leap was beyond his capabilities.
He creates the appearance of intelligence by posting wisdom from a "stock letter" to which he subscribes (it used to be CTSL). But he is incapable of participating in reasoned discussion.
The INSM Longs have made a rod for their own backs by crediting him with a financial agenda, failing to grasp the fact that they're dealing with an adult with the mind of a child.
The most effective response is never to acknowledge his existence - apart from displacing his precious posts from the top of the board by adding comments to informative threads.
Don't think so. I thought the conference call was pretty definative that 4th qtr profitability is based on CMS approval of Onco DX prostate reimbursement. I think that MYGN and GHDX approvals may come at the same time. GHDX does not discuss the specific boundaries/wording for the approval. They have on numerous occasions mentioned that the Onco Dx test is not subject to the false positives caused by specimen heterogeneity which is an issue for their competitor (some discussion of this in the MYGN comments I posted). This could clear the way for a less restrictive reimbursement profile. If so, the test will do better.
I think the big objectors are likely to be intuitive surgical, proton beam radiation manufactuers, etc. and from some Urology practices. They are highly dependent on selling expensive machines that can only be justified if the current overtreatment trends continue. The Urologists can justify overtreatment and make good fees for conducting these procedures. Insurance companies and Medicare will need to be the drivers for the GHDX prostate test to succeed.
I think the market grossly underestimates the critical need for actionable prostate cancer diagnostic tests. My investment here is based on this thesis. I think GHDX has pushed the schedule back slightly over the past year. Initially they talked in terms of CMS approval during the 2nd half 2015. Now they talk in terms of 4th Qtr. MYGN is now talking about reimbursement code approval in Late October, so the schedules are starting to suggest they will coincide.
The overall market cap of GHDX is pretty miniscule compared to the worldwide market potential for the prostate test. Even if they split the market with another diognostic firm, the potential is still great.
I have not heard them roll back the guidance of $1B in sales by 2020. The next 2 qtrs should tell whether this is going to happen.
Lucky for him he only goes short with fantasy shares.
6,277,742 shares short at the end of February / 4,372,944 shares short at the end of July.
$18.54 closing price at the end of February / $27.10 closing price at the end of July.
[ The "shorts have lost 15 Million" the clown says ! BLCHT! - they've made more then the longs because they are the longs. ] ???
This guy is giving Mormons a bad name.
It's a crying shame for GHDX investors that the major shareholder who occasionally gives us the benefit of his advice (apparently he owns 3% of the shares) saves all the really interesting stuff for the INSM board.
June 15 short interest - 4,737,887 shares
June 15 share price - $23.02
June 10 -
[ Since kvncmcdd "ride it up" ! call in March ,the short interest has made the most money here.
oh btw kvncmcdd...looking for " a reason we went up to $24 ? , " yes it was the short interest who put it there.
I am a Long + 123% and know there will be no revenues in 2015 ]
NB: A month later the early access program in France generated the first revenues.
June 12 -
[ kvnmcdd asked last Friday, Why did we go up to $24 ? ! well simply because the shorts put it there
The "shorts have lost 15 Million the clown says ! BLCHT! - they've made more then the longs because they are the longs and play both sides of the trade.
The short interest MM Longs are keeping Insmed range bound since kvncmcdd 3 months ago said ! Here we go !!! Enjoy the ride!! ]
June 30 -
[ The short interest has all the liquidity they need -dead cat Bounce or ?
Jad9000post stated... " shorts can't get anymore shares to short and can't keep a short squeeze from happening"- .....................poor jad9000 doesnt understand how the short interest is positioned,, with one blchtpost after another. ]
July 6 -
[ shorts added last week and in control. ]
July 27 -
[ The short interest has been adding for most of July but their positioning has been difficult because of the low volume. Jad9000 found a site of short interest % !!!! This tells her everything she knows nothing about! ]
July 31 short interest - 4,372,944 shares
July 31 share price - $27.10
It's truly bizarre that someone who probably needs instructions printed on his toilet paper has never woken up to the fact that he's completely out of his depth.
