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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

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  • whoyougoingtocallterrybusters whoyougoingtocallterrybusters Apr 8, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    Terry Dan Mooney on the VRNG ipinvestor22 and capers123 Give him a call to tell him to stop the #$%$ at (858) 274-3242

  • = 50

  • whoyougoingtocallterrybusters whoyougoingtocallterrybusters Apr 4, 2016 11:30 PM Flag

    Terry Dan Mooney on the VRNG ipinvestor22 and capers123 Give him a call to tell him to stop the #$%$ at (858) 274-3242

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM

    One area you might be right on is the analysts estimates for this quarter have come way down. Some of this is a result on last quarters tepid guidance. However, one could assume that the reimbursement software delays will be worked out providing significant upside as some of the deferred sales are captured.

    In many companies that I follow, you would do far better acting in a completely opposite manner as what the analysts are suggest. I think with few screaming buys out there, the analysts try to create opportunities for their clients.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM

    With so much of the company shares in the hands of the Baker Bros, GHDX is vulnerable to takeover, and I think it will happen at some point. However, big pharma will want more evidence that a GHDX acquisition would be accretive. As such, they are back to executing on their plan. If they show that $1b in sales by 2020 is realistic and turn the corner on profitability w growth (as they have guided to for this year), interest will pick up.

    The Supreme Court decision of a few years ago (against MYGN) is problem for GHDX. It eliminated a barrier from competitors offering similar tests for the same gene sequence. If GHDX wanted to prime the company for acquisition it would develop tests to evaluate the specific effectiveness of various drugs. I think they are shunning this space.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM

    Thank you for your thoughtful answer. I would have them explore strategic alternatives, such as selling the company to a major pharma. The pace at which this company is moving indicates a conservative strategy based, no doubt, on the need to conserve capital. Making the substantial resources of a major pharma company available to them could significantly increase the speed with which they will obtain their goals for expansion. It is currently taking too long for this company to become profitable.

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM

    What would you propose they do? They have set reasonable goals that add value to the Co. (i.e., secure medicare coverage of prostate, launch liquid biopsy, etc.). They deal in an industry that requires proof of the value of the product, so they must maintain the scientific demeanor. They have done a few investor conferences and ASHTO, so I don't fault them. There is a site that ranks biotechs on whether they are unfriendly shareholder (due to option dilution, secondaries etc.). I don't remember GHDX being high on the list in a negative context (i.e., acting in a manner that was not consistent with shareholder interests).

    Fact of the matter is that if GHDX executes on their strategic initiatives the share price will follow. They are balancing the need to build out a urology and European sales force with shareholder desires to maximize profitability.

    That said, I sold off about half my shares in January due to macro-market concerns for all US stocks. I've started adding back shares slowly.

    FL

  • Do you think the management of this company gives a wit about its shareholders. It is more like a group of academics, happily pursuing their research, hoping some day to hit it big. Expanding their markets to solidify support for their salaries, but somewhere along the line they forgot about the shareholders.

    Think that might have something to do with the performance of the stock?

  • I'll keep this short and sweet...Google "Penny Stock 101 org' signup for their free newsletter and get their next trade alert. Come back and thank me tomorrow!

  • This is a funny stock to flip every two to three months and make BANK.

    kvnmcdd

  • Reply to

    anyone have the gist of the Piper downgrade?

    by flatlander_60048 Jan 12, 2016 11:57 AM

    If you looks at the path Onco DX Breast took you can see this this downgrade is BS, probably meant to create a buying opportunity.
    Piper Jaffray downgraded Genomic Health Inc. (NASDAQ: GHDX) from Overweight to Neutral with a price target of $32.00 (from $36.00) as they shift their focus to 2017.

