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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    I expect form 4s in a few days

    by make_up_your_own_damn_name Feb 5, 2014 11:19 AM

    That would be very bad...I am out first thing tomorrow. Just can't keep losing money on this stock.

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    you gave your nonsense away with early-stage CGIX

  • WOW, what a drop....down how much now. NO WAY this does not go lower...Like trying to catch a dropping knife...insider selling is never a good sign. Giggle Giggle

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    Your DD is obviously poor. Breast colon and prostate exams from GHDX are the best science.

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    At the time I did my DD on GHDX, I also looked into taking positions in CGIX and MYGN. In the end, I held out for a position in GHDX today. I hear a lot about CGIX being the premier molec Dx co. when compared to GHDX but at this time I felt GHDX was a better fit for me.

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    1st time poster on GHDX. I did extensive DD many months back. Placed a market order well well below ask on long outdated calls and was surprised to see them fill today. Never thought it would happen. Sometimes a little patience pays off unless the story has completely changed. But I do hope the breast and prostate studies and exams pays off nicely for them and that the prostate test actually makes a huge difference in patient management similar to the MYGN prostate exam.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    I had pretty much the same take away. I thought the spending ramp for prostate was a positive since it is in response to stronger than expected demand. They are definitely under promising hopefully to set up an over delivery in a few quarters. The lack of catalysts you cite can change quickly. I would not be surprised if the NICE OncoTypeDX Breast endorsement opens several doors in western Europe. Most of Europe is looking for ways to cut healthcare costs and trimming unnecessary chemotherapy can be a strong incentive. I can see that it might take several months to negotiate with payers so announcements of new payment agreements could hit at any time.

    I think that GHDX is very conservative and has only built projection of current growth rates into their guidance. They will have to reach the tipping point (sales staff learning curve etc.) before the growth rate can ramp.

    FL

  • For those interested, I'd recommend reading the transcript of the most recent c.c. The GHDX team is laying a solid foundation for future growth. The international footprint is great and OncoDx-for prostate will be a grand slam when traction takes hold. Great level to accumulate shares, when viewed in the context of the chart over the past 3 years. No quick turn around here. I'll add more if the price gets even better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    High volume this morning

    by flatlander_60048 Feb 5, 2014 10:44 AM

    Washout? It didn't even trade 1 m shares....

    No way this thing isn't making a 52 week low this week or next.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I expect form 4s in a few days

    by make_up_your_own_damn_name Feb 5, 2014 11:19 AM

    Is that where the insiders start selling stock? Figures

    Maybe GHDX needs a new CEO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    I agree....On the last recent dip in early Jan I bought shares and then traded out of them when the current market rout began, but re-entered my position this morning. I usually don't trade all that much, but have learned that bio-tech often gets hammered more than the mkt. averages when ill winds blow. Just got lucky, really. I'll add more if the sp gets worse. Long term, this will get to $50+ without much trouble.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Meh - Guidance

    by mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM

    Long-term hold and add here. They have validation studies and pubs due mid-year for DCIS and Prostate that will drive reimbursement. They have NICE to build on, which is huge. The investment they're making now is heavier than anticipated, but the end result is $1.3 billion in revs. They said 10% prostate end of this year. When prostate takes off, so will the share price. In January presentation, they announced prostate revs at

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • frankyassissi: we're both bulls on ghdx but here's the reality. I was optimistic that guidance for FY'14 would come in much better; so did the street. In the cc from last Jan '13 the co. guided that OncoDx for prostate should begin to get traction by Q4 2013. I think the sell off is justified. Probably a good opportunity to begin to build a position, and add more if things get ugly. The s.p. might be stagnant for some months, no? Doesn't appear to be any near-term catalyst here. Ideas?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Today selling is by inpatient investors getting out ...Fundamental is good..this company earning grow slow due to heavy investing for future.,,Your company is in much better shape now with Prostate test kit...earning is coming...later in year..very low risk investment if you can wait ...Hold your shares

  • familiar names, "A" catagory

  • Reply to

    Baker bros

    by flatlander_60048 Feb 3, 2014 6:40 PM

    I'm long and have no reason to panic anyone out of GHDX. I admire the Baker Bros investing acumen. However, the fact remains that when more than 50% of the shares are held by just 2 institutions it devalues any say that the minority shareholders might have. Right now I have no reason to suspect that the Baker Bros interests are not aligned with the minority shareholders.

    With regard to the earthquake prone issue, GHDX does not think this is a minor issue and they list it in their annual report as a concern. I would not be surprised if sales volumes take off in Western Europe, if we see another lab facility being launched overseas in the next couple of years.

    Just because someone looks objectively at both positives and negatives does not mean that they are a shill. This investment will play out over many years so I do not feel compelled to have to hype it up.

    FL

  • Looks like a washout. Added a little more in the $26's. Its funny that a company like Amazon can forstall profitability for years while they build their competitive advantage but there is zero tolerance for the same type of a build out to occur at GHDX.

    Its interesting to note that MYGN was charting similarly to GHDX but broke out this morning on better than expected earnings.

    FL

  • Reply to

    PT this year 56+

    by frankyassissi Feb 3, 2014 8:46 AM

    Guidance has a lot of moving parts, but I think you are right that things do not really pick up until after the 4th qtr or in 2015 after prostate validation tests are published and the sales staff ramp (urology and western Europe) stabilizes.

    Interesting part of the call is that competition really isn't a concern. Prostate test method has been patented. The prostate test is meeting an unmet need and has encouraged them to ramp up the sales staff faster than had initially been anticipated. Wall Street wants immediate profits, however, I'd rather see GHDX establish a moat by getting the sales force in place, getting validation studies supporting the prostate test and getting payer approval coding in place. Once these things are in place anyone could sell the product.

    I think you are right there will be a buy opportunity do to lack of patience.
    There is not that much float so it is a good chance to snag shares at a discount. When the pieces are in place this thing will move.

  • Reply to

    PT this year 56+

    by frankyassissi Feb 3, 2014 8:46 AM

    earnings were just ok .FY14 guidance to ($0.95)-(0.75) EPS & revenue guidance to $278-286 million.Although growth is steady and co is investing in the future,Wall street wants more.I do suspect an attack - no doubt a buying opp if you are long a couple of years.Myriad Genetics acquired Crescendo Bioscience and is up.... strong.consolidation in this sector (and the Bakers never take a cheap price unless GHDX goes private). I only see your 56 if there is a takeover Good Luck

GHDX
26.83-0.58(-2.12%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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