Corruption seems to be rife in US health care. But the Genomic leadership must surely be alive to the possibility of decision makers dragging their heels in the interests of big pharma.
My gut feeling is that either they have good reason to anticipate timely Medicare approval - or the guidance of Q4 profitability does not depend upon Medicare revenue.
You have a far better grasp of the numbers than I have. Is it feasible that Genomic could get there on the UK revenue ramp alone?
The MyGN conf call resulted in some speculation about the specific CMS approval wording. Based on some of the posts there appears to be concern that the approval will be tied to a relatively narrow Gleason score. They now appear to be looking at October t for an approval date.
While Onco Dx appears to be in a similar limbo, it appears that the the submittal timeframe advantage that Prolaris had may be evaporating. as I mentioned, I think both tests are getting alot of public comment opposition from the companies that benefit from the overtreatment of prostate cancer.
Fom Mygn May 25th
"And of course, the decision that ultimately controls Medicare coverage of Prolaris is due in the next month. Rejection is pretty much inconceivable, but the language around what kinds of cancers the test is approvable for will be important (I expect the guidance to be very conservative to begin with. The boundary to look for is between involvement of both lobes of the prostate and involvement of the seminal vesicles also. If they specify in terms of Gleason score, the boundary to look for is between 3 and 4. Since part of the case for Prolaris is that Gleason Score is unreliable, limiting prescribing based on that number would be a negative.) Firmness of language is also significant. Gentler language permits independent investigation of the test's value in near-boundary disease. "
From the MYGN Board 19 hrs ago
"I was disappointed. While the bear case remains dead (that's the thing about death; it's permanent), there wasn't anything stirring for the bulls. The best short-run news was that even though CMS approval for Prolaris was delayed Yet Again, there is now a specific date, and a promise from CMS that the terms of the LCD will not be more restrictive than the proposed coverage that's long been on the table. I'm Not A Lawyer (tm), but the case for retroactive reimbursement looks on the surface like it could succeed; that would be a nice cash gift, but of course it wouldn"
I hadn't realised he was still in XOMA - he's positively GIFTED at picking losers.
Had he not been holding GHDX I'd have been sorely tempted to have bought on the strength of the Q2 conference call.
A few of his XOMA posts:
1999 July 6 - closing price (adjusted for reverse splits) $91.88 -
(In reply to "Why did this guy place the exact same message on the Xoma board?")
[ On the Amylin Board , the Xoma board, the Insite Vision Board
Uh Oh It's Michael Murphy trying to make some sense of some poor Investments. ,,,,,excuse me I think the clown calls them fallen Angels.
Actually all of them may well turn out Ok if you can wait a bunch of years. ]
2015 July 22 -
(after news of another clinical trial failure)
[ Wedbush ... "reduced the price target to $13 (from $17), while reiterating an Outperform rating on XOMA stock. The analyst have removed her non-infectious uveitis/Behçet's revenue projections and value from her price target." ]
[ I just bought ! 20 k ! - ) ... and will sell for a 20% profit to offset my loss. XOMA has 20 M in rev a minor pipeline now and 65M in COH ( 45debt) . a fair price? well its not 88 cents. ]
[ keeping it below a dollar for good reason. Many are trapped and will be flushed. When you see an analysts say something good , the crowd will cheer 2 dollars! 20 M rev 65 coh and a much thinner pipeline., someone surely wants the diabetic indication. ]
July 22 closing price $1.00
July 23 -
[ a buyout would actually be the best option if you bought some cheap shares today - I did. The pipeline 20 M in rev deals and some cash makes this a cheap takeover candidate a couple of bucks ? Good Luck ]
July 23 closing price $1.04
July 27 -
[ Buyout ... this will pressure one to happen. The company is worth far more than 80 Million Current price) For under 200 M they can get a pipeline and some revenues,but right now the bloodbath continues. I had to buy more ]
July 27 closing price $0.82
Current price $0.75
Bang on. Newagebios also leaves a space before an exclamation mark and also sees women as inferior.