    Analyst William Quirk commented: "We are downgrading Genomic Health on a contrarian call as we look beyond the 2016 reacceleration to 2017 expectations. We believe revenue growth in 2017 will slow from 2016 as Prostate and OUS face tougher comps. Specifically, we believe private payer reimbursement will be limited as we remain cautious on the test's ability to predict disease recurrence. With NICE and German ODX Breast reimbursement also comping in 2017, we anticipate it will be incrementally challenging to drive accelerated growth above 2016 levels. Finally, the stock is up 43% since the recent bottom and is trading above the peer group (2.6x FY17E EV/rev vs. peers median of 1.7x) despite ~10.1% growth in 2017 (peer median is ~38% 2017 growth). Accordingly, we believe shares are fairly valued and are downgrading to a Neutral from Overweight. Our price target is now $32 (was $36) based on 2.5x FY17E EV/Rev (was 2.75x)."The firm cut FY 2016 EPS from $0.10 to $0.00 and FY 2017 EPS from $0.31 to $0.29.

    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Genomic Health Inc. click here. For more ratings news on Genomic Health Inc. click here.
    Shares of Genomic Health Inc. closed at $31.66 yesterday.

  • Market getting wacked again today. Ray Dalio was on CNBC discussing how we are in a typical debt cycle. As I have mentioned before, GHDX makes sense in this environment since they are selling into over leveraged debt carrying developed markets with older populations. These governments are desperate to reign in health care spending costs. GHDX is offering tools to make these expenditures more efficiently and hopefully save money by avoiding expensive over treatment. While GHDX may take a hit in the short term as the overall markets decline, the low float will make it hard for big institutional buyers to establish positions without driving prices up. Therefore, there are huge risks trying to trade in and out of GHDX.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Biotech getting wacked

    by flatlander_60048 Jan 11, 2016 10:13 AM

    True, except the IBB is basically back at sept. 29 lows whereas ghdx is still above $31.

  • anyone have the gist of the Piper downgrade?

  • Reply to

    Biotech getting wacked

    by flatlander_60048 Jan 11, 2016 10:13 AM

    I tend to disagree. The uptrend at the end of December correlates almost to the day that GHDX was included into the IBB. There has been a pronounced increase in volume ever since.

    That said liquid biopsy is in the news and is garnering appreciable excitement. Witness the Grail news yesterday. GHDX is not looking for the proteins that are markers of an existing cancer as Grail claims to be. Rather it appears that GHDX is going to provide a genomic profile to identify potential susceptibility to cancer and also (probably more importantly) provide a pathway as to which treatment pathway is likely to be most effective.

    I believe this is GHDX's strong suit. They are focused on providing actionable data.

    2016 could well be a challenging year do to macro conditions. However, as I've indicated before. companies that result in health care cost savings (by aiding in selection of the best treatment options) are likely to be in a sweet spot.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Biotech getting wacked

    by flatlander_60048 Jan 11, 2016 10:13 AM

    My guess is their progress with the liquid biopsy test is the main reason stock went from $20 to $35 in little over a month. This could be a game changer. It looks like ILMN is behind GHDX, there are a few very small companies like BIOC that are already selling their tests, but I'm not aware of any large players who will get to market sooner than Genomic, are you?

  • Reply to

    Biotech getting wacked

    by flatlander_60048 Jan 11, 2016 10:13 AM

    A good time to add more today!

  • Given the positive liquid biopsy news, it looks like the market is using the overall weakness in biotech this morning to try to shake out some weak hands in GHDX. Probably better not to watch day to day action too closely.

    FL

  • While GHDX saw a nice runup a couple weeks ago when they were added to the IBB, I think we saw the opposite effect yesterday. The late day sell-off on high volume had all the earmarks of being associated with ETF's selling off tom meet redemption requests.

    Either way it looks like GHDX is moving into a new growth phase just when the wheels look to be coming off the market as a whole. I thought of selling some of my position a couple days ago since I thought the downdraft could spread to GHDX. I decided against this for the following reason. The news flow is likely to start improving appreciably this quarter. With the limited float re-entry into GHDX at a later date could be expensive. We are seeing upgrades with higher target prices. The guidance that they will more than triple revenue in the next four years suggests growth in the 20%+ range. I believe we are headed into a time when growth will be hard to come by. Finally, governments across the world are in serious debt and many are facing a rapidly aging demographic population with maladies such as cancer taking a bigger bite out of their health care appropriations. How will these governments manage to both take care of their aging populations and control their budgets? By spending much more efficiently. This means limiting over spending. GHDX is ideally situated at this crossroads.

    For these reasons, I've decided to hold despite the impending market turmoil.

    FL

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