1) Hey girls, Terry should be back mid-week.
2) tweet Pam now !
They are 2 gays
1) Wow girls ! You've been busy
2) wow! catfight among the girls....
3) Wow girls! I blush....Kvncmcdd is ANGRY .....beautiful day here In Southern California, hope you all are enjoying the weather except you poor souls on the NE coast ! Market will be more lively tomorrow..
Newagebios is Terry! Who knew???
If all these posts are lies, then maybe it ISNT his niece who's been sitting there all day replacing his posts all these years while he's been surfing, and maybe it ISNT a couple of girls sunbathing on the beach and giggling while they spam boards all weekend with homophobic posts.
1) Heyfaggt, Terry "didnt post all weekend , but I did . How come you cant read? You are very stupid
2) Hey Toiletturd ! I am not your "terry". Do you live here around the clock waiting for excitement? Loser!
3) jad9000 , You so need to get a life! Your obsession with terry_insm is obvious. You know nothing about the short interest is one reason. I am not him, but enjoy watching him making you look like a fool over and over. You can not guess in investing, but you are guessing. Have a nice day
4) Terry NEVER said that. You dont know what you are talking about.
5) i am not your "terry" i will posts your stupid posts one after another till you leave
6) You dont realize terry traded the stock perfectly last June? here the post for the umpteenth time
7) I see no slur in Terry's invitation and welcome.I will continue to post his email until he returns.I have read your nasty comments regarding his wife. A lovely woman.btw- they own a home in San Francisco so you would feel very comfortable there also,so dont pass up that chance on an invite!
8) Terry is gone. His trades make you squeal. He is up 200% YTD and has posted consistently
Initially he spammed using only cloned ids of current Longs. But of late he's also been using an older id.
1. Recent Newagebios posts
July 25 -
GLBT INSM Club in attendance !
Perfect day for the beach and the boys ( straight for me)
July 20 -
The GLBT INSM Club was outstanding this weekend !
July 16 -
INSM GLBT Club was established for our persuasion but all are invited! INSMED SUBJECTS
Average analyst say $26 is the top! till next years decision
34 MEMBERS Strong
July 15 -
NEWS is great for our club kvncmcdd Thanks for all you do
July 12 -
A beautiful morning so matter what your persuasion ...
Lets get going
Price target $17
July 6 -
I am 19
with a bod to kill . I am not lez but respect all so stop writing me.
(a) Cambridge heart (most people would type "Heart")
... Terry, March 21 2006 -
answering ? AMLN flies ? Bob ? : )
did you buy some Cambridge heart ? )
... Newagebios, August 5 2007 -
Ithink there are far better bios to invest in.Cambridge heart is one I have a ton in and I suggest those here looking for better returns buy in there
... Terry July 22 2015 -
kevin , so jealous ..yes I lost 20% on XOMA but my HALO triple+ offsets it - you are such a clown Surfs up
I feel fine , Great trade eh? Stay with INSM clown boy you look foolish elsewhere
... Newagebios July 22 2015 -
so jealous kevin , so jealous ..yes I lost 20% on XOMA but my HALO triple+ offsets it - you are such a clown Surfs up
I feel fine , Great trade eh? Stay with INSM clown boy you look foolish elsewhere
(c) Rank outs
... Terry September 22 2014 -
"Blind Investing "-The mindless rank outs show clear investor ignorance. ( zipRoberts ex below ) - I sent the chart to 8 traders this morning, my short from Jess's Tuesday ! Load up post Sept 8 .......
is up 13% but ....Have more fun!
... Newagebios June 30 2008 -
Do you think any experienced investor reads the thousands of kiddie rank outs every day? Do you think anyone cares about a 43 cent stock?
17 emails and 4 phone calls. statement means Forces always come in pairs - equal and opposite action-reaction force pairs